Chinas third quarter economic growth is 3.9 % better than market forecasts for a

The Chinese economy rebounded from the trough in the first half of the year, and the economy increased by 3.9 % year -on -year in the third quarter, which was higher than market expectations.The analysis is expected to continue the rise of the economy in the fourth quarter, but due to the slow consumption recovery and the continuous weakness of the property market, it is expected that the annual growth rate is expected to exceed 4 %.

During the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Chinese official last Tuesday (October 18) rarely postponed the release of a series of economic indicators such as the third quarter of domestic product (GDP), which caused the market to worry about the third quarter economic performanceNot good.However, the data released on Monday (October 24) showed that the year -on -year growth rate of GDP growth in the third quarter was a significant rebound from 0.4 % in the second quarter, which also driven the GDP growth rate from 2.5 % to 3 % in the first half of the year.

The high -expected economic data briefly boosted market sentiment, but was soon dispersed by pessimistic expectations.After the first trading day of the Twenty CPC, the Lugang Index was severely frustrated.The CSI 300 Index closed down 2.93 % throughout the day, slipping to the low point in the past four years; the Hang Seng Index was even more fell 6.36 %, the largest decline since 2008.

China's manufacturing industry has maintained a strong growth momentum. In the third quarter, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.8 % year -on -year, 4.1 percentage points accelerated by 4.1 peripherals in the second quarter.In September, industrial added value increased by 6.3 % year -on -year, higher than 4.2 % in August, and exceeded 4.8 % of market forecasts.

With the end of the economic center in Shanghai, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the third quarter also stopped falling, up 3.5 % year -on -year.However, the year -on -year increase in social zero has slowed from 5.4 % in August to 2.5 % in September, highlighting the weakness of domestic demand recovery.The unemployment rate of urban investigation also rebounded again after four months, from 5.3 % in August to 5.5 % in September.

The continuous decline of the commodity residential index shows that the rescue measures have not worked

On the other hand, the 70 -city new commodity residential index announced on the same day has fallen for 13 consecutive months, showing that a series of recent market rescue measures have not worked.

Yan Yuejin, the research director of the Think Tank Center of the Easy House Research Institute, observed that the 70 -city housing price indicator has continued to expand since April this year."Winter" will continue.

Xie Dongming, director of the Research Director of the Greater China of Singapore Overseas Chinese Bank, told Lianhe Zaobao that under the premise that the "clear zero" epidemic prevention measures did not obviously relax, the Chinese economic recovery rate in the third quarter exceeded expectations."The impact of the same scale epidemic on the economy may gradually become smaller. However, weak consumption and property market are still the main risks facing the economy throughout the year."

In addition, this year's trade that has played an important role in China's economy will also be impacted by the environment.According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China ’s exports increased by 5.7 % year -on -year to 7.1 % in August.Last month, exports to the United States fell 11.6 % year -on -year, and the decline fell further from 3.8 % in August.Although the export of Southeast Asia has maintained a strong growth, Xie Dongming believes that the continuous slowdown in global demand will also affect the Southeast Asian market and increase China's export risk.

Two weeks ago, the International Monetary Fund will further reduce China's economic growth from 3.3 % to 3.2 % this year, far lower than the 5.5 % growth target set by China's official year at the beginning of the year.Chinese official last Sunday (October 23) led the new Politburo Standing Committee member to meet with the media that the fundamentals of China's economy "strong toughness, sufficient potential, and virus room for a long time, and long -term improvement" will not change.

Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, predicts that the global economic slowdown in the fourth quarter will curb economic momentum, but the role of official stable economic policy will continue to be played, and economic growth is expected to rise to about 4.0 %.3.5 %.

Xie Dongming also estimates that the economic growth rate of the fourth quarter is between 4 % and 5 %. If the annual economic growth rate can rise to more than 3.5 %, "even a good answer sheet."