The constitutional Democratic Party, which has only 148 seats, will take the lead in organizing the coalition government. Although it is frustrated than that, there are still 215 seats (the Democratic Party) Public (Ming Party) Alliance.
The new president of the Liberal Democratic Party, also the new Prime Minister Shi Po Mao, took office on October 1, and used privileges to announce the dissolution of the House of Representatives of the Congress on October 9th.The appointment of the people.
Shi Po climbed to the Prime Minister's throne for a week. Even if he even had a fragmented speech calculation before and after the campaign of the President of the Liberal Democratic Party, it was only a month of more than a month.Trial.Therefore, the so -called "asking politics to the people" can only be said that voters have made the performance of Abe's politics since 2012, including the performance of the Kishida regime, including its extended line, and the performance of the Liberal Democratic Party.The "policy passage" Shi Po is very clear. With the continued fermentation of the "black and gold politics" and the development of the new cabinet's difficult internal and external policies, the election situation can only be increasingly unfavorable to themselves.Rather than holding a election at that time, it is better to take advantage of the new regime just born, and there are "new expectations" (although the support rate of Shipu's new cabinet is not high at the beginning), the time when the opposition party is too late, a thunder is too late to hide his ears.The election may reduce the loss of the ruling party seat and push the responsibility of limited frustration to the former regime closely related to the relationship with "black gold politics".
"Party Religion" was broken by voters
Helplessly, this poor performance of seeking "party interest and party" and personal political and private interest was recognized by voters. The Liberal Democratic Party not only could not hold half of the 465 seats (233 seats), only 191 seats (the original seat was 247 seats.), Even the seats of the loyal partner Gongming Party (from the original 30 to 24 seats) for many years, less than 233 seats, only 215 seats.
At this point, Shi Po, who has always been proud of his talents and high self -esteem, has to admit that he is unfavorable and declare the failure of gambling, but resolutely expressed his willingness to abandon the cabinet.On October 28, major mainstream media in Japan were headlines on the front page, and reported the results of the election on the topic of "self -defeat from the public alliance".
On the contrary, the seats obtained by the main opposition party have increased significantly.The constitutional Democratic Party, which is the second largest party, increased from the original 98 seats to 148 seats. The Kuomintang Party increased from the original seven seats to 28 seats.Kento Kashi Kakada Kazakhstan, the Constitutional Democratic Party, claims that he is preparing to negotiate with other parties in the wild party and organize a joint government.However, the observers noticed that these two from the old Democratic Party, which were later renamed the DPP, and several combined opposition parties, rather than a set of governing policies that are different from the policy of inside and outside the Liberal Democratic Party.Tickets for those who are dissatisfied.In addition, it is unlikely that the "party interest and party" between the two major parties between the two major parties is difficult to reconcile. It is unlikely that the constitutional Democratic Party to set up a joint government in the short term.
The characteristics and phenomenon of "total conservative" politics
Of course, this phenomenon that does not focus on policy coordination, but is based on the phenomenon of "party interest and party" or private interest, is not the starting election.To be precise, this is a large reshuffle of Japanese politics in the 1990s. Japanese politics has transformed from the 1955 system of the 1955 system of "defending (defending) the Revolution (new) confrontation" to the two major conservative politics control politics.(Shou) The characteristics and phenomena since the system of talks (secret room negotiation) ".In other words, after that, especially after the death of the Socialist Party, which was regarded as "the greatest obstacle to the constitutional amendment", the Japanese political arena has entered the era of "total conservativeization" (also known as "general Liberal Democratization").
By borrowing Japanese media to ridicule the two major conservative political parties to dominate politics, the difference between the two is curry rice and the other is "rice + curry".The banner of each other is similar.As for the weak small parties or independent people in the political arena, many of them are seriously tracked, and many are different from the Liberal Democratic Party or the former Democratic Party.If these small and medium -sized parties or people are asked to join the joint government's camp, I am afraid it will be expensive.On the surface, they will put forward the policy that needs to be coordinated, but in the bones, there are many of them who are holding high prices.
