Zheng Yongnian: The Sino -US trade war is just a matter of firepower

Professor Zheng Yongnian gave a speech at the Drunk Forest Club on the Title of the Sino -US trade war and his future.(Photo by Liang Weikang)

Zheng Yongnian pointed out that when the trade relations between the two countries develop to a degree of non -deceleration, the trade war will occur.As long as the cold war between China and the United States does not occur, the economic and trade relations between the two sides will continue, and the issue of the trade war will always be there.

Professor Zheng Yongnian, director of the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore, believes that the deficit and surplus of trade are dynamic and will not be transferred with the will of leaders. As long as there are economic and trade exchanges between two countries, this problem will exist.The Sino -US trade war will never end, just the problem of firepower.

Zheng Yongnian gave a speech at the Drunk Forest Club yesterday afternoon at the Drunk Forest Club.He pointed out that when the trade relations between the two countries have developed to a degree of unrest, the trade war will erupt.As long as the Cold War between China and the United States does not occur, the economic and trade relations between the two sides will continue, and the issue of the trade war will always be there. Just like the economic cycle, it will explode when it comes.

Zheng Yongnian pointed out that the American academic community has previously stated that the trade deficit was not caused by China, but the problem of the United States itself.In this regard, he teased: (American) Capitalist, you can't control it. How can Wall Street listen to the White House?Historically, it is always the White House listening to Wall Street.

Zheng Yongnian also emphasized that Wall Street only used US President Trump to put pressure on China to make China more open.Therefore, as long as China does not close itself, capital will not abandon the Chinese market.

China is the last territory of world capitalism. Although India also has a huge market, India is difficult to open and has great resistance.Therefore, he believes that China's most powerful is not a political system or military forces, but its market forces.The absolute number of the middle class in China has caught up with the United States, but the number of middle class in the United States has continued to narrow.

Zheng Yongnian said that if the Sino -US trade war cannot be resolved and the influence of its output cannot be reduced, the world will suffer.For example, the United States and China are now the world's first and second -largest economies, and most of the economic structures are related to external.Therefore, if the two sides are still deadlocked, this will hit the global industrial chain, especially Asian countries.

Some industrial chains will transfer Southeast Asian countries

Although some industrial chains will be transferred to other countries in Southeast Asia, such as Indonesia and Vietnam.However, this cannot completely move the entire industry chain out of China, because the formation of the entire industrial chain is not a day or two, and it cannot be easily replaced.He emphasized: If it is replaced, the cost will be very high.

In response to China and the United States yesterday, they agreed to suspend each other's new tariffs and restarted negotiations, and strived to reach an agreement within 90 days. Zheng Yongnian said that China wanted to take this opportunity to win more time coordination to make the market more open.

He also said that if the two sides have no willingness to stop in advance, this dinner will definitely not happen.There must be a result of eating, otherwise eat it in vain?

He revealed that when Trump met with Chinese President's leaders in Beijing for the first time, everyone had realized that Sino -US trade was a big problem.He expressed doubts about whether China and the United States could reach an agreement within 90 days.

Zheng Yongnian said that although he is not optimistic about the negotiation between China and the United States, there is a very important information show that both sides say that each other is willing to continue negotiations, otherwise the trade war will continue.Since you are willing to negotiate, it is a good thing.

However, Zheng Yongnian believes that the 100 -day plan formulated earlier was a good opportunity for the adjustment of the relationship between China and the United States, but at the bureaucratic level, it was fooled.If the 100 -day plan was taken seriously as today, the trade war would not happen.

Zheng Yongnian also pointed out that as early as the Chinese leader served as the vice chairman of the country, he had published an article focusing on the implementation of the CCP officials.Therefore, he hopes that the Chinese leaders can publish the article again so that the importance of implementation can be passed to every official.

In response to whether China can truly implement the open plan in the next three months, Zheng Yongnian responded: I think it is vital, very important and very important a hell; hellip; we have no fantasies that the United States can change China, only China can change ourselves.

Yesterday's lecture was co -organized by the Drunk Forest Forest Club and Wulu Club. The lecture was chaired by Professor Pan Guoju, the director of the Permanent Institute of Higher Institute of Nanyang University of Technology.