(Hanoi News) Vietnam's population exceeded 100 million in April this year, and as the population expected life expectancy extended and the fertility rate decreased, Vietnam was moving towards the aging of the population.Experts believe that Vietnam should effectively use the current golden period of the population, that is, when the proportion of labor population is high, and the burden of raising children and the elderly is relatively light, it will increase labor productivity and accelerate economic development. Otherwise, the huge population may become timing bombs.
VNEXPRESS reports that Vietnam's golden period began in 2007 and is expected to end in 2039.At that time, at least two people in the labor age must take care of a child who is less than 15 years old or older over 65 years old.
The golden period of population is a good opportunity for the country to develop economy and society, and to give full play to the advantages of young labor, it can also accumulate resources to cope with the problem of population aging.
Scholars: Japan and South Korea have increased their average annual income of 10 times in the 30 -year period of the population.
Ruan Qinglong, the population and development expert of the National Economic University of Vietnam, pointed out that in the history of each country, the golden period of population will only appear once; if there is no proper strategy to grasp and make good use of this unique opportunity, it will missGood opportunities, unable to benefit from it.
Taking Japan and South Korea as an example, these two countries entered the golden period of population in 1963 and 1987. After 30 years, the per capita annual income increased by 10 times, reaching $ 37,000 (about S $ 50,000)And $ 30,000.On the other hand, Thailand entered the golden period of population in 1992. Nearly 30 years later, when the population began to aging, the per capita annual income increased by only to $ 7,100, which belonged to a middle -income country.
If the elderly over 65 years old account for the total population, Vietnam is the third highest in Southeast Asian countries, ranking after Thailand and Singapore.And 121st in the world, belongs to low -income countries.
The Vietnamese government acknowledged in 2017 that it did not formulate and coordinate solutions for effective use of the golden period of population and adapting to the aging of the population.Subsequently, Vietnam's population policy began to shift from focusing on family planning to all aspects of the population.
In 2006, Vietnam's fertility rate fell below 2.1 for the first time. After that, in addition to 2020 and 2021, it has been below 2.1.The Vietnamese government then formulated a population strategy that lasted until 2030, hoping to maintain the fertility rate at least 2.1.
The stress of the social security system of the withdrawal of pensions from the next year is huge
Another problem in Vietnam is that the social security system has failed to keep up with the pace of population aging.According to official estimates, by 2025, 55%of the population withdrawn from the labor age will be extracted, which is much higher than the current 22%.
Ruan Qinglong pointed out that with the increase of the elderly population, the number of people who withdraw pensions in the future will increase, and the social security system will bear tremendous pressure.
He warns that if Vietnam cannot make full use of the remaining population's golden period, economic growth will slow down. When it is officially entered the stage of population aging in 2036, it will face more problems.
"The indisputable fact is that the Vietnamese population is rapidly aging, but the country has not yet become rich. The key to responding to the aging of the population is to improve productivity. We must be rich before aging, so that we have resources to solve the future.Question. "
