Twenty Specials
step into the golden autumn October, the CCP's top leadership team is about to change, and the Chinese economy is still top. The economic situation of being pinched by internal and external affairs is a severe challenge for the new leadership team to face. What changes have happened in the Chinese economy in the past 20 years before the 20th National Congress? What new situation will we usher in the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China?
Chinese officials move towards the third term, the world's second largest economy he led is facing the most severe economic situation in 10 years.
Slower export growth, weak domestic demand recovery, and the property market have not merged ... Under multiple pressures, only one quarter left to the Chinese economy this year, and analysts are still down to reduce the expectations of the year's growth.About 5.5 % of the growth target set by the official year at the beginning of the year is out of reach. More than one institution predicts that China's economic growth may be only 3 % throughout the year.
In contrast, when China officially took over in 2012, the market was hotly discussed that the GDP (GDP) that year may fall below 8 %, which is the minimum increase in the previous 13 years.
China's GDP growth rate has slowed significantly within the official appointment of China, which is not only because the Chinese economy is entering the deceleration period, but also related to the economic adjustment adopted by high -level high -levels in the past 10 years.In the past 10 years, the degree of political intervention in politics has been obvious, from "housing does not speculate" to "common prosperity"; from anti -capital disorder expansion to insisting on the "clear zero" of the epidemic, a number of policies will have a significant impact. China will have China.The economy was pushed to fork.
Earlier, during the 10 years of the former Hu Jintao's main administration, the Chinese economy was in the take -off stage, and the world ranking jumped from the sixth to the second, but contradictions such as the expansion of the rich and the poor and the solidification of social class are also increasingly acute.The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2017 proposed that the main contradictions in Chinese society have been transformed into a contradiction between "the people's growing good life needs" and "unbalanced and inadequate development".This is the judgment of the "main contradiction" after 36 years after 1981, which marks the focus of economic policy from "making cakes" to both development and fairness.
While 2021, while the CCP celebrated the 100th anniversary of the founding of the party, it was announced that it was eliminated by absolute poverty across the country and promoted "common prosperity" and also put on the agenda.The official strikes several "barbaric growth" industries.From the monopoly of anti -technology enterprises, "cracking down on capital disorder expansion", to the "destruction" off -campus training industry, and then to the entertainment industry and the online game industry ... the high -speed growth of multiple industries has stopped abruptly, and the private economy is just a few times.During the year, he was injured.
In addition to the extensive crackdown, the crackdown method has unexpectedly expected the market.Taking the Financial Technology Giant Ant Group as an example, the Ant Group's listing process was urgently suspended before listing. The market was stunned.
Bai Shizhen, a visiting professor at the National University of Singapore and the former dean of the Singapore Financial Administration College, pointed out in a joint morning newspaper that although countries have vigorously implemented antitrust in recent years, the Chinese and Western practices are very different.The Chinese Communist Party will directly intervene in the operation of private enterprises. "
Bai Shizhen further analyzed that the fundamental difference between the Chinese market economy and the West is that the CCP is the political basis of economic operation. This trait is particularly obvious during the Chinese official administration, "the CCP is almost omnipotent."
The General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China issued opinions on strengthening the work of the private economy united in the new era in September 2020. It mentioned that the private economy persons are more closely unite around the CCP and let them "always be politically understand people"The private economy representatives who meet the conditions of party members "absorb time to the party in time."
The trend of "National Entrustering and People" is more obvious or has a bombardment in the party
However, the tide of the private economy after the opinion was released, which made entrepreneurs who were cold for a while.Ma Yun, who used to do high -profile, has been "stealth" after the Ant listing is frustrated. The founder of Pinduoduo has stepped down as the CEO and Chairman of the Group in one year.His wife Zhang Xin also stepped down as chairman and CEO of the Chinese board of directors of SOHO in September this year.
These high -profile private corporate bosses retreat and are regarded as the vane of changes in the atmosphere of the Chinese market.Chen Guangyan, a professor of economics at Nanyang Institute of Technology, pointed out in an interview that the trend of the Chinese economy's "retreat from the country" was even more obvious during the Chinese official administration. The side effects brought by this may have caused a rebound within the party.
The property market and the epidemic exacerbate the economy
Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang made a speech when he inspected Shenzhen in August this year, "China will continue to advance, and the Yellow River Yangtze River will not flow backwards."Chen Guangyan interpreted that Li Keqiang made this statement at the end of the "Beidaihe Conference" of the Communist Party of China. "It is likely that at the Beidaihe Conference, the party's reflection (to the private economy) should be eased."
