The Guangdong city, known as the "World Factory", Dongguan, China, has fallen cliffs after the epidemic control and control of the epidemic control this year, and the economic growth rate is at the bottom of Guangdong Province.This GDP trillion -level city has risen rapidly after China's reform and opening up. Why is it now "stalling"?Where will Dongguan go?
Walking in the streets and towns in Dongguan City, Guangdong Province, the notice of renting on the outer wall of the factory can be seen everywhere, as well as vacant shops.Even if it was a working day, the people on the small town roads were sparse. Except for a few small shop owners who opened the door to do business, the street seemed to be silent.
Mr. Zhang, a taxi driver, sighed that even during the crown disease, Humen High -speed Railway Station was still bustling, and people came and went."There are a lot of people who come now, and I can't get guests there."
Ms. Lu, Ms. Lu, who provides short -term accommodation, also said that more than 20 -thirds of her dormitory rooms in the dormitory of her dormitory are empty this year."I used to be busy with both of my husband and I. Now the business is bleak, and he has to find a temporary worker to subsidize the home."
Chang'an Town is a major town of manufacturing in Dongguan. During its heyday, he settled in more than 1,600 hardware mold manufacturers.Zhang Weilun, the founder of Deweks mold technology manufactured by high -essential hardware mold, in 2017, it was aimed at the complete supply chain and industrial agglomeration scale there in 2017. There are factories in the local area.
The town is now an excessive factory building, and the rental notice is everywhere. In this scene, Zhang Weilun said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that it was in a strong contrast with the "one -bedroom difficult" situation in 2021.
He recalled that at that time, the crown disease epidemic was still running around the world. Multi -countries were in China where the economic and social activities had returned to normal for the suspension of work, discontinuation of production, and suspension of business.As a "world factory", the export -oriented economy of Dongguan directly benefits, which also ushered in the "high light moment" in second -tier cities.
The GDP (GDP) in Dongguan region exceeded trillion in 2021, reaching 108.555 trillion yuan (RMB, Same as S $ 202.3 billion), an increase of 8.2%year -on -year.The fourth GDP cities have also become the 15th "double thousand city" with the 15th GDP over trillions of GDP and a population of over 10 million.
The booming manufacturing industry has attracted a large number of workers, and many companies have also expanded their business to cope with additional orders. The demand for factory buildings has surged, and rents have risen by 10 to 20%.
Sweet orders
However, this "highlight moment" seems to have come to an end.Facing the global economic downturn, weak domestic and foreign demand, the US interest rate hike, and the Sino -US trade war, many Dongguan companies complained that orders for orders this year have decreased sharply, and the turnover has fallen sharply.
Taking Zhang Weilun's company as an example, customers are mainly from Europe and the United States, including some auto manufacturing giants. The orders he received this year decreased by 30%year -on -year, and even half of the companies were less than half.
He said: "Each car has thousands of hardware accessories. When the economy is not downturn, when the frequency of people changing cars, auto manufacturers will consider reducing project development or using existing molds in the new car to produceAccessories lead to a reduction in order "
Another Dongguan Enterprise Yingfei Electronics, which is engaged in the processing and manufacturing of injection plastic accessories, has 70 % of European and American customers. The company's executive director Wang Yingying bluntly said that the company's orders have "fallen cliff -type" this year, and the turnover has decreased by about half.
Wang Yingying said that due to insufficient orders, half of the company has not started in recent years, and the number of employees has also been reduced from more than 500 people to 200 people: "When we have more orders, all 90 machines have not operated enough production.. Now the business is bleak, and the workers are wiped out every day. "
In addition to the traditional processing and manufacturing industry, some emerging industries in Dongguan are also facing the same dilemma for the Haiwang Automation Technology Corporation, which specialize in customized automation robots for enterprises.Xie Shaoqi, the founder of the company, pointed out that the prosperity of the automation industry and the traditional manufacturing industry is actually interrelated. The automation industry mainly helps enterprises to save manpower and improve efficiency and capacity.If the order of enterprises is reduced, it will not invest on automation equipment.
"This is a chain effect. They have good business and our business is good. They are not good, we are even worse." His company orders also fell more than half this year.
Due to insufficient external demand, more Dongguan companies have shifted to domestic sales, which has led to the "internal rolls" of individual manufacturing industries and form a vicious competition.
Gong Fuzhou, the head of Dongguan Foga Xuan Precision Hardware Mold Company, focusing on the Chinese market, described that the industry is facing the problem of "wolf more meat" and excess capacity.
In order to get orders, some companies have issued very low quotations to reduce the market price by about 20%."Compared with the foreign trade, our orders are not too small, but when the operating costs such as rent, hydropower, and employees have increased, and the price of order prices decreases, the profit space is further compressed."
