China's economic indicators have reappeared significantly before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Affected by the rebound and epidemic prevention measures in many places, September Caixin China General Service Industry Business Activity Index (Service Industry PMI)For the first time, it has fallen below the Rongku Line.
Scholars of interviewed scholars analyzed that the number of service industry in October may further weaken.
September (October 8th), the PMI data released by September Caixin Service Industry, broke the expansion trend in the past three months, decreased by 5.7 points from August and recorded 49.3.The critical point of PMI higher than 50 shows the expansion of the industry activities, and below 50 shows that industry activities have shrunk.
The PMI of the Chinese manufacturing industry in September 30, announced on September 30, also fell to a low of five months, down 1.4 points to 48.1, which was the same as May.The PMI of the two major industries fell, dragging down the Fortune New China Comprehensive PMI fell 4.5 points to 48.5, the first time since June to the contraction range.
The decline of PMI in the financial service industry in September is consistent with official data, but the official figures are still above the critical point.According to the data jointly released by the National Bureau of Statistics and the Logistics and Procurement Federation, the non -manufacturing business activity index in September was 50.6, a decrease of 2 points from last month, and decreased for the third consecutive month, but it remained recovery for four consecutive months for four consecutive monthsexpansion.
The supply and demand of the service industry declined at the same time, dragging down employment to accelerate shrinkage, and the service industry employment index continued to be in the contraction range in September, down to the lowest point since June.The optimism of the service industry has also weakened. In September, the operating expectations index also dropped to a low point in nearly six months, but it is still higher than the critical point.
Wang Jun, director of the China Chief Economist Forum, analyzed in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that China entered the political cycle in October. In late September, especially before China National Day, it tightened prevention and control measures.The overall service industry's operating environment was greatly suppressed, and the decline of the service industry PMI was unexpected.
Tourism revenue during the National Day holiday decreased by 26.2%year -on -year
Wang Yan, a senior economist of Caixin Think Tank, pointed out to Caixin.com that the negative impact of epidemic control measures on the economy is still more significant; the main contradiction of the current economic operation is insufficient employment, poor demand, and unstable expectations.It should be concentrated in promoting employment, issuing subsidies, and boosting demand, and cultivating market subject confidence through passing policy signals.
The atmosphere of the downturn in the service industry was dragged into the Golden Week in October. The China Network quoted the data newspaper of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism on October 8. During the National Day holiday from October 1st to 7th, 422 million people across China National Tourism TravelThe year -on -year decrease was 18.2%, which was 60.7%in the same period in 2019; domestic tourism revenue was 287.21 billion yuan (about 57.834 billion yuan), a year -on -year decrease of 26.2%, and only 44.2%in the same period of 2019.
China's economic growth has slowed significantly this year. The economic growth rate in the first half of the year was 2.5 %, which was far lower than the official economic growth goals of about 5.5 % set up earlier this year.Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council of the State Council evaluated the economic overall stabilization in the third quarter when he hosted the "Fourth -quarter Work Promotion Meeting of the Economic Overall" on September 28, and stated that the economy in the fourth quarter was the heaviest.
Wang Jun judged that from the past week's situation, the economic situation in October was not very optimistic, but some policy adjustments will occur after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which may usher in some retaliatory consumption and promote economic improvement.
China's economic growth in the first three quarters will be announced on October 18. Wang Jun believes that economic growth in the third quarter may reach 3%to 3.5%, and the fourth quarter may be around 3.5%.
The PMI of the Chinese manufacturing industry in September 30, announced on September 30, also fell to a low of five months, down 1.4 points to 48.1, which was the same as May.The PMI of the two major industries fell, dragging down the Fortune New China Comprehensive PMI fell 4.5 points to 48.5, the first time since June to the contraction range.