Chen Guangyan, a professor of economics at Nanyang Institute of Technology, pointed out that there are many disadvantages of technology, teaching and training and other industries after many years of development, and it is time to regulate it.However, if the control is excessive and the confidence in the private economic confidence will not only weaken the long -term competitive advantage, but also have a negative impact on the employment situation and the consumption of the public."Private enterprises are the main driving driving driving driving driving of the Chinese economy. If employment opportunities are reduced and the people's living standards are stagnant, the CCP's ruling legitimacy will weaken."
Private enterprises have not yet stepped out of the shadow of rectification, and the sudden cold property market and the epidemic control of this one -time epidemic have worsened the Chinese economy.After the first time in 2016, it was proposed that "housing does not speculate", the Chinese government successively hit the real estate speculation.In this year, many major cities such as Shanghai and Beijing have successively sealed the city due to the demand for the "clear zero" of the epidemic, and further defeated the property market to buy the market.
Lu Xi, assistant professor of the School of Public Policy of the National University of Singapore, analyzed in the interview that most Chinese economic policies in the past 10 years have accelerated the commonality of the centralization of centralization, which has intensified the CCP's centralized trend and the rigidity of the Chinese political system in the same period.related.
Lu Xi said: "China's public administrative governance is still quite primitive and obscure. When formulating policies, it has not undergone extensive discussions and lacks advance tests and scientific assessments.The effect is often running counter to the expected target, which not only damages the domestic economy, but also shakes the confidence of foreign investors. "
The National Committee of the United States and China Trade, the Chinese EU Chamber of Commerce and the Swedish Chamber of Commerce in the past two months have shown that the strict epidemic prevention and control has become the biggest challenge facing foreign companies in China. Many European and American companiesConsider the suspension or cancellation of investment plans in China, and put your sights on other areas of AsiaEssence
Lu Xi pessimistic prediction, even if the Communist Party of China relaxes epidemic prevention management after the 20th National Congress, it is difficult to reverse the damage caused by before.He said that in the past three years, many manufacturers have shifted the factory to Southeast Asia and other places, and the foundation of the manufacturing industry has been loosened.Information blockade to maintain the clearing policy has also made China a major difference in ideology with the world, which is difficult to change in a short period of time.
Bai Shizhen, a guest professor at the National University of Singapore, believes that although China has a tendency to have a tendency in the past few years, in public reports, the decision -making level still clearly shows the determination to adhere to opening up."If the previous cracking down on the private economy is to prevent the capital expansion from challenging the central power too quickly, then when Chinese officials have obtained five years of governing power and eliminating their worries, the economy may gradually return to the market."
Politics or economy who leads to the 20th after the 20th, see the division
He judged that after half a year to one year from the 20th to one year, he could judge whether China will continue to make politics over the economy or release signals to the market.Bai Shizhen is looking forward to the next five years. The decision -making level can clearly divide the boundaries between the government and the market.
The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China "played the basic decisive role of the market in the resource allocation" was written into the party constitution, but how to coordinate the decisive role of the market with the "party leadership"?This is a major issue in China during the epidemic period, because it not only needs to boost the economy, but also to release the potential of growth to the greatest extent, so as to achieve a significant leap in comprehensive national strength in 2035, to achieve the goal of basically socialist modernization.
Chen Guangyan described that the current Chinese economy is like a long -distance runner who has fallen.Some people think that he broke his bones and can only run his feet in the future; others think that this is just muscle spasm, and you can recover the speed."China's fall this time is because it is because of combating the private economy and promoting the clearing of zero -zero policies. If you relax the control as soon as possible, it is expected to restore market confidence; if you continue the current policy, it may really take the economy to lame in the long run, and it will even be paralyzed in severe cases."
Internal risk continues to be upgraded, external crosses
Internal risk continues to upgrade, the external challenges faced by China's economy are even more severe, and the first is the surround of the United States.
Over the past five years, China and the United States have successively broke out of trade and scientific and technological warfare, and the relationship between the two countries has become more and more open -minded.Compared with the trade war that has reached the first phase of the agreement, the US sanctions on China in the field of science and technology have a more far -reaching impact on the Chinese economy.
