Taiwan Lai Qingde took office for nearly five months. The cross -strait discussion broke through the fuzzy space of the "Cai Yingwen route", clearly promoted the "new country theory", and tried the bottom line of Beijing and Washington.Although he has slowed down in the Shuangli speech, trying to tear off the label of the "troublemaker", the analysis believes that "co -management Taiwan independence" will become an important issue in the lower phase of China and the United States.
Taiwan Lai Qingde, who claims to be "pragmatic Taiwan independence workers", said on October 5th that "the People's Republic of China is absolutely impossible to become the motherland of the people of the Republic of China" on October 5th.The ten speeches put forward more tough discussions.
But in the end, he did not have an exposition beyond expected except that he reiterated that "the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China did not belong to each other" and "the People's Republic of China had no right to represent Taiwan".
Carefully climbing Lai Qingde's discussions on the Cross -Strait since I was in office on May 20 can find that when he repeatedly stated the history of Taiwan, he deliberately cut with mainland China, and clearly defined the "Republic of China" to Taiwan and Golden Horse.Highlighting the differences between the two sides of the strait system, it has broken the fuzzy space of the "Cai Yingwen route" in the past eight years, and launched the "Lai Qingde route" with the characteristics of "one middle and one" characteristic.
When Tsai Ing -wen was in power, he advocated handling cross -strait relations on the regulations on the Constitution of the Republic of China and the Cross -Strait People's Relations, and did not deny the historical facts of cross -strait talks in 1992 and the common cognition of simultaneous existing differences.
Although she proposed the saying "Taiwan of the Republic of China" in the middle and late stages of governance, and emphasized that "adherence to the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China does not belong to each other", the positioning of cross -strait relations still has a certain vague space.
Looking back in the past eight years, the "Cai English route" has received general support from the United States.Many mainland scholars involved in Taiwan have also admitted that although Tsai Ing -wen's discussion is hidden in Taiwan independence, it is relatively stable and predictable.
From the inauguration to the "Motherland theory" Lai Qingde strengthens the history of the cross -strait
Lai Qingde held an international press conference during the early election of this year, and also emphasized that the "Cai Yingwen route" will be continued, maintaining the status quo, and "no need to announce independence separately."Analysis generally believes that Lai Qingde's statement at that time intended to show a stable cross -strait policy position to reduce the doubts of Taiwan's and the United States about his "Taiwan independence".
Although Lai Qingde continued to continue the statement of Cai Yingwen's inauguration, he deliberately mentioned the time when the Dutch East India company landed in Taiwan for 1624. It said that Taiwan "started from Tainan and opened the beginning of Taiwan's globalization" at that time. "It is considered a common historical statement with intention to cut with mainland China.
Zhu Fenglian, a spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council of China at the time, criticized at the time. This statement was "full of lies and deceptions, moved flowers and trees, distorted history, and fully exposed its essence of Taiwan independence."
At the double ten party on October 5, Lai Qingde further proposed: "The People's Republic of China is absolutely impossible to become the motherland of the people of the Republic of China. Instead, the Republic of China may be the motherland of the people over the age of 75 of the People's Republic of China."
He went on to say: "The Republic of China has taken root in Taiwan's golden horse for 75 years. We don't have to talk about this relationship."
By Thursday (October 10 )'s double ten celebration ceremony, in addition to continuing the "Republic of China" in Taiwan, Lai Qingde took root in Taiwan and did not belong to the People's Republic of China.On the land, the growth thrive, and the People's Republic of China has no right to represent Taiwan. "
Wang Xinxian, the acting director of the International Research Center of Taiwan Politburo, analyzed in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that if he systematically compares the discussion since Lai Qingde's inauguration, he can find that he positioned "1949" as a node for cross -strait historical separation.
He believes that Lai Qingde will explain to Taiwan's internal expression of "the page of the past history has turned over" and strengthened the right to discuss the voice in the "Republic of China".This is different from that when Tsai Ing -wen is in power, it will maintain cross -strait history and cultural links to a certain extent. Instead, it will make cross -strait relations discourse more clear and break the fuzzy space.
More opinions believe that for Beijing, there are many types of Taiwan independence, including historical Taiwan independence, cultural Taiwan independence, etc., and Lai Qingde is almost all available.
