In the past two Malaysian elections, UMNO has lost a large number of Malaysian voters, but about 3.44 million party members are still the largest political parties in Malaysia, which has given it a reunification of Dongshan.UMNO will hold a perennial conference from August 21st to 24th.This year is not the party's selection, and there are still at least two years before the national election, which means that there will be no power struggle on the bright side during the conference.This is the best time for the promising UMNO adjustment direction from a new departure, and it is also the best platform to observe whether Umno is undercurrent and brewing a new round of party struggle.
The former Malaysian Prime Minister and former UMNO Chairman Najib got involved in a scandal of Malaysia Development Co., Ltd., which led the UMNO National Front to the central government for the first time in the 2018 election.The results of the 2022 election showed that UMNO further lost the support of voters, and the opponent National Alliance's main members of the National Unity Party and the Islamic Party were more popular with Malay voters.
Although Umno became a member of the unity government by supporting the way of the prediction of the chairman of the Alliance Anhua after the last election, the image of UMNO has not fully recovered from a scandal.Hexi is still full of controversy and faces criticism inside and outside the party from time to time.
It has been nearly two years after the government has been in power. Umno does not seem to have tasted too much sweetness, and still cannot win the support of Malay voters in many supplementary elections.The questioning of cooperation.
Some of the grassroots of UMNO blame the current party's dilemma on the cooperation of the Pakatan Harapan, especially the Democratic Action Party.It is generally believed that the cooperation between the Barisan Nasional and the Pakatan Harapan is the result of Ahmad Zaji regardless of most of the party's intentions, so there has always been a voice of dissatisfaction with him.
Before the Umno National Congress this year, many district ministries and ministries have passed proposals to request the party election.This is not unusual in Umno, which is regarded as a blatantly challenging the party's supreme leadership, because the chairman of the UMNO district generally belongs to the party chairman, and Ahmad Zahi has previously launched the "Clear Party" operation.There should not be a district chairman to sing against him publicly.
I think it is the "Sheraton Incident". The outside world has speculated that Ahmad Zahi is for self -rescue
At the time of a subtle atmosphere, Ahmad Zahi suddenly acknowledged at the UMNO Golden Malun District Department on August 10 that he was the collapse of the Pakatan Harapan government led by former Prime Minister Mahathir.In the year of the "Sheraton Incident", he explained that this was to save UMNO and avoid Umno from being banned by Mahathir.
Ahmad Zahi also said that Anwar confirmed that the prohibited UMNO documents had been placed at the Muyudin table at the time of the Minister of the Political Affairs and currently the chairman of the Turkish Regiment.Ahmad Zahi shaped himself as a "saving party hero", which caused the outside world to speculate that this was a move that he tried to save himself due to threats in the mainland of the party.
Xu Guowei, a commentator of the Ma Guo current affairs, analyzed the United Morning Post that in addition to strengthening the image of Umno's "savior" in addition to strengthening this, Ahmad Zahi was also to further strengthen the cooperation between UMNO and the Pakatan Harapan to counterattack the partyDoubt and doubt.
Xu Guowei said: "The district ministries in various parts of UMNO have appeared in many ways to review the cooperation between UMNO and Pakatan Harapan. They believe that cooperation with the Pakatan Harapan, especially the People's Bank of China, is not much good for UMNO and the Barisan Nasional. In particular, 7On the 6th, the UN Ug -Prefecture Establishment District was elected in Penang, Penang, so that Umno's "Pakatan Harapan+Barisan Nasional" Victory Formula was built in the new ancient Mao Mao supplement in Selangor./P>
"As a result, Ahmad Zahi regarded Mahathir and Muyudin as an enemy to eliminate UMNO, made himself a savior of UMNO, and described Anhua as a nobleman who helped to save Umno.The status of herself and Anwar is also reminding Umno grassroots, who is the enemy. "
Francis Hutchinson, directorEssence
He said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post: "Ahmad Zahi aims to shape himself as a long -awaited strategic leader, that is, his decision (support Anwar) at first glance, but in the end to the partyFaid.
Liu Weicheng, assistant professor of the Department of Political and News, Malaysia Laoman University, pointed out that the support rate of Umno's UMNO is still low, the voice of dissatisfaction with UMNO seems to be higher and higher, and whether UMNO continues to be with Greece.Differential cooperation in the alliance has led to the discreteness of the people inside Umno, and there will be a call for the opening of the second higher vocational election in the party in the party.
Liu Weicheng told the United Morning Post: "The UMNO Party Chairman is rare in the campaign. After the establishment of the new UMNO (in 1988), the party chairman has only one time in 2018. This is because of the campaign because of the campaign.The threshold of the party chairman is too high, and few people have been nominated by the district ministry in the past.
"From the past cases, you can see that whenever the UMNO has a chairman campaign, it means that there is serious division within the party, and the tendency of party struggle is obvious."
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UMNO's situation is now similar to Liu Weicheng, similar to 2018."Faced with the question of more and more party members, Ahmad Zahi must talk about something to obtain the trust of the party members ... The active mentioning the incident is to show the party members.Forget it.
"These potential meanings will offend the Higong League, and Ahmad Zaji chooses to say these words at this moment, which also means two points: first, he deeply feels that the leadership in the party is unstable; second, recently, recently, recentlyHis cooperation with the Pakatan Harapan really cannot bring more benefits to him."
However, Xu Guowei believes that even if someone is dissatisfied, Ahmad Zahi's position in the party is still difficult to shake, mainly because Umno's party election will not be held in 2026, and now it is impossible to replace the leaders.Then there is still power in the Ahmad Zaji faction, and UMNO is currently not enough to compete with him.
