International Special Special
In recent years, the world's strong country's military expenditure has increased year by year, forming a arms race,
The world's strong power confrontation, and the crisis of nuclear war seems to be getting closer and closer to everyone.
In the past two or three years, the China and the United States are fiercely competing, and then the Russian and Ukraine War broke out. The US -Russian military power is increasingly involved.Surrounding and like -minded countries, such as Japan, South Korea, India, Australia, European countries, Iran, and North Korea standing together; some other countries have begun to choose the side stations, and some want to meet each other.For many countries, the considerations of diplomacy and military are more important than the national economy at this moment.
In order to block China to launch the Indo -Pacific Strategy, the United States has an "Quad Safety Dialogue" (Quad) with Japan, India, and Australia in 2017, and established the United States and Australia's three -sided security partnership (AUKUS) in September 2021 in September 2021.EssenceAfter Russia invaded Ukraine, the United States led NATO to assist Ukraine to resist Russia, and Western countries' cooperative relations have become increasingly closer.
NATO approves NATO 2022 strategic concept at the Madrid Summit last July, saying that Russia pose a largest and direct threat to the West.This document provides guidance for NATO's development in the next 10 years.Facing the security threat of Russia, NATO will expand the NATO rapid reaction force, increase the strength to more than 300,000, and strengthen the defense of NATO East Wing region.
Russia has been playing nuclear martial arts cards
Now it is clear that the United States has the Seventh Kingdom Group (G7), NATO, and other partner countries, which can mobilize the power.There are Iran and North Korea in China and Russia, and there are not many allies other than that.
However, Russia is a nuclear martial arts power, and Russia has been playing nuclear martial arts cards. This has indeed played a role in the countermeasures of the two camps, so that Europe and the United States have some scruples when assisting Ukraine.
In the past year, US President Biden has been criticized for many times in assisting Ukraine.U.S. officials have repeatedly explained that the priority of the United States is to ensure that the war will not evolve into a nuclear military conflict between Russia and the West.
The New York Times quoted US officials and said that the Biden government is trying to distinguish the threat of Russian President Putin and the possibility of his use of nuclear weapons.They estimate that once Putin wants to raise the level of the alert, it will be publicly displayed publicly to show the transfer weapon or release messages to let the West know.U.S. officials also list the possibility of Russia's use of nuclear weapons, that is, Putin's power is threatened. When Moscow believes that NATO directly involves the Ukraine War, or Russia may use nuclear weapons in Russia.
Nine -lapse nuclear country formed two major confrontation camps
There are nine nuclear countries around the world. In addition to China, the United States and Russia, there are also France, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea, most of which are within two major confrontation camps.Among them, Israel is pro -United States, and India still traveled to China, the United States and Russia, and did not clearly support which party.
According to the statistics of the United States Scientist Federation, Russia has the most nuclear bombs, up to 5977, and 5,428 in the United States.The US -Russian nuclear warheads accounted for about 90 % of the total worldwide.There are 350 pieces in China.
Russia and the United States originally negotiated about the New Start of the New Start at the end of last year to limit the number of nuclear bombs that can be deployed on both sides.However, Russia has accused the United States of trying to manipulate the treaty to occupy an advantage and withdraw from the eve of the negotiation.The United States and Russia signed the treaty in 2010 and officially implemented in February of the following year. The two countries agreed to extend the treaty's validity period to 2026 in 2021.
The movement of China, a nuclear country, attracts attention.Japanese media recently disclosed that China is considering that in 2035 to increase the inventory of nuclear warheads by more than 900 to 900 to strengthen nuclear deterrence, and that Chinese officials have approved this.
China plans to realize national defense and military modernization in 2035.As early as November last year, the United States estimated that China's nuclear bomb will reach 1,500 in 2035.Some foreign affairs experts have warned that when China realizes the modernization of the army, it may give up the promise of "not using nuclear weapons first".
Japan India launches an expansion plan
The reports of the Stockholm Institute of International Peace, Sweden have repeatedly pointed out that the expenditures of military expenditures in global countries have continued to increase.Japan and India are also expanding their military plans.
Japan will double the defense expenditure within five years. The government passed three security documents through the national security strategy strategy of defense strategies and defense forces in December last year.1 % increase to 2 %.
India has relied on Russia's weapon equipment for decades. Now it will go to national defense self -reliance and start producing rifles, tanks, helicopters, transport aircraft and aircraft carriers.
The largest helicopter factory in Asia is located in Kanatakbon, southwest of India, and can produce at least 1,000 helicopters each year.India wants to strengthen its maritime power. The first domestic aircraft carrier "INS VIKRANT" officially served in September last year.Its first domestic nuclear -powered submarine successfully tested ballistic missiles, making India one of the six military power of the world's six land -sea and air nuclear strike capabilities.
Australia, as an ally in the United States in Asia -Pacific, has frequent military cooperation between the two countries.Starting from the past President Obama, thousands of U.S. Marine War members took turns to conduct training and joint military exercises in northern Australia each year.
