Source: Bloomberg
The analysis of Nomura Holdings shows that the overflowing effect of China's economy over Asian countries in the past few years has weakened; how to deploy some fiscal stimulus policies in Beijing is whether these countries can recover the exports of the world's second largest economy in the world.The key.
According to a report released on Friday, its research found that other Asian economies have minimized exports of China due to the latter infrastructure investment, and they are much greater due to their real estate construction and retail consumption.
Investors and analysts predict that the Chinese government will introduce new financial stimulus measures for up to 2 trillion yuan on weekends.China has announced a series of measures at the end of last month, including interest rate cuts and increased support for real estate and stock markets.But the sound of financial intervention is rising, and economists believe that it is the key to boosting confidence.
"If Beijing announces to accelerate the construction of infrastructure projects (such as railways, power grids), then the Asian region may benefit less," Womura economist wrote."But if you announce the financial stimulus of real estate (providing funds directly for pre -sale and delayed residential projects), to promote the rise in real estate investment, it may expand the recovery area of Asian exports and boost the price of commodities." Studies have shown that Australia is the Asian economy, which is the most affected by China's economic growth, followed by Singapore.Nomura said that in Asia, the Philippines, and India, the minimum affected.
"Australia and Thailand have a higher degree of correlation with the Chinese economic cycle," said Nomura economist -Australia's result is a bit unexpected, because Beijing has adopted punitive trade on Australia, and it was not canceled until recently.Essence
"Taiwan and South Korea have been decoupled with mainland China," Nomura said."And in all parts of Asia other than Hong Kong, the number of tourists from the mainland has declined."
