Source: Bloomberg
Author: Alastair Gale, YOSHIAKI Nohara
When preparing for Donald Trump's back to the White House and the pressure brought to key allies around the world, Japan may enter a new stage of policy stagnation in Japan.
In the House of Representatives held on Sunday, Japan has not obviously won the party since the 1990s, and it is almost certain that the fourth largest economy in the world will usher in a government with weak governance.For the time being, the Japanese government will be led by Prime Minister Shi Po Mao. He hinted on Monday that there was no resignation plan, although the Liberal Democratic Party failed to win the status of most partys for the first time since 2009.
An unstable government will cause doubt whether Japan can continue to develop greater leadership in global affairs.This may also slow down Japan's efforts to return to normal currency and fiscal policies.
Shortly after winning the party's first campaign last month, Shi Po Mao decided to bet in advance.However, after serving as the Prime Minister on October 1, the severe challenge he faces is to avoid becoming the shortest term of war in Japan.The Prime Minister needs to obtain 233 seats in the House of Representatives in order to keep his position. Previously, the governing alliance he led by him only won 215 seats.According to local media reports, the decision to vote for the Prime Minister will be held as early as November 11.
Additional votes may come from smaller opposition parties, such as conservative National Democratic Party. The party has sufficient seats to allow Shi Po Mao to continue governing.
The National Democratic Party represented Yumu Hiroshi Hiroshi Ichiro on Tuesday that he does not seek to join the alliance led by the Liberal Democratic Party, but he is willing to consider cooperation on some issues, such as expanding non -taxable income allowances. The change of this rule will help low incomeGroups, but reduce taxes.He also said that he would vote to himself when he voted for the Prime Minister of Congress.
It is necessary to appease the prospects of the alliance allies that Japan will continue to rely on expenditure measures and additional budgets.Shi Po Mao has promised to launch a larger economic stimulus plan for last year than the former Prime Minister Kishita Tianshi, which will increase Japan's expenditure.
If Shi Po Mao is controlled by the National Democratic Party and other political parties, it provides more assistance to families and small enterprises in difficulties, then the Bank of Japan may find that the difficulty of promoting interest rate hikes will increase.The initial response of the market was that the Japanese yen was soft, and then the stock market rose, although Shi Po Mao's ability to establish a stable government was uncertain.
Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's administration time is highly overlapped during the period of former US President Trump. If Trump returns to the White House in the US election next week, then compared with Abe, the next leader in JapanWithout control over Congress, it is impossible to help them respond to any requirements.
In addition to Trump claimed to levy a 10%tariff on goods in all countries and prevent Japanese iron -making from acquiring American Iron and Steel Corporation, he has repeatedly called on Japan to pay more fees for the US garrison.The cost of cost is planned to be renewed in 2026.
Although the Japanese Prime Minister has a migrant lamp -like change in the 1990s and the early 2000s, Abe served as the Prime Minister from 2012 to 2020, marking that Japan has changed to a more stable government and the self -confidence performance on the international stage.Former Prime Minister Kishida Yoshio also continued this trend.
This stable political period especially helped Abe's establishment of the personal relationship with Trump. The two met dozens of times and sometimes played golf together.Even now, Trump often talks about his friendship with Shinzo Abe, but he still vowed to continue to put pressure on Japan on trade issues.Abe was assassinated and died in 2022.
Tobias Harris, the founder of
JAPAN ForeSight LLC, wrote in a report to customers that it may be difficult to expect Shi Po Mao or his successor to conduct in -depth personal diplomatic exchanges with the next US president, or China or South Korea.
However, the United States and Japan relations are unlikely to have a major change.All mainstream parties in Japan support the relationship between Tokyo and Washington.Like Shi Panmao, some people want to evaluate some details of the alliance agreement to ensure that the agreement is fair to both parties.
