Chen Qingzhu, a former Singaporean Ambassador and former Ambassador to the United States, believes that if the late founding of the founding country Li Guangyao is alive, he will be surprised to the tight relationship between China and the United States through trade, investment in technology, etc.In the United States, the US policy has shifted from the Trump period; he judged that Chinese leaders and Chinese officials will continue to hide the way, and this is not the case.
Chen Qingzhu expressed the above views on Wednesday (October 4) at the "Asia Foreign -looking Summit 2023" on the sidelines.
Li Guangyao died in March 2015 and last visit to China in 2011.Chen Qingzhu said that Li Guangyao also visited the United States in 2011. He predicts his pre -judgment of Sino -US relations during his lifetime. It should be based on the information held as of 2013, and since then, China and the United States have changed.
Chen Qingzhu believes that Li Guangyao's prediction of relations with China, the United States, and Sino -US relations is part of the words, some otherwise, mainly because he has no chance to see that after the 2016 Trump won the presidential election, the United States has a great policy for China.The change of the trend of population in the United States, "That's not the United States he knows, nor is it the Republicans he knows."
Similarly, Li Guangyao will continue to adopt the late leader Deng Xiaoping to keep his light after the Chinese official administration, but this is not the case.Chen Qingzhu believes that Li Guangyao's judgment on China's rise is right, but when he will abandon the errors of the timetable for China to abandon the vulnerable timetable.
Chen Qingzhu said: "The world is changing fast. China is not China today, and the United States today is not the United States he saw."
Chen Qingzhu served as the permanent representative of Singapore in 1989, and from 1996 to 2012 as the Singapore Ambassador to the United States. It is also the longest former ambassador to Singapore in the United States. He has a long -term observation of the United States.
The Sino -US Science and Technology War began in the Trump period, and it was fully out of Bayeng.Chen Qingzhu said that the deep scientific and technological war between China and the United States on the chip is a topic that Lee Kuan did not touch before his lifetime.
After Trump's administration, it not only launched a science and technology and trade war with China, but also reinterpreted the US -Taiwan relations. Before he was in office, he broke the call with Taiwan Cai Yingwen.After the old Bush administration, the previous US government only sold defensive weapons to Taiwan based on the Taiwan Relations Law, but Trump did not take the routine and sold a new F-16 fighter to Taiwan during his tenure, which caused strong dissatisfaction in Beijing.Essence
Chen Qingzhu said that Li Guangyao's prediction of Taiwan's issue is the biggest crisis in China and the United States. It turns out that this is true. As for his judgment, the United States will not intervene once once the Taiwan Strait broke out. "We are not sure now."
Li Guangyao has predicted that the United States and China are different from the United States and the Soviet Union, and there will be no irreconcilable problems or ideological conflicts in the United States and China.Chen Qingzhu believes that this is also because Li Guangyao saw the situation before Trump came to power. Trump advocated ideas such as democracy and human rights after his administration. Similarly, Lee Kuan Yew did not see Chinese official emphasizing Marx Leninism.
Li Guangyao's views on the international current situation have always been valued by Sino -US leaders.Faced with the current deadlock in Sino -US relations, what would he do if Li Guangyao was still alive?
Chen Qingzhu said that Li Guangyao has always been worried that China and the United States will cause war due to misunderstandings, underestimation and misjudgments. If he is still alive, he must go to Beijing and Washington in person to do his best to explain the situation of the other party in China and the United States.
However, Chen Qingzhu admits that today's China and the United States have domestic political pressure. Can Li Guangyao still shuttle between China and the United States as in the 1970s and 1990s.
For the prospects of Sino -US relations, Chen Qingzhu said that "the expectations are not high, and I hope there is the best result." Once an accidental conflict occurred, she hoped that the two countries had set a protective bar to stop the deterioration of the situation in time.
She revealed that in 2001, a collision incident occurred over Hainan Island in 2001. At that time, the U.S. President's Bush government had many anti -China conservatives.Change.Fortunately, Bush called his son, and former national security adviser Scocrovt also talked with then, then the two national security advisers, and the two wise suggestions were adopted.
Chen Qingzhu asked: "If an unexpected conflict occurs between China and the United States at the moment, who will give Biden and Chinese officials and accept it?"
Facing frozen Sino -US relations and complex geopolitics, Chen Qingzhu believes that Lee Kuan Yew's realistic sense and pragmatic are the best inheritance for this era.
She said that it is difficult to get rid of it as soon as she is set by the ideology.To deal with the problems between the country, the pragmatic spirit can create a flexible space, and it can also solve the problem easier and effectively. However, there is no signal that the United States or China will turn from ideological roads.
Seven principles of Li Guangyao's small country's survival
When talking about Li Guangyao's geopolitical concepts, Chen Qingzhu believes that Li Guangyao's geopolitical view of geopolitics from Singapore's survival perspective has contributed to geopolitical science.She summarizes Li Guangyao's small country's survival principle to seven points.The first point is to establish an internal force first. Only after the internal is strong can there be good foreign policies, and the internal affairs and foreign policies are intertwined.Second, small countries must have "big friends", that is, to be friends with big powers.Third, Singapore, as a small country, must adhere to the international order based on the rule of law, otherwise national sovereignty may be violated.
Chen Qingzhu's "Li Guangyao's Political Concept" also includes Singapore's emphasis on diversified racism and secularization, because it is conducive to strengthening the cohesion of the country. Otherwise, in Southeast Asia, it is easy to attract external forces and power to differentiate society.The fifth point is that multilateralism is important for small countries. Therefore, Singapore has joined organizations such as non -alliance campaigns, Asianan and G77 Groups, and actively promoted multilateral trade agreements such as the comprehensive progress of cross -Pacific partnerships (CPTPP).
In addition, small countries must move towards international development and connect with the world.The seventh point is to invite the large country to the area. If there is only a single strong country, it is difficult for small countries to have room for rotation, and the multi -pole pattern creates space for small and medium -sized countries.
Chen Qingzhu said that the above seven principles still have a reference significance for small countries. "In fact, many small countries look at the Singapore manual and see what they can pick."
