International Special Special
The Russian and Ukraine War made the Russian mercenary organization Wagner Group's reputation, not only becoming the darling of the Russian Patriotic media and the Russian enemy, also caused Ukraine and allies who support it to fight against the war.Some Western officials and experts believe that compared with participating in the war in Ukraine, The rapid expansion of the Wagner Group in Africa is even more worrying.It may become a severe global threat in the future.
"They threaten stable, destroy the good governance, and plunder the country's mineral resources and infringement of human rights." In December 2022, the US Secretary of State Broskere's American -African Leadership Summit held in Washington, which described the Wagner Group of Russia (Wagner Group) Activities in Africa.
When Bronken visited Niger on March 16, he reiterated this view."Where Wagner goes, bad things will inevitably follow ... We see that some countries have become more vulnerable, more poor, unsafe, and independent because of the relationship between Wagner."
Last month, French President Macron pointed out before visiting Africa that Wagner Group is a group of criminal mercenaries, hoping that African countries will stop hiring this organization that "only spreads suffering".
Politico reported that the Wagner Group has a wide range of impact on national security and foreign policies, and European and American officials have recently held closed -door meetings with African officials to discuss how to curb the expansion of the Wagner Group.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Wagner Group has 5,000 mercenaries in Africa, almost as many as 6,000 U.S. military in Africa, and Wagner's influence in Africa has expanded, helping to be isolated from Western Russia ’s projection power and overseas projection force and overseas.Earn income.
is considered the Kremlin agent
During the Soviet period, Moscow won the local favors due to support for anti -colonial struggles in African countries.With the reduction of Western military existence in Africa, Western countries are worried that Russia may take the opportunity to fill vacuum and use the network of Wagner Group to establish new partnerships, thereby affecting the Foreign policy of Africa and inciting anti -Western mood.
Federica Saini Fasanotti, a researcher at the American Think Tank Brukins, said that the core of Russia's expansion in Africa's influence activities is to provide rebels and counter -terrorism training and suggestions for the African government through private security enterprises; thisThe practice can not only avoid the domestic dissatisfaction that the regular soldiers and the possible domestic Russian army, but also give the Kremlin's ability to reasonably push up.
The Kremlin has denied associated with the Wagner Group, saying that private enterprises have the right to operate anywhere.However, the US State Department said that Wagner Group is an agent for Russia to carry out hidden armed operations overseas.The investigation report issued by the Foreign Affairs Committee of the British House of Commons in October 2022 also pointed out that the Wagner Group is a commercial organization driven by interests, and on the other hand, it is "a downright Kremlin agent."
Under the fundamental problem of unstable in the West that has failed to solve the unstable Africa, the Russian private military companies such as Wagner Group have greatly attracted the African countries governments.Fasani pointed out that unlike Western partners such as the United States, mercenaries will not impose any human rights obligations to employers, and the government who hires them can launch military operations without fear.
Africa is an important ticket warehouse for the United University and the most increased potential export market for Russia
Wagner Group is active in many countries in Africa.The Russian Ambassador to the Central African Republic, Bittov, said last month that 1,890 Russian military instructors are currently working in the Central African Republic.It is generally believed that the so -called "instructor" is Wagner's mercenaries.In Libya, as many as 1,200 Wagner mercenaries are fighting for the Eastern strong Harvar.
The Mali Military Government has reportedly introduced hundreds of Wagner soldiers, which is considered to accelerate the break from France and the former colonies.In August last year, the last batch of French soldiers in Mali evacuated, and France's nine -year -old counter -terrorism operation was announced.
Russia's pursuit of expanding influence in Africa has not only considerations of diplomatic and security, but also the demands of economic benefits.Africa is an important ticket warehouse of the United Nations General Assembly. It accounts for 54 votes in all 193 votes. At the time of isolation in the West, a good relationship with Africa will help consolidate Russia's international influence.
After Russia invaded Ukraine, many African countries remained neutral and refused to condemn Russia.When the UN General Assembly asked Russia to vote from Ukraine last month, 15 African countries voted for votes, and Eritrea and Mali voted against it.