Since the US Department of Commerce in 2019 has set an export control ban on Huawei and other Chinese companies, the United States has repeatedly increased sanctions on Chinese technology companies.The U.S. Congress used the chip bill of the domestic semiconductor industry in July this year and tightened the restrictions on China's acquisition of chip manufacturing equipment.US President Biden signed an administrative order two weeks ago to strengthen the review of China's investment in the United States.In the past Friday (October 7), Washington announced another new export control measures to limit China's high -end chip with military use of military purposes, including some chips used for supercomputes, and further tightenedRegulations for selling semiconductor manufacturing equipment to any Chinese company.
The consequences ofA series of sanctions are the latest mobile phones launched by Chinese mobile phone giants this year, and they still cannot equip 5G chips.The chip industry leader SMIC is also blocked by the supply chain, and it is difficult to achieve high -performance chip technology research.
In fact, the Chinese government proposed the "Made in China 2025" as early as 2015, setting up specific requirements such as 70 % core basic parts and components and key basic materials to achieve autonomous guarantee to reduce foreign supply to foreign countries.Dependence.But in the past seven years, China has not yet achieved major breakthroughs in the semiconductor industry and has been out of the predicament of being restrained by the United States.
Chen Guangyan, a professor of economics at Nanyang Institute of Technology, was judged during the interview with Lianhe Morning Post. Semiconductor technology will be the main driving force for the next round of productivity revolution. Therefore, the scientific and technological war will become the key to the future China -US competition.One of the most important challenges.
Chen Guangyan's analysis, from the current situation, production equipment relied on Chinese chip manufacturers mainly comes from the United States and its allies, and the chip design industry is also led by American companies."However, China's huge chip consumer market has given it a certain bargaining ability; promoting the development of key industries with the strength of the country, and also helps to quickly improve the technical level and innovation capabilities in this field."
Over the past 10 years, the Chinese Communist Party's decision -making layer has repeatedly proposed to promote the development of scientific and technological through the "new national system". After the American chip bill took effect in August this year, Chinese officials re -set the "new national system" in September, emphasizing that they must play "concentrated on concentrationThe advantage of strength to do great events, greatly enhance the systemic ability of science and technology research.
In addition to facing the problem of "card neck" in the field of science and technology, the international environment and increasingly complex geopolitical situation against the globalization have also made China increasingly aware of the need for self -reliance.In May 2020, the Chinese Communist Party's decision -making level proposed a new development pattern of "the domestic large -cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles promoted".One year later, the "unified market" action program promulgated is deemed to be specific policies to build internal circulation. By releasing the domestic market potential, the economic risks brought about by increasing external uncertainty.
The seemingly ideal in the "unified market" loop in the "unified market" is high, but the risk is high
Lu Xi, an assistant professor of the School of Public Policy of the National University of Singapore, said that in an interview, it was a seemingly ideal, but it was a seemingly ideal, but there were great risk decisions during the implementation of the "unified market".In addition to solving a series of problems such as structural unemployment and industrial policy failure caused by local economic structures, the central government must also set more departments to coordinate the distribution of interests in various places and increase uncertainties in economic and political levels.
"Internal Cycle" can work if it works, but it has brought another risk to the Chinese economy -although the official repeatedly clarified that "internal circulation" is not equal to the retreat of locking the country, it also actively promotes the regional comprehensive economic partnership Agreement (RCEP)To apply for the addition of the comprehensive progress agreement (CPTPP) of the cross -Pacific partnership, many overseas investors are still worried that China ’s focus is on expanding domestic demand, which is a sign of decoupling with the outside world.And the tendency to withdraw capital.
Prior to this year, economists from various countries generally expect that China's GDP will surpass the United States in 2030 and become the world's largest economy.However, with the weakening of China's growth momentum, the British Think Tank Economic and Commercial Research Center recently delayed its time beyond the United States from 2028 to 2030, and the prediction of the Japan Economic Research Center was delayed from 2029 to 2033.
Former US Treasury Secretary Smes more directly questioned the possibility of China's economy beyond the United States.He said that China's population is increasingly aging, and the government is increasingly inclined to intervene in corporate affairs, which has greatly reduced his expectations for China's economic growth.He believes that the prediction of China's rise is similar to the predictions about Japan or Russia before, "it seems ridiculous today."
Chen Guangyan believes that the competition between China and the United States is like a dragon boat race."The United States brings together outstanding talents and entrepreneurs around the world, and all muscles are developed, but the conflict between them may offset some results. On the dragon boat in China, each crew may not necessarily be the strongest, but they are the strongest, but they are the strongest, but they are the strongest, but they arePractice in one direction together. China's strong national consciousness exerts important cohesion, and the unified government management of the government has become China's most important competitive advantage. "