In addition, since Lai Qingde took office, the DPP government's attitude towards the people has also been more conservative. In late June, it was announced that the tourism warning of travel to Lu, Hong Kong and Macao was promoted to "orange". It is recommended that the public avoid unnecessary travel.
The Taiwan media also reported in September that in early September, several mainland Taiwan -related scholars' groups and principal groups were blocked; a couple of Chinese mainland couples involved in Taiwan and Hong Kong people on October 1, and they were also in Taiwan.Quickly deportation.
Mainland scholars: More dangerous than Tsai Ing -wen Lai Qingde's policy will repeat the contradictions on both sides of the strait
These tough policies have also aroused worry of the green camp pigeons.People who advocate exchanges with the mainland in the Democratic Progressive Party revealed to the Lianhe Morning Post that although Lai Qingde still emphasized intended to communicate with the land, these strong practices may only make the atmosphere worse.
In this regard, Li Zhenguang, the dean of the Taiwan Institute of Taiwan United University, pointed out in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that compared with Lai Qingde, Cai Yingwen's cross -strait policy is indeed relatively mild, and more of the "cultural Taiwan independence" and "flexible Taiwan independence" routeAlthough there is still a tendency to independence in Taiwan, "but Lai Qingde's position is more aggressive, and the awareness of division is more stubborn."
Li Zhenguang believes that this makes Lai Qingde more dangerous than Cai Yingwen, and his policy will further intensify contradictions on both sides of the strait.
Strengthen the threat of Mainland Martial Arts
In addition to cutting in history and culture, Lai Qingde has also strengthened discussing the threat of martial arts in the mainland in the past, trying to condense the consensus of Taiwan, and highlight the differences between the cross -strait system and strengthen the internationalization of Taiwan.
For example, when Lai Qingde hosted a centennial school celebration event in Kaohsiung on June 16, he emphasized that "fighting for the survival and development of the Republic of China, fighting for the safety and well -being of the people of Taiwan for the people of Taiwan."The challenge is that mainland China intends to "swallow Taiwan and eliminate the Republic of China", and refers to "only Taiwan has the Republic of China."
He further pointed out when he participated in the 823 artillery warfare mourning ceremony that Beijing would not win Taiwan, not Taiwan and which political party said, but for the more far -reaching goal, that is, in the "The Western Pacific, even in the world, changes international order based on rules. "
In addition, with the convening of the UN General Assembly in late September, the Democratic Progressive Party Legislative Yuan also focused on promoting the "United Nations 2758 resolutionThe resolution does not involve Taiwan; on the day of the debate of the General Debate of the United University, Lai Qingde also proposed the concept of "Democratic Taiwan and Authoritative China" at the annual summit of the non -profit organization of New York.
Lai Qingde's purpose of breaking Cai Yingwen's route, and people who are familiar with cross -strait affairs are in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that Lai Qingde is intended to break through the basis of the existing cross -strait status quo."Even after the U.S. election in the future, Washington and Beijing jointly put pressure on together, requiring the amendment of the route, at least starting from a new starting point, and compared with the past, there will be progress."
In this regard, Wang Xinxian inferenceed that before the results of the US election came out, in order to ensure the stable situation, China and the United States would not have a strong reaction for the time being.The bottom line.
The Bayeng Government said that Trump claims to pay the US protection fee for Lai Qingde
Lai Qingde's approach not only triggers Beijing's dissatisfaction, Washington also seems to have begun to disclose doubts about Lai Qingde.
The Executive Director of the Marshall Foundation (GMF) Indo -Pacific Project Executive Director Bonnie Glaser and the International Research Center (CSIS) expert Bonny Lin (also translated: Lin Yang)He has published joint articles in the Foreign Affairs journal, calling on the Bayeng government to admit that Lai Qingde's inauguration has deviated from the "Cai Yingwen route", that is, "walking too far".
Analysis: If Harris may not be able to support the military defensive Taiwan
This article suggested that the United States should encourage Lai Qingde while strengthening Taiwan's defense and toughness, and should also avoid any actions that may be used by Beijing to upgrade pressure.
The analysis article written by Ge Laiyi in September further mentioned that if the US Vice President Harris wins in the election, he may not agree with Biden's consistent position, stating that he dispatched the US military to defend Taiwan during the attack on Taiwan.On the contrary, she may choose to return to more traditional strategic vague policies and encourage American allies to contribute to strengthen deterrence.