Africa is also the most increasing potential export market in Russia. In 2021, Russian agricultural products accounted for 30%of the total imports of Africa, and Russia accounted for half of the African military fire market.
U.S. officers estimated last year that the Mali government hired Wagner Group's billing bills up to $ 10 million per month (about S $ 13.38 million).It is reported that African countries often pay the Wagner Group's remuneration in the form of natural resources mining rights, considerable commercial contracts, or the permissions of entering the Air Force Base and Port.
The beauty selection of movies to choose to fight against Western emotions
It is generally believed that the Wagner Group's name is taken from Hitler's favorite 19th -century German composer Richard Wagner.It is said that "Wagner" is also Radio Call Sign, the first warfare commander of this organization, Dmitri Utkin.
The Wagner Group was established in 2014. At that time, it fought alongside the Russian and Ukraine rebels to help Russia annexes the Crimea Peninsula.The organization later participated in the Syrian civil war and began to enter Africa.
In Russia, private military company (PMC) is not recognized by law.Before the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, Perigo had repeatedly clarified the relationship with it, and it was not until last year that the organization was established.The Internet Research Agency, which was accused of intervention in the US election, was also founded by him.
At the end of last year, the Wagner Group opened a new headquarters and technology center in St. Petersburg.The Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) reported at the time that a joint -stock company called "PMC Wagner Center" was also registered in St. Petersburg, and Russia had not previously registered a legal entity registered in the name "Wagner".
Wagner has developed from a simple private military contractor to a group with complex business alliances and relations, as well as many related companies. In addition to providing security and military services, it also involves mining, logging, protection, protectionTeams, monitoring customs, winemaking and other areas that can make money.
Fake information in Africa slander the democratic system to advocate the Russian authoritarian model
It is also accused of collecting information and launching information for the Kremlin.According to a survey of "ALL EYES on Wagner", Wagner has a team of political scientists who specialize in African issues.
Djibril Fuma, a consultant to the Blair Global Change Institute, said that Wagner Group spreads false information in Africa through various methods such as reflecting publicity videos, cosmetic contests, and manufacturing fake videos, mainly in Africa.The purpose is to slander the democratic system and increase the attractiveness of the Russian authority model to African leaders.
The Wagner Group has also made a movie. The Best In Hell, which was released last year, tells the Ukrainian war. The score of 6.5 on the IMDB of the film and television website; another movie in 2021 tells that the Wagner Group's confrontation in the Chinese and African Republic "The story of bandits.
ThePolitico survey shows that in the past few years, the Wagner Group has also tried to launch false information and political influence activities in European countries such as Estonia to provoke anti -NATO and anti -Western emotions.
Russia or use in non -influence to add chaos to South Europe
The West believes that the Wagner Group does not help African countries to maintain stability, but will exacerbate the unstable situation.Some critics believe that the Wagner Group deliberately incite chaos in order to make profits and promote Russia's strategic interests.Wagner's mercenaries also faced allegations of human rights violations such as abuse of innocence and sexual assault.
Western policy makers are also worried that Russia may use its influence in Africa to create problems for southern European countries.Compared with the NATO East Wing, the human resources and maritime power of NATO southern wing are insufficient.If Russia has exacerbated the instability of Sahler and China -Africa regions through multinational terrorism activities, population sales, cyber attacks, and challenges, and EU security may be affected.
Petr TUMA, the European Center Visiting Scholar of the Atlantic Council, pointed out: "North Africa (Libya) and Sahler are the weakness of southern Europe. In addition to Moscow, they can start in the east (Ukraine, Bargan countries, or Syria).You can spread unstable factors from these areas. "
The Italian government earlier pointed out that the Wagner Group was a pushing behind the surge in immigrant ships in central Mediterranean, saying that this was one of the means of Moscow's retaliation to support Ukraine countries.
Compared with Western media and analysts, Chinese scholars actively view Russia into Africa.Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in a comment that Russia's accelerated layout in Africa is to deal with Western diplomatic isolation and military surrounds.More importantly, it is to show Russia's determination to participate in global affairs.
