As the United States, as a leading country in contemporary world, if a woman is elected president, it is not worth a fuss, and it is even a bit late.
The US 2024 presidential election enters the final sprint stage. People from all walks of life come out, with high participation and unprecedented political mobilization.Public opinion surveys show that the election situation is still nervous, and more than 40 million voters of various states voted in advance (as of the time of the release of this article).On November 5th, the participation event will reach a rare climax.
What are all this?The author believes that the United States may soon be "changed to the dynasty."In the political context of the United States, the theory of changing the dynasty is not necessarily appropriate, but it is real.From the age of 1990s, we can see the ages of the past president of the United States, a glimpse of the clue of the trend.From Bush (born in 1924) in the early 1990s to Clinton (born in 1946), it made US politics 20 years younger; then to Obama (born in 1961), making US politics younger 15 years old.
After that, Trump (born in 1946) and the older Biden (born in 1942), who were older than him, were in power, and American politics began to show aging.
Now, Harris, born in 1964, challenged Trump. If she was elected, it would make US politics younger 20 years old.More importantly, Harris is a woman and minority, which means a new historical record.Such changes seem to be a bit shocking.
Some people may ask, is American society ready to accept a minority female president?Eight years ago Hillary's election did not succeed.The author believes that instead of "preparation or not", this problem is worse than the situation than others, and the situation is heroes.If Harris was elected, it may not be because she was particularly good, but because her opponent Trump had achieved her unable to achieve her.
Women in modern society are no longer news.From the election of the British Iron Lady Sachel (also proves that the United Kingdom is often the world), the leaders of the female girl have come out. The European Union, Germany, Italy, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Taiwan, etc. are all examples.As a contemporary world leader country, if a woman is elected president, it is not worth a fuss, and it is even a bit late.
The participation of this American election is unprecedentedly eye -opening.The Democratic Party has the same desire, from the 100 -year -old former President Carter, to the young people of all ethnic groups to actively assist in the election.In contrast, the Republican Party has a high -level level, and there are very few candidates for the Trump platform.Essence
Nevertheless, Trump still has the courage of lonely, and has recently risen in the momentum, so the election is in a state of stalemate.The public opinion test now seems to be in a state of "inaccurate measurement", but if you refer to the ratio of more than 40 million voters voting in advance, it can be found that about 42%of the Democratic Party registered voters, 35%of the Republican registered voters, and 23%of 23%For independent voters.
If there will be "stunning" at the last moment of this year's election, the author believes that it should be more related to Harris, and may release some fresh potential; Trump has been familiar with voters, so at the end of the last moment, he will emerge at the last moment.The probability of "new support votes" is not large.As for the source of stunning and potential, according to various analysis and judgment, it may mainly come from women, young voters, and even overseas American voters.
This round of elections in the United States may change the dynasty, and it is also manifested in the unprecedented participation of the elite class and the intellectual world. The representative position can be summarized as: this round of elections are not about the dispute between the left and the right, but the dispute about correct and fallacy.So everyone must stand up to stand out.Trump has some betrayal in this regard, and even Milly, the former chairman of his White House Chiefs, and co -chief of staff, have recently stood up and publicly accused Trump of fascization, which will threaten the foundation of American democracy.
Trump's appeal is mainly aimed at the middle and lower level voters in the township area. The most urgent hopes of these people is that the United States needs a strong person to stand up to effectively solve the difficult problems encountered by the country, such as illegal immigration Vietnam, societyExcessive liberalization, economic income and consumption imbalances, the deterioration of public security conditions in some communities, etc., do not care much about the character and values of candidates.In this regard, some radical measures proposed by Trump, as well as the strong execution of former presidents and entrepreneurs, have become attractive to relevant voters.
Recently, a leading figure in the American scientific and technological community has also interpreted the concerns of some conservative voters in the United States from another perspective.These groups believe that the world has developed too much in the past 20 years. Economic globalization, scientific and technological informatization and artificial intelligence, the re -distribution of wealth, the development of ethnic minorities, the opening of cultural concepts, etc.Voters who lived in the past are dazzling and difficult to adapt. They hope to slow down the changing rhythm and even fantasize to return to the old days.
The age evolution of the U.S. Presidential President also revealed this laws: in the later stages of Obama, some liberalization and economic empty tendencies appeared in the United States.Selected; Trump's conservative thinking and forces came to power for four years, and then encountered Biden's four -year balance.
At present, American society is coming to a key fork, that is, whether Trump is allowed to enter the palace to continue the return of conservative value and forces, or let Harris take a new chapter for the United States as a new generation of politicians?Among them, the major mystery lies in Trump, who was first elected as president in 2024?Can you still expect him to lead the United States to return to traditional value and practice?If Harris is elected, will she take the political extreme route or will move closer to the road that is more balanced in the middle, so as to have the opportunity to re -unite American society together?
The author believes that after about 16 years in about 16 years in the era of Obama -Trump -Bayeng, the development of U.S. politics and society on future development should have reached a relatively more mature and stable stage.At this stage, Harris is likely to be steadily advanced. Compared with Trump's return to the pot, it is likely to forcibly withdraw. It should be a more acceptable and constructive choice for the United States.Moreover, practice has proved that politicians who have been transferred from businessmen often focus on benefits and sacrifice the soul of value.
In the rapid evolution of modern society, some voters in the United States are expected to have strong people like Trump to come up and control the situation. This mentality is outdated, illusory, and sad.Darwin, the origin of the species, has long said that it is not the survival of the strong in this world, but the survival of the fittest.For example, dinosaurs used to be huge and fierce on the earth, and did they all become ancient fossils?The best metaphor for the survival of the fittest is that people cannot stop on bicycles. It is even more dangerous to move backwards. It is necessary to keep moving forward and solve the relevant problems in advance. It is the correct and wise choice.Of course, the speed, strength, slope, curvedness, etc. can be adjusted and optimized; but the overall principle must be brave forward, because only advance can have the future.
The author is an expert in international cultural strategy research and consultation in the United States