Due to the severe market environment, some Dongguan factories can only accept the fate of graduation.According to media reports, the 32 -year -old veteran Hardware Factory Hubang Hardware Plastic Products Company announced in late October this year because of "serious losses and difficult steps" and announced their graduation.
In addition to processing and manufacturing, Dongguan consumer goods manufacturing industries such as furniture and clothing have also frequently reported news this year.When we visited two factories circulating on the Internet, our furniture factories have been seized by the court; the original site of another clothing factory has settled in.
The decline in the income of Dongguan enterprises has seriously dragged down the local economic growth.Official data shows,In the first half of this year, the GDP of Dongguan was 526.2 billion yuan, an increase of 1.5%year -on -year, far lower than the average level of 5.5%nationwide.In the third quarter, Dongguan has not yet stepped out of the shadow of economic slowdown. GDP growth only recorded 2%, ranking "Baowei" in Guangdong Province.
Dongguan has proposed to achieve a 6%GDP growth earlier this year.From the current point of view, it is almost impossible to achieve this goal.
Song Ding, a researcher at China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, pointed out in the interview that when the European and American economies fell into a recession in 2009 and 2012, the Dongguan economy had also been sluggish in the first half of the year, but the results were pulling numbers twice in the second half of the year.Come up.
But due to the great changes in the international economic and trade pattern and the social and economic environment of Dongguan in recent years, Song Ding believes that if Dongguan wants to make up for the shortcomings of the first half of the year through efforts in the second half of this year, it is very difficult.
Excessive dependence on foreign trade
The main problem is that Dongguan is too single, the industrial structure centered on traditional manufacturing, and excessive dependence on foreign trade.
Song Ding said that this economic model has continued to grow steadily when the international situation in the past is favorable, but in the event of a sharp fluctuation in the international market this year, Dongguan is difficult to resist, so that the economy has stagnated a large extent.
As an important global processing and manufacturing base, Dongguan's foreign trade dependence is higher than ordinary cities, reaching 434%in 1995, that is, the total import and export value is more than four times that of GDP.To put it simply, every one dollar produced in Dongguan is imported and exported to four raw materials and products, which fully shows the tightness of its economic and international economic connection.As Dongguan continued to promote the transformation of the industrial structure in the past 15 years, this number has fallen to 128%in 2022, but Dongguan is still one of the top three cities in China, ranking among the top three.
Peng Peng, the executive chairman of the Guangdong Provincial System Reform Research Association, believes that in the context of the current wave of trade protectionism and the rise of the "decourse" thoughts, Dongguan still has not dropped enough.Judging from the current data, Dongguan has not been out of the predicament, and the official still needs to re -build the development pattern to solve the problem of insufficient endurance of the economy.
He said: "Dongguan needs to strengthen the thinking and layout of 'dual -cycle' '' of‘ double cycle ’, shifting from overseas markets to domestic markets, especially the Guangdong -Hong Kong -Macao Greater Bay Area market.”
Official statistics show that in 2022, the total export value of Dongguan was 924.013 billion yuan, and North America and European countries accounted for 39%of them, reaching 366.733 billion yuan.Emerging markets like Latin America account for nearly 5%of exports to 46.039 billion yuan.
Peng Peng also believes that Dongguan must expand emerging markets, such as Africa, the Middle East, South America, etc., and try to restore the traditional European and American markets. Industry transfer: from Dongguan to Southeast Asia
In 2018, the United States launched a trade war with China to impose tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of imported goods in China.As a result, American companies have avoided buying products made in China, which led to many Dongguan companies facing the risk of breaking cooking.In order to bypad tariffs, many manufacturers have moved some production capacity to Southeast Asian countries, which is even worse for Dongguan economy, which is weak.
Zhang Weilun, a high -quality hardware mold manufacturer, said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that many potential American customers are now incapacitating because of their factory in China, and they will be unhappy because of high tariff costs."Our American customers have been reduced from 10 to three. In the past two years, they have not recruited any new American customers. Many customers who have cooperated before are not willing to renew their contracts."
China has canceled the implementation of epidemic control for nearly three years in January this year, allowing foreign passengers to enter the country.Zhang Weilun pointed out that many companies thought that the restoration of the personnel could promote the business. "I never expected that the result was not that investors came in, but more factories went out."
As the strategic competition between China and the United States has intensified, the economy of the two sides has also begun to show decoupling.In order to prevent the risk of broken supply chains and reduce tariff costs, many multinational companies are accelerating the implementation of the "China Plus One" strategy, transferring some investment in China to other countries, and requiring downstream manufacturers to do so.
Zhang Weilun said: "Dongguan frequently reported the news of the withdrawal of the company this year. There are four or five factories I know. In particular, some companies that undertake (American technology giants) Apple companies are busy this year.Evacted " Yingfei Electronics has begun to discuss with partners in Malaysia and Vietnam this year to make manufacturing and production locally.Wang Yingying, executive director of the company, said that the US market accounts for most of the company's business. In order to survive, they have to cooperate with customers' strategic deployment.