Western focusing on the welcomes of African partners in the West
He pointed out that Russia has been actively building non -Western -led international organizations and international dialogue platforms to expand the right to speak in Africa and balance the voice from the West.
Russia now seems to be more popular among African partners compared to the West, which has been focusing on the competition in large powers in recent years.Politico reported that American officials said that Western partners were more reliable and tried to persuade the Republic of China and the Wagner Group to cut off the seats, but they were rejected.
The report quoted a government telegram saying that the Prime Minister of the Central African Republic Malowa stated at a meeting with US officials in January that the Republic of China and Africa "did not accept partners to restrict whose partners can cooperate with whom."He questioned why the Chinese and African Republics were condemned for accepting the help, and said that "Wagner is at least doing things."
Tama believes that Europe should currently focus on countries that may establish relations with Wagner Group, provide these governments with required assistance, promote solutions driven by these countries and Africa, and strengthen false information that combat Russia's spread.
Putin uses Wagner to balance domestic forces in China
The 61 -year -old Pricigo has served in the Soviet prison for nine years in prison for robbery and fraud, and then started from selling hot dogs and developed into a catering tycoon.He once served meals for the Kremlin, known as "Putin Chef".
The Wagner Group has become a well -known "patriotic" organization from the underground military regiments that are unable to see, and enhanced Perig's popularity and image in Russia.However, the Wagner Group and Pryigon apparently have become a nail in the military, and the struggle between the two sides is fierce.
After Russia controlled the town of Wudong Solidar in January this year, Perigo said that it was the credit of the Wagner Group and emphasized that no other troops participated.
The Russian Ministry of National Defense did not mention the Wagner Group in the relevant announcement, but later admitted that Wagner was put here.Porigen even blatantly criticized senior military officials such as the National Defense Minister, Hagu, and other senior military officials.
The Institute of Non -profit Think Tank Institute (ISW) believes that the Russian Ministry of Defense may be using the Wudong Bach Murut Campaign to consume Wagner's strength, weaken the organization, and prevent Pritig's influence from expanding its influence in the Kremlin.
Some analysts believe that Pleigo's opposition with the military may be one of Putin's strategies for Balance of Domestic forces in Putin. Without Putin's acquiescence, Pleigo may not dare to blame the military.
How does Putin think of Porigen Ren or reuse or abandon this chess piece next, it is unknown to the outside world.However, some analysts believe that Wagner Group can focus more on Africa if he fails to fight with the military and is forced to withdraw from the Ukrainian battlefield.
The effect of sanctions in the West is not great
The West has imposed sanctions on Wagner Group with some related entities and individuals.In January of this year, the United States listed Wagner Group as a multinational criminal organization, but so far these sanctions have had little effect.
Worried about affecting the affecting relationship with Africa Washington Waifigner as a terrorist organization
Financial Times reported in February that in the four years before the outbreak of the Russia and Ukraine War, the founder of the Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin alone used natural resources such as oil and gas, diamonds and gold in Africa and the Middle East, and thenEarn $ 50 million in revenue.
In December last year, a cross -party member group in the United States proposed a draft, asking Brinken to list Wagner as a foreign terrorist organization.However, because of the concerns of affecting the relationship and cooperation with African countries, the Bayeng government is still unwilling to do so.
The Hill quoted a assistant to the United States Congress: "The State Council is worried that if Wagner is suddenly listed as a foreign terrorist organization, the national government and officials who have exchanged with it will be banned immediately in the United States. TheyAssets in U.S. assets will also freeze. "
Naman Karl-Thomas Habtom, a visiting researcher at the University of Liberty, Belgium, pointed out that African countries, which are related to the Wagner Group, may also be sanctioned and faced the risk of being listed as a country in terrorist countries.The country that was originally in crisis was worsened.
Listing Wagner Group as a terrorist organization may not work, and may even have anti -effects."The upgrade of the Cold War remarks may be forced to unite the sanctioned government ... This may deepen Russia andThe relationship between the government government."
At present, Estonia and Lithuania have claimed that the Wagner Group is a terrorist organization.
