Special
Iran has frequently moved in recent months. Obviously, while the United States and NATO are busy dealing with Russia and China, they take the opportunity to get rid of their predicament.
Diplomatic diplomatic, Iran rarely shows that it is necessary to improve the relationship with the enemy Saudi Arabia, consider reopening the embassy, and apply to join the BRICS cooperation mechanism.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullahiyan took the initiative to release goodwill to Saudi on June 26.He said Iran is willing to re -open the embassy with Saudi Arabia in the capital of the two countries.The two major Middle East countries began negotiation last year to seek improvement of bilateral relations.
Iranian officials announced at the end of June that Iran has officially applied to join the ranks of BRICS countries led by China and Russia.In recent years, China's strong national strength and influence have been strengthened, and the weight of the BRICS countries has also increased.
At present, the population of the five countries of the BRICS accounts for about 40 % of the world's total population, and the total economy is about US $ 27.5 trillion (about S $ 39 trillion), accounting for about one -quarter of the global economy.Among them, as the largest economy of the BRICS Group, China's economic volume accounts for 70 %.
Russian President Putin visited Tehran in mid -July, to win Iran's intention.Some analysts said that Russia was sanctioned by the West and has not yet made a breakthrough in the Ukrainian war. Putin naturally wants to seek expansion and deepen relations with Iran, and pull Western enemies to themselves to compete.
On the issue of nuclear weapons, the European Union coordinates the latest negotiations by the United States and Iran at the end of June, and it still has no progress.However, on the table, Iran still shows the sincerity of continuing to negotiate.
Abdullahyan said that he believed that the talks were "positive", and the Iranian side must earnestly strive for a solid and lasting agreement.
Iranian international affairs expert Gali said that the United States' failure to respond to Iran's requirements for guarantee is the main reason for negotiations that failed to resolve the dispute between the two parties.He said that the economic sanctions of the United States in the past few years have exhausted the economy of Iran, and Tehran hopes to benefit from the restoration of the nuclear agreement and economic development.
The Russian and Ukraine war changes the oil market and Iranian changes to change positions
However, experts pointed out that Iran's position in nuclear negotiations was uncertain, causing the negotiations to stagnate.Bob, an intelligence analyst at the Jerusalem Post, said that the highest spiritual leader of Iran's highest spiritual leader, Hamenei, has repeatedly repeatedly.
He pointed out that Hamenei's originally allowed to resume negotiations from the end of 2021 to the beginning of this year. Later, the West and Russia had conflicts due to the invasion of the Russian army. At that time, the United States and Iraqi were approaching an agreement.
"Hamonei judged that the international current situation will change, new splitting of the world economy, and the West also suddenly needs oil resources to replace Russian oil, which may give Iran the opportunity to occupy the upper hand. Therefore, Iran leaves the negotiations.Table. "
Iran's actions on nuclear weapons are also a big variable.The United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency issued a report at the end of May that Iran's highly concentrated uranium inventory increased by 30 % within three months, accumulating a 60 % rich uranium inventory of 43 kg.
TheThe Iranian government has also continued to obstruct the investigation of inspectors on nuclear activities, demolished more than 20 international observer to monitor Iranian nuclear activities, causing dissatisfaction with Grassis, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The concentrated uranium abundance required for manufacturing nuclear weapons is 90 %, and a nuclear bomb requires about 25 kg of concentrated uranium.Judging from Iran's current uranium inventory, it is fully capable of manufacturing nuclear weapons in the short term.Military reserve control experts point out that raising from 60 % to 90 % will not constitute any technical challenges to Iran.
Kim Boer, an expert at the think tank of the Army Reserve Control Association: "Iran has now accumulated enough concentrated uranium to quickly produce a large number of highly concentrated uranium to make a bomb ... Now to determine how long Iran can make a nuclear bomb for a nuclear bomb.It is measured for a few days, not a few months or weeks. "
In 2015, Iran reached a nuclear military agreement with the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany to limit the enrichment of Iranian uranium to 3.67 %, and Iran in exchange for sanctions from the international community.However, in 2018, the United States unilateral withdrawal agreement and resumed sanctions on Iraqi. In order to retaliate, Iran gradually stopped performing the clause of the agreement since 2019.
Iran scares Western countries from time to time. At the end of May, a large number of unmanned fighter equipment was publicly displayed to "show" military strength.Iran pointed out that these drones are not inferior to the U.S. military, claiming that Iran is already the "drone superpower" in the Persian Gulf region.
The United States has always accused Iran of sending drones to directly or indirectly attack the merchant ships and Saudi refineries in the US and Western countries, but the Iraqi side has denied it.
Economic slumped and the epidemic severely forced Iran to move closer to China
Iran is also a large energy power, with a quarter of the Middle East with oil reserves and the world's second largest natural gas reserves.
Now the global recessive energy crisis, Iran can try to bargain with Western countries.In particular, the price of oil is expensive. The U.S. urgently needed oil allocation to increase production to assist in low oil prices. In addition to showing Saudi Arabia to gain production, there are also news that the United States may lift some oil embargo against Venezuela.
Iran's domestic problems are serious, the economy is sluggish, the people's livelihood is trapped, the crown disease is still severe, and the possibility of chaos in the society has to move closer to China.
In recent years, Iran has become closer and closer.In March 2021, the two countries signed a comprehensive cooperation agreement between China and Iran.According to the agreement, China will invest 400 billion U.S. dollars (about S $ 560.5 billion) in 25 years, which will help Iran a lot; in 2021, Iran's application for joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is approved.
In April of this year, Wei Feng, a Chinese State Commissioner and Minister of Defense, met with the Iranian President Laich in Tehran, and both sides stated that they would strengthen military cooperation.In the past few years, the two countries have increased their military connections and held joint maritime military exercises.
Looking at the future, China -Iran relations will continue to strengthen.Alessandro Arduino, chief researcher of the Singapore National University of China, and the Middle East of the Singapore National University of China, accepted a joint morning newspaper that once Iran becomes a member of the BRICS mechanism, the biggest gain is political recognition. This layerSignificance is over the support that you can get economically.Judging from the interests of Iran, Tehran urgently needs both.
As for whether Iran will "take risks", like North Korea, it also conducts nuclear tests to openly provoking it to create new troubles for the United States and Western countries to improve the "chip" of negotiations?
Apunnuo believes that nuclear weapons are still the last threat.Unmanned fighter aircraft is the most affordable way for Tehran to apply pressure. Even if the enemy counterattacks, the consequences are still tolerated.