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Harris accepted an interview with the Broadcasting Corporation (CBS) program in October, and also confirmed Ge Laiyi's speculation.
She did not explicitly answered the question of whether they would send troops to prevent Taiwan in the interview, only emphasizing that it would continue the "one -China policy", including maintaining Taiwan's ability to have self -defense, and taking measures to ensure that the Taiwan Strait is through.free.
After Lai Qingde's "the theory of the motherland", Daniel Kritenbrink, the assistant Secretary of State of East Asian affairs, was asked on Tuesday (October 8) when he was asked about the incident.You have to ask Taipei.
He subsequently reiterated that the US's "No. 1 China Policy" has not changed, opposing the status quo by any side of any side on both sides of the strait, and does not support Taiwan's independence.The fundamental interests of the United States are to maintain peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait.
On the eve of the Double Ten Festival in Taiwan, Reuters has quoted US officials that Taiwan has made a briefing of Lai Qingde's speech on diplomatic partners in advance, but it said that the content "completely depends on Taiwanese officials."
The Taiwanese government officials reported on the media on October 10 that they had a tacit understanding with international allies in terms of policy stance, and would not specifically target Double Ten drafts.
But this official also admitted that since Lai Qingde took office, when democratic state officials, officers from.Taiwan Strait Peace. "
Zhao Chunshan, an honorary professor at the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Relations at Tamkang University in Taiwan, analyzed the United Morning Post. The Democratic government must have doubts about Lai Qingde.The concern of the government.
He believes that before the U.S. election, Lai Qingde never wanted to be a troublemaker of trouble, so the Double Ten speech seemed to be flat and stable, which was also in line with the interests of the United States.
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From the above response, the Democratic Party, which is now governed, does have a certain visibility of Lai Qingde.However, the Republican camp, which tried to re -get back to the regime, has a clear gap in Taiwan's recent attitude towards Taiwan.
Former US President Trump accepted an exclusive interview with the US media in June, he was indifferent to the idea of protecting Taiwan's invasion of Beijing, and put forward the saying that "Taiwan should pay the United States protection fee".
Ge Laiyi's analysis in early September believes that assuming Trump is elected, it may be more openly urged to take more measures to enhance defense capabilities, and linked Taiwan's defense expenditure and policies with US military assistance.
It is worth noting that Kelly Craft, who was once the Ambassador of the Trump administration in the United Nations, emphasized in Taipei on September 12 that if Trump re -administered, Taiwan should do his best to himself.Responsibility has become the "Pacific Polish", including increasing national defense budgets, buying more strike weapons, and expanding nuclear power generation.
Mainland scholars: China and the United States may cooperate to curb Taiwan independence
Regarding the impact of how Beijing thinks of the US election on the situation on the Taiwan Strait, Li Zhenguang of Beijing United University said that whether it is the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, the Taiwan issue will become an important issue in Sino -US relations.
He believes that China and the United States have a lot of room for cooperation in curbing Lai Qingde's Taiwan independence behavior.Judging from the recent situation, the United States should have been dissatisfied with Lai Qingde's Taiwan independence behavior, which may be able to ease the situation to a certain extent.
Taiwan scholars: The DPP is expected to keep the trend
After this double ten speech, Beijing's possible response, Li Zhenguang pointed out that despite the continuous upgrading of Taiwan ’s Taiwan independence remarks, the mainland will still adhere to the modernization of China and maintain peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait.
But he emphasized that the mainland's advent of Taiwan independence will take a resolute response. "If Lai Qingde takes a key step on the road of division, the mainland will definitely be deterrent and counterattack."
Wang Xinxian of the Political University of Taiwan has studied and judged that the mainland's normal military pressure on Taiwan will still occur, but it should not rise to the level of military exercise after the inauguration of 520.
As for the future movement of the Lai Qingde government, Zhao Chunshan of Tamkang University in Taiwan believes that from his speeches, the DPP will take "defensive" next, because after all, it is a few governance.Before the US election, Taiwan did not want Taiwan to become variables, cross -strait officials have no faith, and tensions on both sides of the strait.
Zhao Chunshan studied and judged, although it can be seen from the speech of the double ten, Lai QingThe eagle sounds in the Guoan team are suppressed, but cross -strait relations will not improve because of this speech. Instead, they will start a "new cold war" without smoke, which will be "the unstable coexistence of two stable opponents."
