Guo Liangping: The last chance to save Sino -US relations

Current affairs perspective

All sectors of the world have high hopes for the meeting of Trump MDash; China Leaders' meeting before the G20 summit of the 20th G20, hoping that the two sides can reach a compromise to prevent the trade war from further expanding, thereby avoiding dragging the world economy into recession.The two sides were very serious about the summit and made enough preparations.China lowering its posture, at the request of the United States, proposed a list of 142 concessions; and Trump also made a tone, saying that if the two sides can reach the remaining four or five items, the United States may not expand its tariffs.But the situation is stronger than people, and China and the United States are structural contradictions.

Politicalization is the main reason for the difficulty of resolving the Sino -US trade war. Both sides have strong political forces to political conflicts.Since the Galaxy incident in the 1990s, China has been suspected of trying to suppress China and not allowing China to rise.Therefore, in the beginning, China took the trade war as a political war. It levied taxes on soybean and other agricultural products and specifically crack down on Trump's ticket warehouse.However, Trump is the last chance to save Sino -US relations.

There has been a strong anti -China forces in the United States, and in recent years, it has formed a consensus between the two parties, left, and right. It is believed that China is the biggest threat to the American lifestyle and the international order based on American values.The lobbying big capital groups have signs of turning.Only Trump himself has always looked at the trade war from the perspective of businessmen. For example, he did not distinguish between me to start a war, and only sells more to win or lose. Sometimes he is even worse than China.

Attracottic U.S. President

Yes, Trump wants to make the United States great again and maintain the status of the boss. To this end, he does not mind the trouble of China's economy, but his calculations do not include factors that include ideology and values.This is very different from those surrounded by high ginsengs, cabinets, and US Congress, think tanks, and interest groups.These people are really laying a new cold war because they don't like China very much.And Trump is not disgusted with Mdash; mdash; in fact he is envious of China.

Trump is an atypical US president who has not met for hundreds of years in American political history.His rise has broken almost all the rules of US politics.He shouted to make the United States great, but he was the most American president.He is not restricted to the US national ideas and values, moral standards, and political correct behavior rules.He is more likely to make conventional decisions than traditional American politicians.His decision to hold a summit with Kim Jong -un is a prominent manifestation.

In this decision, he has swept the old thinking and clichés of the American politics for decades, which reversed the situation of the Korean Peninsula. This was not expected by anyone.After San Tao Saudi Arabia, he bragged his relationship with Kim Jong -un many times, saying that they fell in love at first sight and fell in love.The mainstream media in the United States is very disgusted with this statement, and believes that the US president and a wicked man fall in love are a shame.

After the Chinese leader's Boao speech, Trump tweeted him and said that they could do a lot of remarkable things together.This shows that he does not care about the difference between ideology and social system.In the murder of Saudi reporter Kashuji, he tried to get rid of Saudi Crown Prince for $ 110 billion in arms orders and his family's commercial interests in Saudi Arabia.Both the US media and Kashuji's fiancee have accused Trump accusing Trump's reaction in this incident without morality.He was very obsessed with Putin, tried to do a good job of relationships with Russia, and discussed publicly. He held a closed door with Putin in the Tong Russian investigation.

The US media commented that his relationship with the dictator is better than the leaders of the democratic allies, and get along more, accusing him of abandoning the basic values and beliefs of the United States, destroying the long -term efforts of the United States, based on the principles of liberalism and the principle of liberalism.Standard international order, national reputation and traditional friendship, and make itself a laughingstock of the world.He is in stark contrast to his former President Obama: Obama insists that the United States is the ideal of the city on the top of the mountain or the world's lighthouse. It regards the values and beliefs of the United States as the highest interests of the country, but Trump has a lot of money in business interests.

Let's take a look at the American politics after President Trump.The basic consensus on the US policies mentioned above will continue, and even become stronger after Trump steps down.The inevitable return of traditional politicians will also increase the conflict of ideology and values to the main theme in Sino -US relations, so that the business interests will retreat.

On the Democratic Party, Hillary has already advocated that the New Cold War has just begun; on the Republican Party, Vice President Pence's New Cold War Declaration on October 4 is full of ideological gunpowder.Economic and trade interests.The main tone of the next election campaign has just been formed.

Grasp Trump to do a good job in Sino -US relations

It can be predictable that Trump will be all traditional politicians of Pence and Hillary, which will play traditional political cards to resort to the values and moral beliefs of American people.After Trump, the United States will definitely chaos anyway, and once again divide enemy friends with ideology and political system.Trade conflicts and other contradictions will still happen, but different democratic countries similar to ideology and values are different. Any differences and contradictions with China will rise to national security issues, and even be regarded as a struggle between justice and evil.

This has a deep public opinion foundation in the United States with a strong concept of religious and idealism. It is an American habitual way of thinking and a discourse system that dominates the mainstream media in the United States.Politicians in the election campaign will inevitably cater to these votes, resulting in a situation of right, wrong, and difficulty in China; the relationship between management and the United States will become very difficult.

Therefore, in the few years of Trump's reign, China has worked hard to adjust its relations with the United States, so that it will put it on a new track, maximize the induction of negative interaction, and expand the scope of positive cooperation.

This is because Trump is most likely to get rid of the influence of traditional politics, and such a president is difficult to reproduce, so it is likely to be the last chance of China.China must pretend to be economic and trade issues rather than political issues (and it must be installed). Until the United States realized that it is more beneficial to the cold war to the Cold War, so as to go down the donkey, it also attributes it as economic and trade issues.

However, the conditions are the benefits of sufficient the United States, so that it is interested in working with China to find new and win -win coexistence and interaction methods.China's new diplomacy emphasizes a win -win situation and the community of destiny, but the main target is developing countries.These concepts should be used more in developed countries, especially in the United States.Obviously, in Sino -US relations, the United States did not feel a win -win situation, but was deceived by being used, disadvantaged, and being deceived.China should greatly enhance the sense of gain in the United States. Trump likes to win. China should find a way to cater to his vanity and make some concessions without being afraid of losing face.

Both Canada and Mexico made concessions during the re -negotiations between the North American Free Trade Agreement, neither of them felt like they lost their face because they were businessmen.China insisted on the trade war to return to teeth and Feng to the end, mainly because it was used as a political war, and it was pulled with national dignity.To solve the problem, as the Singapore Prime Minister Li Xianlong said, the two sides should talk about technical problems, not to talk about political issues.

To see the huge interests obtained from China in the past few decades: the huge market, capital and advanced technologies in the United States; the international economic order, international organizations and security frameworks provided by the United States;A large number of high -precision talents cultivated for China and so on.

It can be said that without the opening of the United States to China, there is no China today.And if you can save Sino -US relations, China will continue to gain benefits.Looking at Sino -US relations from the perspective of this realism, you will be willing to make compromise and concessions.

The author is a senior researcher at the East Asia Institute of the National University of Singapore