China's GDP in the third quarter (GDP) increased by 3.9%year -on -year, a sharp rebound of 3.5 percentage points from the second quarter.Expert analysis is that China's GDP in the fourth quarter is expected to continue to rise.
The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Monday (October 24) shows that China ’s GDP was 87026.9 billion yuan (RMB, the same below, S $ 17040 billion) in the first three quarters of 2022, an increase of 3%year -on -year.In terms of quarterly, the GDP in the first quarter increased by 4.8%year -on -year, 0.4%in the second quarter, and 3.9%in the third quarter.From a month -on -month perspective, the GDP in the third quarter increased by 3.9%.
The Bureau of Statistics said that since this year, in the face of complicated and severe domestic and foreign situations and multiple super -expected factors, all regions and departments have adhered to the general toneThe requirements for stabilizing and development, efficiently coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and the development of economic and social development, accelerate the implementation of a policy of stabilizing the economy and continuation policy measures, the national economy has continued to recover pressure, and the economic recovery in the third quarter is obviously better than the second quarter than in the second quarter.The production demand continues to improve, the employment price is generally stable, the people's livelihood protection is strong and effective, and the overall operation is in a reasonable range.
In the first three quarters, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 4214.12 billion yuan, an increase of 5.9%year -on -year; the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 32030.5 billion yuan, an increase of 0.7%year -on -year, and the first half of the year was 0.7%.The value added of industries above the country increased by 3.9%year -on -year, 0.5 percentage points accelerated from the first half of the year.
According to the surging news report, Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, said that in the third quarter, factors such as repeated economic epidemic, high temperature electricity limit, and real estate downturn, and the economic operation was in a reasonable interval.However, with the continuous efforts of a policy and continuation policy of the stable economy, domestic demand has promoted economic maintenance to resume a good trend.
In September, the total retail sales of Chinese social consumer goods increased by 2.5%year -on -year, and the growth rate fell 2.9 percentage points from August.Among them, retail sales increased by 3%, and the growth rate fell 2.1 percentage points from August; catering revenue decreased by 1.7%, an increase of 8.4%in August.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of Everbright Bank, said that the current problem facing Chinese consumption is the influence of the scattered epidemic, the market is expected to be weak, and the real estate is in the recovery stage;The main reason that the effect of steady growth in China has gradually emerged, helping to promote employment and income improvement. At the same time, domestic real estate stabilizes and recovers, which is expected to drive domestic consumer momentum to enhance.
Looking forward to the economic trend in the fourth quarter, Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, said that it is expected that the macro economy in the fourth quarter is expected to continue to rise.The normal growth level is also helpful for further consolidating the foundation of employment.In the fourth quarter, consumption will be further repaired and gradually returns to the initiative of stimulating economic growth. Infrastructure investment will maintain a high increase in double digits, and the effect of real estate investment dragging on ease.
Wen Bin said that in the first three quarters of this year, China's domestic economic toughness mainly relied on the three major momentum: export, infrastructure and manufacturing investment, and fluctuations mainly came from epidemic and real estate.Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the slowdown in the global economic slowdown will curb economic momentum, but the role of stable economic policy will continue to be played. The economic growth will improve compared with the third quarter. It is expected to increase by about 4.0%year -on -year and increase by about 3.5%throughout the year.
He said: "Because the preventive savings rate of the residential department is still at a high level, and the willingness to increase leverage is insufficient, the confidence of the corporate department also needs to be rectified. Therefore, it is expected that the economic operation in the fourth quarter will be slightly better than in the third quarter, butBack to 5.0%-5.5%of the potential growth level is more difficult. "
