In the past few months, the political development of Malaysia has a confused feeling.This may have to start with several unexpected results from several state seats.In the Penang State election last year, the opposition National Alliance swept more than a quarter of the seats. It was impressive, and it also reflected the so -called green tide with religious conservatives.It has even been extended to the state of the state that is already highly urbanized and highly industrial like Penang (Selangor), which has made these national state constituencies focusing on Malay voters in danger.
The Sungai Armor, which was re -elected in early July, was won by the Islamic Party of the National League in Penang State in Penang last year.All sectors believe that the Pakatan Harapan who has the advantage of governing at the state and the federal level, the candidate of the fair party may have the opportunity to recapture the state seat.The fact is surprising, because the Iraqi Party wins in a larger gap with a larger gap.Shuangxi Batong Prefecture is adjacent to the Geedon State ruled by the Iraqi Party. In recent years, the green tide forces have gradually eaten from Gee Deda to the south and westward., Falling to the National Alliance (especially the Iraqi Party).In the last Malaysia election, Anwar's daughter, Nu Lulu, could not hold his father's Congress of Parliament for many years. It can be seen that the green tide forces were difficult to stop in the majority of Malaysian voters.
But after the selection of Kenji Kitari State in Kyan Dan, it produced an unexpected result.Jirandan has been the Iraqi Party Camp for many years and has absolute political advantages. For example, in the Danzhou Parliament before the Election Gili, the Iraqi Party and the National Alliance accounted for 43 seats in 45 seats.But Kenjili is a different number, and it belongs to the meeting of the National Congress.It ’s been a pocket of the UMNO veteran Dongglasari (Gusuri) for many years. As a local parliament more than half a century, he has failed to shake him no matter how powerful the Iranian party is in Ji Langdan.In the local area, UMNO can be said to have supported his blessing, so that he can always keep Nengjili and become one of the few seats left by Umno in Jilandan.
However, in the Malaysian election of the previous year, the green tide forces could not be blocked.In the selection of Grand Danzhou last year, Kerry was also taken away by the Iraqi Party, which made Danzhou's UMNO frustration.Therefore, in Nengjili, people generally believe that the Iraqi Party can not only hold it, but even add most votes, but the result is that Umno successfully recaptes Kerry with a good majority of votes.Icing on the cake.This should be attributed to the auxiliary election of the UMNO and the friendly party who worked hard to go up the mountain during the re -election. Even the indigenous voters did not let go, and Fang was able to reverse the disadvantage.
Look at the recent election of the state seats in Mada, Johor.This has always been a strong area of UMNO, and has won the overwhelming majority of votes for many times, so UMNO has no suspense again.But there are two variables worth noting this time.One is the determination of the green tide to expand in Johor.In fact, there are significant political forces in the northeast of Johor and the east coast. In fact, if you can capture the east of the central part of the Malaysia, it symbolizes the green tide forces to insert flags in the wider area of Johor.Coupled with the chairman of the National Alliance and former Prime Minister Muyudin, it also comes from Johor, so for the national alliance, it is necessary to win.If you win the Maede, the status of Muyudin himself and the local group he led in the national alliance will be even more consolidated.
Second, the voters of Maeda are nearly half of the non -Malays. In their opinion, many policy initiatives suddenly emerged recently.Propaganda items, non -selling restaurants must apply for halal certification, etc. The Federal Unity government is half -pushing and at least acquiescence.There are also the head of the UMNO youth regiment constantly issuing some racism clamor.Therefore, the non -Malays have brewed a voice of "lesson" and even the entire unity government, so that they would lose them in Ma Ge to see if they would change the past.
However, no matter how loud this voices are, no matter how strong Mu Yuding wants to win, even if the voting rate is low, Ma, even if the voting rate is low, still uses multiple times more votes to use the UMNO candidate Sai Fuxing and Fu Xing highlight the place high.Send to the Johor Parliament.This is mainly due to two factors.One is that the division of labor between UMNO and the Pakatania Party seems to have worked, especially the high -level preaching delegation of the Democratic Action Party, which is very helpful for the non -Malays' doubts.The second is the internal fighting of the National Alliance, because the Iraqi Party of the Tuling Party has long been jealous of the leading power of the National Alliance.It's not so powerful.
Is the "Green Tide Great" real "?
The results of these re -elections are dazzling. Whether the "green tide is getting bigger and bigger" is basically basically basically basically. It seems that the Iraqi Party was drawn from the bottom of Kerry.I think that in this political mist, some points can actually be summarized.
One of them, the green tide forces still cannot underestimate, especially in Malay voters.This is not only displayed on the votes, but also extended from the international situation.Especially in the past year, Israel has a conflict with Hamas, and Muslims all over the world have supported or at least sympathizing with Palestine. In fact, this has caused another so -called political Islamic movement internationally.The country with a population is not spared.Therefore, Anwar, who has a keen sense of politics, has been using the Palestinian fighter in recent months. The main political purpose is to win the support of these sympathy voters.Secondly, this green tide does not seem to be unbreakable. If the political parties of the government can set aside the unsightly cooperation and run the grassroots level and do lectures, there will still be a rotary in politics.But this is a hard work. Whether the people who have supported the prevails can continue to do so. It remains to be observed.
The author is a senior researcher at the Singapore International Affairs Society (Research Institute)
Chief Counselor of the Malaysian Pacific Research Center