From this perspective, only 148 constitutional Democratic Party will take the lead in organizing the coalition government. The difficulty is far more difficult than that, but there are still 215 seats (the Democratic Party) public (Ming party) alliance.EssenceIn view of the conservative color than the Liberal Democratic Party (38 seats) and the National Democratic Party (28 seats), they have threatened (at least the posture on the surface).The coalition government and try to strive for some small and medium -sized parties to "cooperate outside the cabinet" (that is, do not send members to participate in the government, but cooperate with the policies and fields formulated by the ruling party).
"Vulnerable ruling parties" like lean ice
Of course, such a disadvantaged ruling party alliance government will appear hands and feet when formulating internal and external policies. It depends on the faces of all parties everywhere. In addition, Shi Po is in a weak power in the Liberal Democratic Party, loves the public, and has a wonderful trick.In the future, I am afraid that I have to take a prudent attitude and lower the tone without any errors, otherwise there will be the possibility of being pulled down by people inside and outside the party at any time.As the new generation of representatives and "policy" of the "eagle in the eagle" in the Liberal Democratic Party, Shi Po faced the situation after the election.On the eve of the President of the Liberal Democratic Party more than a month ago, I did not know the height of the sky on the eve of the election of the President of the Democratic Party. The Asian version of NATO's conception was thrown out (with the pretext of the Chinese threat theory), and he was required to send troops to the island to establish a military alliance with the United States.Speaking, I believe in self -restraint and convergence in the future.But even so, how far the "Shipumaru" (ship number) that lacks Shi Po is broken and has not yet sailed is still unknown.
As for the mouth claiming that political reform is to be carried out, the largest constitutional Democratic Party of the opposition party must be "change in power", as mentioned earlier, the background color is the former Democratic Party.His New Party Kuoya Kamada was the last prime minister of the Democratic Party during his political period. It was also defeated to Shinzo Abe in 2012.From this perspective, people are not unfamiliar with the low -key Noda national view, security concept, and neighboring views.
It looks like "loach" is a big eagle
Remember that when the Prime Minister of Loach appeared at that time, the Japanese Conservative Forum applauded loudly.There are two points. One is to attach importance to the "son of self -defense officials", that is, a soldier family.When Noda was young, there was an experience of being humiliated because of a soldier's family (because it was a "good man's improper soldiers", the anti -war force swept Japan, and supporting the "peace constitution" was the era of the mainstream social trend of society).It's not war criminals. "The second is the "Panasonic Political and Economic Ben" (four -year system), which was founded from the financial community from the financial community to cultivate conservative politicians.His values are in the Liberal Democratic Party, Gao Miao, and the former Democratic Party leader, and the last party leader of the Democratic Progressive Party (both of which are also from Panasonic's political and economic school).Far.
Because of the "impureness" within the former DPP (referring to some members of the former members of the security policy, some members were not firm enough), in the 2017 election, the DPP "sold" to Tokyo Koto Koto Koto Lily.The party "in order to clear the party and promote the party's defeat and disintegrate in the election.The Constitutional Democratic Party and the Kuomintang Democratic Party are the products of the DPP reshuffle under the former original command stick.
How to get out of the dilemma and deadlock
由此可见，野田这回在大选前夕夺得立宪民主党党魁的宝座，固然有利于该党争夺自民党原有的议席，但这么一来，立宪民主党的保守色彩也将更为浓厚，并The need to weaken the needs and urgency of "regime change".Because the party's "curry flavor" is closer to the Liberal Democratic Party.
Not only that, the observer also noticed that after being elected Prime Minister, Noda was sent to the Self -Defense Forces after being elected as the Prime Minister.Speaking of "forgetting war must be dangerous".As for the relationship with neighboring China, the most eye -catching movement during the period of Noda was the "Shougang Islands" (known as the Diaoyu Islands and its affiliated islands) in 2012Japanese relations deteriorate further.From this perspective, even if it is at this moment, at the moment, the Noda Constitutional Democratic Party, which is ready to take over the Shishi regime, breaks through many difficulties and forms a minority party party alliance (in the actual possibility).Essence
From the perspective of it, whether it is Shi Po or the helm of Noda, Japan is not easy to get out of the deadlock of trapped in the world and abroad today.
The author is a Singaporean scholar, the mentor of the Peking University Journalism Research Association, Honorary Director of the International Communication Research Center of Xiamen University, and honorary professor at Longgu University in Japan
