Geopolical fission Russia and Bing Rong are hard to rest

Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, accelerated changes in the global geopolitical pattern, and the two major political groups in the east and west hemisphere accelerated.

Russia invaded neighbor Ukraine. Although this neighbor is not a member of NATO, it has the support of the United States behind it, prompting the Russian battle to quickly become a conflict between Russia and Western camps.

Warfire made Europe and the United States unite again. NATO's re -finding a clear opponent also prompted European and American to repair bilateral relations cracks caused by unilateralism when the former US President Trump was in power.For the Bayeng government, Russia's invasion can be described as the door, consolidating European camps that were originally observed in the United States, realized European and American unity in geopolitics, and jointly supported Ukraine and sanctioning Russia.

After the Cold War, NATO, led by the United States as a regional security organization, has lost its meaning.Russia's hostility to NATO and even invading Ukraine made NATO's re -finding the meaning and goals of the existence. Finland and Sweden's application added to highlight this.

China and Russia are forced to move closer to each other?

Russia's invasion of Ukraine also allows Beijing to be extremely carefully balanced with foreign policies against Russia and the West.On the one hand, Beijing supports Russia, attacking the interests of Moscow in Western countries; but on the other hand, it keeps a distance from Putin's aggression and sometimes even criticize.

However, under the severe sanctions of Western countries, Russia still has to move closer to China, such as exporting more energy to Beijing to maintain fiscal revenue.Russia and Ukraine's long -standing war will greatly weaken Russia's national strength, causing Moscow to be weak in Sino -Russian relations.

The more and more competitive competition between China and the United States has also made Beijing regard Moscow as a more important strategic partner to compete for Western countries' pressure on China in all aspects.

Although this war is far from Europe, the changes brought are not far from us.

In addition to the rise in energy and food prices caused by war, the Russian and Ukraine war actually affects Asia's security.First of all, the ending of the war will decide whether the existing international order based on rules can still be maintained; second, the Russian and Ukraine War has become increasingly revealing the characteristics of the agent's war, which contains the risk of the out of control of the power of the great power.Concern -whether military conflicts will also be staged in the Taiwan Strait.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has triggered whether Western countries are concerned about whether they will use force to deal with cross -strait issues.Taiwan is concerned that once Mainland China attacks Taiwan, whether Europe and the United States will only provide military aid and economic support like supporting Ukraine without sending troops directly to defend Taiwan.

With the intensification of competition between the United States and China, the Taiwan Strait has become the wrestling field of the two countries, and the "strategic fuzzy" of the United States seems to be no longer blurred, and Beijing has become more and more clear about the preparations and ability to show "martial arts".

The Russian and Ukraine War also enabled Japan to usher in the normalization of national defense forces.Japan has determined that the surrounding security environment has deteriorated rapidly, formulated a new national security strategy, and strengthened its own deterrence, including the establishment of a counterattack against the enemy.

The supply chain turbine causes various uneasiness

In addition to geopolitical tensions, the Russian and Ukraine War also pushed global inflation and caused climate warming to more severe.The report of the reports jointly written by the European climate change and the Ukrainian government reported that the climate damage caused by the Russian and Ukraine war pointed out that the war has been hit for seven months and has discharged at least 100 million tons of carbon dioxide, which is equivalent to the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions of the Netherlands during the same period.

Western countries' sanctions on Russia's energy distorted the energy market, and emission reduction commitments were affected.

The Russian and Ukraine War has not yet seen the dawn

Whether this conflict can end has not yet seen the dawn, and the prospects are still blurred.Entering 2023, there may be six development directions in the Russian and Ukraine War. The most optimistic may be that the Russian -Ukraine signed a peace agreement or a temporary ceasefire agreement was reached.

It is generally believed that the possibility of signing a peace agreement is very low.Russia officially annexed the four occupation areas in Ukraine in September 2022. Donetsk, Lugusk, Zapolo and Hermone, which account for 15%of Ukraine land, have been identified as legal territories by Russia. Therefore, for Russia, Defending these "land" is also a battle of justice.In the same way, Ukraine cannot give up to recapture these countries.

Besides, the goal of Ukraine President Zeleki is to recapture all territories annexed by Russia, including Crimea, which entered Russia in the hands of Russia in 2014.

Russia and Ukraine's ultimate goal of this war is very different, and it is difficult to reach a peace agreement.

Even if the negotiations between the two parties reached a temporary ceasefire agreement, the war of war may still re -ignition for various reasons, resulting in a sudden end of the temporary ceasefire agreement.

Russia may want the ceasefire agreement to cause Western countries to lose interest in long -term support for Ukraine, and eventually change the power Libra between Russia and Ukraine, so that Russia will usher in the opportunity to conquer Ukraine again, but Western countries will not easily make it succeed.

Nowadays, all parties expect Russia to launch a new round of violent offensive this spring. The Kremlin collected 300,000 reserve forces in September last year.Ukrainian officials estimate in early February this year that as many as 320,000 Russian soldiers are currently in Ukraine.This means that there are soldiers in Russia to attack Ukraine.

If the war ended with Russia's victory, the war will end, and Ukraine may become a vassal country in Russia and even be annexed by Russia.However, Russia's victory fruit is likely to be bitter, and it still has to deal with the guerrilla warfare of Ukraine anti -Russian elements and the pressure of sanctions that Western countries are likely to increase.

On the other hand, Ukraine may win, although the possibility is not high.

Russian reporter Leonid Beershidsky and Russian scientists and analysts Andrey Piontkovsky believe that Ukraine may defeat Russia.

Piecekovsky believes that there are two factors that contribute to this result: First, the motivation, determination and courage of the Ukrainian nation and the army, it is unprecedented in the history of modern war;I finally realized that the challenges faced in the Ukraine crisis were very severe.

Pohdsky predicts that after the Ukraine troops capture Melitopol, they can take Mali Ubol directly to cut off Russia's "land corridor" to Crimea, and quicklyRussian forces in Donbass and Crimean are low.

Most scholars believe that this conflict is probably protracted. Russia and Ukraine will fight back and forth on the front line. Ukraine takes guerrilla warfare on Russia's control territory, while Russia attacked Ukraine's target remotely.Russia's goal is to weaken Ukraine's resources, economy and troops, rather than seize more territories.

Western countries promise to support Ukraine, but the weapons provided are not enough to make Ukraine a strong counterattack.

The long -term war tests the political, economic and military determination of the two sides of the war and the power behind the forces.Russia's risk is that the long -lasting war can lead to the bankruptcy of the national economic bankruptcy and the internal collapse, and once again staged a scene similar to the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991.However, after a year of war, Russia's total economic volume only shrinks by 2.1%last year. Only about half of the world in the world followed the West to impose sanctions on Russia, so that Russia can continue to export energy and imports needed for discounts.Economic operation.

On the side of Ukraine, how long the support of Western countries can be maintained is also a problem.However, if Russia defeats, the dominant position of the United States in international affairs will be greatly affected, so the United States will not easily cause Ukraine to fall down.

The best result of the long -lasting war is to promote the two parties to sit down and negotiate, promote a ceasefire agreement or a peace agreement.

The worst ending of the long -lasting war is that Russia uses nuclear weapons under tremendous pressure, or NATO intervention has become a comprehensive war.

One year after the war, the Russian and Ukraine War was still stuck. How did it end in the air, but it is an indisputable fact that it is increasingly integrated with geopolitical risks in East and Western countries.

It was a severe winter in a blink of an eye, and the war on the Ukraine land was still burning.One year's special report of the Russian and Ukraine War, see > Interactive news.