For some Dongguan companies, Southeast Asian countries are more like a transit station that undertake foreign orders and exports products to Europe and the United States.
At present, Gong Fuzhou, a Dongguan hardware mold manufacturer who is ready to transfer part of the production capacity, said that although Vietnam's industrial facilities are relatively complete, some local advanced mold processing equipment is still backward, and the precision is not high.Essence
He said: "We hope to bring some precision equipment over and send Chinese engineers to train local employees. But this takes time, it may take three or five years."
Gong Fuzhou said that the company will still leave most of the production capacity in Dongguan in the short term, because products with high technology content are still unable to produce in Vietnam, but the company will export finished products to Europe and the United States through VietnamEssence
Over the past few years, the bilateral trade between China and Asia has continued to grow strongly. The two sides have been the largest trading partner for three consecutive years in 2022.
Tao Ran, a professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen) (Shenzhen) School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Director of the Department of Development and Management and Teaching and Research, in an interview, in an interview, it was impossible for Southeast Asian countries to completely digest China's huge export.It is accelerating the transfer of Southeast Asia.
He said: "At present, the manufacturing industry in Dongguan only transfers part of the capacity, but if the trade conflict continues to deteriorate, or the policy, industrial supply chain and infrastructure of ASEAN (that is, the Asian Gyeenity) countries will become more complete, it will not rule out that the enterprise will take the enterprise will take the enterprise will take the company that will take the enterprise.More manufacturing capacity has been moved to make Chinese manufacturing and economical.
Experts interviewed believe that the continuous upgrading and transformation of the industry is a must -have in Dongguan, but it also proposes that the Dongguan's transformation process cannot be "switched to birds", and traditional and emerging industries must go hand in hand.
In the past ten years, Dongguan has been working hard to promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional manufacturing, including building a robotic industry gathering area in Songshan Lake High -tech Industrial Development Zone, and promoting the high -quality development of the digital economy.
At the same time, the towns and streets in Dongguan are also vigorously introducing high -tech enterprises, including undertaking enterprises spilling from Shenzhen and China.However, some analysts point out that Dongguan is still backward in terms of industry -university -research integration, the number of enterprises that can attract is limited, and the market's demand for this area is not strong enough.
Song Ding, a researcher at the Institute of Comprehensive Development of China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, pointed out that in the process of industrial upgrading, Dongguan mustAvoid the "steaming birds" type of operation with excessive strength. Before the substantial import of high -end industries, a large number of traditional low -end industries will be eliminated, because "the position of the cage is free, and the birds may not come."
Song Ding believes that in Dongguan, instead of squeezing the traditional manufacturing industry early, it is better to find a moderate solution. Through a series of reforms, it enhances the scientific and technological content of traditional industries and go hand in hand with high -tech industries.
He said that Dongguan should not worry about the existence of traditional manufacturing, because this is exactly the advantage of Dongguan. These basic consumer products produced in Dongguan are also needed by the world, but it should continue to improve its scientific and technological content and level.
Song Ding also believes that Dongguan must adjust its economic structure and strengthen the development of the service industry, especially for modern service industries for high -end manufacturing, such as information transmission, software and technology, scientific research, and modern logistics services.
Official data shows that the three industrial structures in Dongguan in 2022 were 0.3: 58.2: 41.5, and the proportion of the second industry is still much higher than the tertiary industry.
Song Ding pointed out that the modern service industry can promote the development of high -end manufacturing, and cities like Dongguan as the core of Dongguan cannot push their net worth into the service industry in other cities.
He believes that Dongguan once again stands on the crossroads of industrial structure adjustment, and must make great efforts to reform.But he did not deny: "This difficulty is still quite large, after all, the foundation foundation of Dongguan other than manufacturing is relatively weak."
To promote industrial upgrading and structural transformation, Dongguan must also lay a talent foundation for future high -quality development.Tao Ran, a professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen) and Director of the Department of Development and Governance of the Department of Development and Governance, believes that Dongguan must create better living conditions for the foreign population and solve the problems such as housing and education through the reform of the land system.
Dongguan is one of the cities with the highest population in China, and the non -household registration population accounts for 76%of the permanent population.With the decline in labor demand for the Dongguan factory, some migrant workers from other provinces have also returned to their hometown.Official data show that Dongguan's resident population in 2022 decreased by nearly 100,000 compared with the previous year.
Tao Ran said: "Whether Dongguan can continue to attack the city in the international market depends on the changes in international relations. This is not controlled by Dongguan, or even China unilaterally. Our efforts cannot be alone in the industry,Also pay attention to the long -term development of people "