The United States and Britain will provide technology to assist the Australian nuclear submarine forces
In order to fight against China's increasingly powerful military power, the United States and the United Kingdom will provide Australia with technology to assist Australia to establish a nuclear submarine forces in 2040.In addition, at the end of last year, it was reported that the United States planned to deploy a maximum of six B-52 bomber carrying nuclear bombs in northern Australia.These moves of the United States and Australia annoyed China. Beijing said that this will exacerbate the tension in East Asia.
The Russian and Ukraine War may be upgraded to the "Doomsday Clock" for the nuclear war for 10 seconds
Scientists dial the pointer of the "Doomsday Clock" last month for 10 seconds, only 90 seconds left at midnight symbolizing the end of the day.This made UN Secretary -General Gutres disturbing.
Gutres warned at the UN General Assembly on February 6 that once the Russian and Ukraine War was further upgraded, he was worried about thisThe field war will unknowingly expand, evolving into a wider war, causing greater damage.
TheDoomsday Clock was established by the Atomic Scientist Bulletin Magazine, which is headquartered in Chicago in 1947. It is a fictional bell surface, which aims to show how close to the end of the world.It decides whether to dial or slow down the pointer according to the level of destruction risks facing the earth and humans every year, including politics, weapons, climate change, and epidemic.This time the 10 seconds was the closest to midnight, reflecting the concerns of the Russian -Ukraine War to be upgraded into a nuclear war.
CanCan nuclear war out of?The Washington Think Tank American Foreign Relations Association judged that Russia's possibility of using nuclear weapons is still very small, but once Putin feels desperate, it is likely to use nuclear weapons to reverse destiny in the war.
The analysis of the US Foreign relations Association pointed out that if Russia uses nuclear weapons, there will be three scenarios in war:
One, Russia tests nuclear weapons to warn Ukraine and Western countries to show Moscow's determination and ability.
Second, Russia attacked Ukraine's military or energy infrastructure with tactical nuclear weapons to weaken Ukraine's will and military forces.Russia has about 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons.
Third, attack Ukraine's civilian target or partner country near Ukraine with strategic nuclear weapons, and will be hundreds of times stronger than the attack of tactical nuclear weapons.Russia may target military facilities or infrastructure related to the Ukrainian war, such as Polish arms supply line or weapon inventory facilities in the Baltic Sea.Russia should not bomb major western cities such as Paris or Los Angeles, because doing so will only lead to a stronger response in the West.
In addition to nuclear war, countries are also worried that the conflict between the United States and China and Russia will continue, and conflicts may erupt in the future.Looking at the current Sino -US confrontation, each other emphasizes that their political system is the best system in the world, and both sides are turning to the competition of "similar cold war".
Wu Muyu, an associate professor of the School of Public Policy of the National University of Singapore, said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that the current US NATO and China and Russia have also supported some of their countries to choose a team, just like the history of the Cold War.
Wu Muyu pointed out that competition between China and the United States is very fierce, there is no intermediate position, and there is no willingness to cool down.
In response to the recent appearances that have been weakened in the Chinese official power in recent months and more willing to succumb to the United States, Wu Muxi believes that it is just the outside world's judgment and understanding. In fact, the West does not understand the idea of Chinese leadership.
"There are some views that Chinese officials hope to have a peaceful environment, especially he starts the third term, because the crown disease epidemic is not so smooth, and the economic situation is not good.This is the wishful thinking. "
Dr. James Dorsey, a senior researcher at the Nanyang University of Science and Technology Rajernan International Research Institute, said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that Sino -US competition continued, and the balloon incident is now under burning.
Scholars: There is still no conducive to Russia and Ukraine negotiation conditions
He believes that the situation in the Taiwan Strait is still under control, unless one party wants to change the status quo.In contrast, the situation of Russia is more complicated. Moscow became a loser at this war, and it must restore the defeat at the expense.
Duoxi said that through negotiations to end or suspend the war, the prerequisite is that Russia or Ukraine must have the willingness to stop war, and it can keep both sides of the face.
"But until now, there are no conditions that are conducive to negotiation, so I think the war will continue."
Putin has repeatedly used nuclear weapons. The Russian army has continued to launch a fierce offensive in the near future that it still has not accounted for cheap. As a result, the possibility of resorting to nuclear weapons has increased?Both scholars believe that Putin is still threatened and dare not come true.
Wu Muyu said: "I think Putin dare not really use nuclear weapons. Putin not only suffered losses in this war, but also a rebound in Russia, facing great political pressure, so he had to worry about"
Duoxi also said that Putin's trouble was very great, and the Russian and Ukraine War made him unable to do it.Nevertheless, Putin should not take the step of nuclear martial arts.
"Putin himself should not launch nuclear wars. What's more, China has stated that there is no nuclear war, and Russia now needs Chinese help."
