Dai Qingcheng: Why did the Hong Kong property market ＂reduce spicy＂?

Houses are the top priority of social issues in Hong Kong.Recently, property prices in Hong Kong have fallen by nearly 20 % from high, and negative impact on society have begun to emerge.The Hong Kong Government announced the relaxation of , so far, it has been unknowingly over a month.

Throughout the market response, Hong Kong people's confidence in the property market is slightly enhanced.Taking the first -hand residential market as an example, the pace of buyers' entry into the market after the October Policy Report was announced significantly.As of November 21, there were 441 transactions from the month, exceeding 344 in October, and hit a new high in three months.In terms of second -hand housing markets, the transactions have also increased.For example, the Yuen Long District, which is popular with the first home owners, has surged nearly 40 % compared to the same period of October, the same period of October, in October.However, the increase in the volume of the property market does not mean that property prices have also picked up.On the week of the Policy Report, the leading index of Central Plains City, which reflects the latest second -hand housing prices in Hong Kong, rose by 0.23%, ending the continuous decline in the past, reflecting that the "reduction of spicy reduction" has indeed brought a little hope to the silent market.Unexpectedly, the latest announcement of the Central Plains City's leading index fell by 1.46%, the largest decline in more than three months, and returned to the level of 2017 six and a half years, in 2017.All signs show that The actual effect of "reduction" measures is not as good as the abroad expectations.Most Hong Kong people are still cautious about the prospects of the property market, and they dare not rush into the market, causing property prices to continue to fall.In recent days, many people have complained that the "spicy" measures in the Hong Kong government's property market have not been insufficient, and it will help stimulate the rise in property prices.However, the property market is strictly economic.The trend of the property market is closely related to the economic environment.Hong Kong's property prices have continued to fall. Rather than saying that the "spicy" measures in the Hong Kong government have not been effective, it is better to say that the economic situation in Hong Kong has developed structural problems, which has led to the lack of rising property prices.First of all, Hong Kong's imports and exports have continued to decline in the past year, and it was not slightly improved until last month; investment has also slowed down in the second quarter.In the "three -headed carriage" that promotes the recovery of Hong Kong's economic recovery, it only relies on consumer support.However, the Hong Kong retail market still shows weakness after the epidemic clearance, and has little help to the economy.Therefore, in addition to the Hong Kong Government's early response to the weak economic data, the economic growth forecast for the whole year is 3.2%, and many big banks have similar practices.For example, Hang Seng Bank said last week that based on data -based expectations, Hong Kong's economic growth forecast this year was reduced from 4%to 3.3%.The financial market is generally lacking in confidence in the economic prospects of Hong Kong, and the property market naturally rebounds weakly.Secondly, in recent years, the United States has raised interest rates in succession, which has prompted Hong Kong's interest rates to continue to be high.On the one hand, the decline in property prices in Hong Kong has reduced the initial cost of the public's home property; but on the other hand, due to the rise in interest, it means that the expenditure of the monthly supply of people buyers has increased greatly.This is also the main reason why many Hong Kong people still dare not buy a building so far.What's more, the current deposit interest rate of Hong Kong banks is generally as high as 5 %.Citizens deposit cash in the bank for regular deposits, and they can receive 5 % interest income every year.On the contrary, the return on buying a buying rental rent is only 3 %.Right now is not a good time to buy a floor.Some investors with houses even sold residential units, and then deposited cash to banks for deposit investment.In this case, property prices in Hong Kong are also difficult to rise.Of course, there are also opinions that the measures of "reducing spicy" will play a positive role. One of the most important driving forces is due to a large number of mainland Chinese experts come to Hong Kong.According to the latest data released by the Hong Kong Government, tens of thousands of expertise have now lived and work in Hong Kong through the talent plan.According to the "reduction of spicy" measures, these people no longer need to prepare a large fund for tax payment in Hong Kong, and they can get the same treatment as Hong Kong people when they buy the property for the first time.If one to two adults consider buying a building, it will bring strong support to the Hong Kong property market.The problem is that the prospects of the Hong Kong property market are increasingly optimistic about the outside world, which also affects the intentional intention of these people.According to the figures released by the Hong Kong Government on Monday, the official report has received only 132 application cases about "exemption and then levy", which reflects that the attractiveness of "reduction of spicy" measures is not so great.In fact, after the global resurrection of the world earlier this year, the economy of Hong Kong and Mainland China did not have a strong rebound like external expectations, but continued to be sluggish.If the Hong Kong property market used to face the problem of "overheating", too much hot money came to fry Hong Kong house prices, and now Hong Kong is facing the problem of "too cold".Due to a series of adverse factors such as interest rate hikes and economic downturn, the pressure on the overall property price of Hong Kong is increasing.Originally, the decline in property prices in Hong Kong is a good thing for society.Hong Kong has ranked first in the "highest cities in global housing prices" for many years.Hong Kong migrant workers have a heavy burden. It can only buy a small unit for 20 years.Price prices have fallen, and citizens are more likely to buy business.However, if property prices fall again, it will have a serious impact on Hong Kong's economy.After all, the real estate industry's contribution to the Hong Kong economy has been impressive. Recently, there have been two consecutive landmarks, which has brought great financial pressure on the revenue of the Hong Kong government warehouse.The Hong Kong Government refused to revoke the "hot recruitment" of the property market in the policy report last month. The reason was that the property price would be soared as soon as the "full withdrawal".However, from the perspective of the sluggish performance of "reduced spicy" in the past month, this worry seems to be a bit redundant.The probability of the Hong Kong Government announced next year should be higher and higher.