(New York News) Analysts predict that people hope that China's epidemic prevention policy will be in the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China The expectations that will come to an end may fall, and Beijing may have to adjust the policy later.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Liu Qindong, chief executive officer of Jirong Investment, said that the expectations of the rapid transformation of China's epidemic prevention policy after the 20th Conference of the Communist Party of China may be too high.Although the twenty may eliminate some political uncertainty, it is not possible to predict what the policy direction is, and can only observe its changes.As long as China continues to resist restrictions on epidemic, the confidence of enterprises and consumers may not be able to improve substantially.
Liu Jinjin, chief Chinese stock strategist of Goldman Sachs Macro Research Department, said that Goldman Sachs predicts that China's strict epidemic prevention measures will last until the end of the second quarter of 2023.This is mainly due to the busy political schedule in the next six months, and the vaccination rate of the elderly population in China is still low.
Beijing has released signals to accept this year's economic moderate growth rate
Qian Tao, CEO and CEO of Wuji Capital Management Co., Ltd., predicts that the relaxation of the epidemic prevention policy may be at the end of the first quarter of next year.The Chinese government has released signals to the public more than once, that is, the official accepting the moderate economic growth rate this year means that China is unlikely to significantly change policies such as epidemic prevention before the end of the year.
Alexandre Tavazzi, the chief investment officer's office and macro research director of Patek Management, said that the hope of China's policy adjustment has been shattered before. Chinese officials have issued signals that support the financial market and economy many times this year.The government has also launched stimulating measures, but its strength is not as good as expected.
Tavani said: "People have been disappointed once, everyone is paying attention to October 16th, and want to see if there will be specific measures to introduce."
The Chinese government has adopted measures to seal the city, large -scale testing and closing the border for many years in order to prevent epidemic prevention. Enterprises have slowed their investment pace, and consumers have also cut expenses.The growth rate of GDP in China in the second quarter was slower than expected, and the stock market fell many times.The CSI 300 Index and the Shanghai Composite Index have fallen to a few months, and the MSCI Mingsheng China Index has touched the six -year low.