Harchinsen pointed out that the Malaysian election may be held at the end of 2027 or early 2028, and Ahmad Zahi can use the modified party constitution to extend the party to the national election through the modified party constitution.It was held within six months.
In other words, Ahmad Zahi is likely to continue to lead UMNO, until the election, which means that he still has the power to appoint candidates at the election, thereby consolidating his position within the party.
The dilemma of UMNO is difficult to break the dilemma of UMNO
UMNO's election in the 2022 election elected 119 national meetings, only 26 seats won, half less than 54 seats won in the 14th election in 2018.After the election after the election, UMNO's Malay support rates were retreating, which was very different from the situation of the UMNO party when the Barisan Nasional was in power.
The Barisan Nasional that fell from the peak could not escape the law of the tree.There were 13 member parties during the strong period of strong periods. After the 2018 election fell, there were only three, namely UMNO, MCA and the Indian National Party.The Sabah people's unity party later returned to Barisan Nasional, but the momentum of the Barisan Nasional is no longer again.
However, UMNO is still the largest number of Malaysian party members, the largest organization and the largest organization.Despite the sharp decrease in the number of national members, UMNO is still the ruling party of the central and many states. In addition to mastering the huge government resources, it also has the resources of the official association.It is still the main participant on the political stage, occupying a very important position.
The three major political parties, which are mainly Malaysians, are UMNO, Turkish Party and Iraqi Party.Among them, only UMNO is a member of the joint government.This makes UMNO an important alliance partner of the unity government. As long as the people are in peace and place, UMNO will have the opportunity to rise again.
Harchinsen said: "UMNO's current dilemma is not actually united the government (whether to continue to form with the Pakatan Harapan), but how to break through the poor performance in the election.The leadership is unpopular, a horse scandal has damaged the party's reputation, and the party lacks motivation and direction.The Iraqi Party and the Turkish Troupe divided the Malay votes, which made the UMNO situation more difficult. "
Xu Guowei analyzed that the dilemma of UMNO's currently came from the burden formed by the party chairman Ahmad Zahi's personal image, UMNO has no real reforms, and UMNO cannot achieve his achievements and cannot play a subject.
Analysis of the trust of Malay voters in Malay: UMNO must reform
He said: "UMNO Acting Chairman Mohamadha Mountain mentioned in 2023 that UMNO must reform, with the trust of winning Malay voters, and fighting for young voters.. If there is no real reform, it feels a new feeling for voters, UMNO is still the UMNO and will not get out of trouble. "
"The performance of the UMNO leader and the Minister of the Minister of the Vice Minister did not get high scores in several polls. Umno could not achieve the effect on the subject of the attention of Malay voters. How to break UMNO,It can only be said that there is still no best way to take a step.
Liu Weicheng believes that Umno's dilemma has always been only one -the DPP party."All party members of UMNO, including Ahmad Zahi, are very clear that all the alliances entered into the DPP will have good results, because UMNO and the DPP are old -fashioned parties in Malaysia, and they are one left and right.The political platform is completely back. The goal of the grassroots at the grassroots level of the two parties is the opponent: the goal of the DPP party is the "evil Umno ', and the goal of UMNO's struggle is the" Evil Democratic Party ".Historical burden, it is difficult to break ""
"If these two parties have to cooperate well, there is only one possibility, that is, UMNO is dissolved, and then forms the Barisan Nasional Party with the MCA and the Indian National Party.Opportunity to let go of the historical burden and cooperate with the DPP party. "
Grassroots speech becomes the party selection of the wind and the nanta UMNO, it is still worthy of attention
UMNO Conference is not worthy of attention, whether UMNO is still very important.
The Pakatan Harapan led by the Prime Minister of Malaysia relies on UMNO votes in Malay, especially in rural areas.As a result, the Pakatan Harapan and the united government still need UMNO, and UMNO's movement still has certain observation value.
Liu Weicheng said: "The UMNO Conference every year is a platform for the district representatives. They can express their views on the political situation and the future of UMNO in the debate session. From here, we can observe the Umno grassrootsThe idea, and what they expect, what they expect, including what they want the party chairman to bring to them, or whether they have criticized the party chairman.
The 1998 Conference lists Anwar's "Crime"
"UMNO Conference can also reflect whether the status of the party's leaders is stable. Do you still remember when Anhua and Mahathir broke out in 1998?Representatives pass on 50 reasons for Anwar to be the prime minister.
In 1998, before Anwar, then deputy prime minister and Minister of Finance, Mahathir's Cymbedy Ciruin issued a book of 50 reasons for Anwar in the UMNO Conference to be the "Crime ".This book has caused Anwar to be expelled from Mahathir's official and party position, and was arrested and jailed, which in turn settled the political reform campaign for more than 20 years.
Although this year is not an UMNO party election, the representatives will still discuss the dilemma and prospects of the Malay people at the National General Assembly, the various deficiencies of the Malay people, and the place where the government needs.Formulate various assistance measures.
What kind of requests for UMNO representatives through the conference and what the government will agree to it can reflect whether UMNO is still valuable.
Xu Guowei said: "The representative debate of the UMNO Conference also often praises the party leaders, and the content of the leaders who do not name or name the names.After the contents of the media are reported, they can observe the response of the people, especially the Malay society. From this, it can be seen that the Malaysian society is still in UMNO.
Harchinson also pointed out that people can observe what topics and party members are paying attention to and understand their emotions through the UMNO Conference."Some factions within UMNO are dissatisfied with the status quo. They will (in the conference) express dissatisfaction and problems, which has attracted the attention of the party leadership. So even if there is no party election, the party conference is still worth paying attention."
