Yang Danxu: What wake up Wagners soldiers to China?

The dramatic Wagner Group's mutiny has just been the hottest topic of the Chinese public opinion field in the past weekend.

After the news came out, it was difficult for Chinese netizens in Ukraine to hide their excitement. They waited to watch Russia's "inner puppets", and compared the Wagner Group's head of Pryigo as the Russian version of "Anlu Mountain";Worried that Russia was in a civil war and triggered a major turning point in the Russian and Ukraine situation, allowing the United States to free up to deal with China.

However, compared with the hot discussion on the public opinion field, the official attitude adopted by Chinese officials is much colder, and it does not make any comments in the first time after the mutiny.It was not until the period of the mutiny crisis for most of the day that the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs explained the Chinese position on Sunday (June 25) in the evening of Sunday (June 25) in the low -key form of reporters.

Although the response of less than 50 words has supported Russia's maintenance of the country's stability, it is not clear that Russian President Putin is clear.

China is one of Russia's most important partners. China and Russia are considered a quasi -ally relationship. After the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, Beijing and Moscow have maintained close relationships and even have been criticized.After Putin faced the crisis, Beijing's silence once triggered the outside world speculation, so that some international political observers believe that this is a loud and clear signal of Moscow, that is, Beijing is dissatisfied with Moscow.

Why are China so cautious this time?

In fact, the Wagner Group, which has repeatedly built warfare on the battlefield of Russia, suddenly changed. The news was like a thunder in a flat way, which shocked too many people.One possibility is that things come too suddenly, and it is not advisable to easily express it as soon as possible.

US media quoted sources as saying that American intelligence agencies have mastered the may rebellion of the Wagner Group's rebellion recently, but it is not clear about its ultimate purpose.When the situation is confusing and does not have the specific situation, it is difficult to judge that in the end, it is best to let the bullet fly for a while and take a wait -and -see attitude.At this point, China did not lose money. Before the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War in February last year, the misjudgment of Russia's invasion of Ukraine made China embarrassed.In addition, the cautious statement on the issue of Wagner's mutiny is also in line with Beijing's consistent position that does not interfere with other domestic politics.

After the soldiers occurred, Putin talked with leaders of many countries to introduce the domestic situation, including the final assistance of Moscow to resolve the crisis President Lukashenko, as well as the presidents of Turkey, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and other countries.

After the recovery of Russia, Russia also sent Vice Foreign Minister Ruden Ke to Beijing to meet with Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang, and Ma Zhaoxu, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs;

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs posted a message after the meeting with Qin Gang, "China supports Russian leaders' efforts to stabilize the domestic situation on the June 24th incident on the June 24th."To the two parties on "exchange opinions on international and regional issues that Sino -Russian relations and common concern".

Whether it is the official Chinese official as soon as possible or after the meeting of Sino -Russian senior diplomats, Beijing Xi's statement and the content of the talks are particularly careful, which shows that Beijing does not want the outside world to think thatWill support Putin unconditionally.

In the end, Wagner's soldiers turned into great reversal in just 24 hours, avoiding a large -scale and even risk of the Russian civil war. Beijing may be relieved.However, the change of a wharze still sounded the alarm.

Is the Wagner soldiers just the tip of the iceberg of the Russian Rule of Rule of Interest Group?How can the internal division affect the situation of the front line?After the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, although China made a neutral statement, it never condemned Russia.Once the situation of the Russian and Ukraine war turns, will China continue to bind to Russia, which is evolved and forth, and should it be more active in reconciliation?

Wagner's mutiny also allows the outside world to focus on Russia's internal political situation again, and questioned whether the Russian politician who has the image of "Iron Man" has the image of Russian politicians who still control the country as always.The soldiers made a lot of questions on the stage: The most direct cause of this crisis was the contradiction between the leader of the Wagner Group Poligon and the Russian Ministry of Defense. Why did Putin allow such contradictions to ferment for several months and eventually evolved into soldiers?The tough Putin never refunded when facing such incidents. Although it would be severely punished this time, in the end, he had to compromise with the rebels.Criminal filed for him to exile in Bailos.Will other political oligarchs be scholarship?After this battle, how much is Putin's political prestige?

A mutiny makes these problems difficult to avoid, especially for Beijing, which has been dealing with Putin for a long time.The special relationship between China and Russia in recent years, including the Russia and Ukraine War, has continued to deal with Moscow after the Russian and Ukraine War. In a sense, it is inseparable from the special relationship between Beijing and Putin.Relying on the personal friendship of leaders, it is not ideal to maintain the communication between the country and the country. When dealing with a opaque country such as Russia, it is even more unknown to betraying a person.The complicated Beijing is also believed to be clear, otherwise it will not be taken away as much as possible after the change.

The political situation inside Russia is like a black box to the outside world. The rushing toasting mutiny let everyone clearly see the tension in this black box. Political analysis people from various countries may have imagined the possibility of the "Hou Putin era".