Since the end of 2023, Myanmar has fallen into deep chaos. The armed forces of various ethnic minorities and local armed forces (civil parts), between civilians and military government, and the democratic forces of the Military Government and the Burmese people have continued conflicts.The military government has repeatedly defeated, making the prospects of Myanmar's political situation more confusing.

The big chaos is thinking.Does this indicate that Myanmar has reached the eve of the major changes?

Since the military takes over the regime in 2021, it has not only subverted the difficult process of democracy, but also caused national governance to be disorderly and crisis.

First of all, the gray economy is popular.Local separation agents colluded with the military heads, and once made Myanmar the international electrical industry cluster and international criminal den.China, Malaysia, the Philippines and other countries have been harmed.Political figures in Malaysia pointed out that at least tens of thousands of Malaysian victims were involved in it.

Secondly, according to the UN Drug and Crimes Office, the Office of the Office of Drugs and Crime reported in December 2023 that Myanmar regained the list of global drug sources, with an opium planting area of ​​more than 47,000 hectares, far exceeding Afghanistan.

Third, armed forces have been separated from the military government.The domestic armed organizations all moved and scrambled to expand the territory. It was no exception to return to the government, such as Miaowala's Suchu Ministry.In the active Burmese army, many of them went away from the military government.

Fourth, the Burmese democratic forces launched an armed struggle.The Democratic foundation of the Burmese, headed by the People's League, continued to propose to promote the peace process, established the army, and launched a revolution against the military government.

Obviously, this situation brings serious impact on the military government's governing ability and legality, and also brings more uncertainty to Myanmar's land security, international reputation, political situation, and even regional security and stability.

Over time, the contradictions in Myanmar have become sharp and sharp.The intricate situation intensified.At the political level, democratic forces armed and fiercely fierce with the military government.Conflicts between civilians and military government.Independence or autonomy of independence or autonomy has appeared in multiple ethnic areas.The folk protests are targeted at this one after another.

At the same time, according to the disclosure of the national interests, India and the West support some armed for armed for provoking, division, and taking the opportunity to play ground game."Myanmar's internal contradictions are intertwined with the contradictions between the great powers," said Professor of Yangon University.

At the economic and social level, the economic recession has led to an increase in unemployment rates and poverty, and social dissatisfaction has risen.The collapse of the education and health system has made the people feel hopeless in the future.In addition, due to the influence of information wars, fake news floods, information between different ethnic groups is asymmetric, deepening misunderstandings, and social division.

In terms of international relations.Myanmar is increasingly isolated from the international community. The relationship with neighboring countries has become cold due to refugee waves, cross -border crimes, suspicion prevention, and even ignoring the proposal of Asia's detailed coordination.

Myanmar chaos has a profound impact on Sino -Myanmar relations, but also has a significant restriction on the overall development of Southeast Asia.After all, the most important thing for national development is stability.In the Belt and Road Initiative, Myanmar is located at the gate of China and the Southwest of the Central South Peninsula. It is located from China to Malaysia, Singapore, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka.In other words, it has the geographical conditions and international opportunities of becoming the Belt and Road transportation hub, and has the role prospects of prosperous bridges in Southeast Asia and South Asia.

However, once turbulence, it has become a strong constraint and affects far -reaching.The current negative impact of Myanmar on the surrounding areas is much greater than the front.It not only loses international development opportunities, but also threatens the safety of neighboring countries. At the same time, it has dragged down the process of economic integration of China -Asia's Simpan, restricting the overall advantages of Asianan.For example, the "China -Myanmar -Maxin" Pan -Asian Railway is put on hold, the status of the "Asian Simpan Center" is slow and so on.

With the opening of the "Chinese Lao Laota Thai New" railway, Myanmar is bound to further lag behind.Its malignant cyclic chaos is inevitably reaction to neighboring countries and society.

Where is the way to crack the dilemma?

How to make the international influence of Myanmar become positive and geographical location?Obviously, Myanmar must work together with the international community.However, for the domestic conflict of Myanmar, China and the Asianan countries may only play the role of persuasion and talk, and they are not happy to see Myanmar splitting or anarchy.

Myanmar's key to getting out of the current chaos is to build a tolerance political dialogue platform and promote true national reconciliation.The essence of reconciliation is the adjustment of interests."This is easy to do!" Said Lian H. Shakong, director of the Myanmar National Research Center."The military has created a gap that the hopes of‘ Myanmar ’s political society’ s future development ”. It is difficult to establish mutual trust between each other in the short -term.

Myanmar objectively exists in a consensus.That is, no matter how many differences are, all parties have the vision of establishing a peaceful, fair, stable, and safe country.This is the basis for Asianan and China to persuade and talk about Myanmar.

The Burmese military has always emphasized its scientificity to lead the "seven steps" reform.This Bingn said that it is a path of thinking to solve the people's survival as a trail. It is also the essence of the development of political science.Li Guangyao, the founding of Singapore, has a brilliant summary: a good government should not only adhere to and maintain social standards, but also propose standards. In the end, it must be built in the economic field, and more people must be shared by the people.

This means that by promoting the equality and sharing of the prosperity of everyone in all ethnic groups, it is possible to gradually realize the ideal situation of national peaceful development.That is, Myanmar needs a long period of economic take -off to allow all ethnic groups and classes to benefit to support the points of interest and system supporting facilities.Singapore has developed from the Third World to the first world and is worth learning from.

In short, Myanmar must resolve the crisis and the turbulence invisible, I am afraid that we must first establish a democratic unity government -although this is a problem -then from the perspective of development of political science, with the help of surrounding development trends and the willingness to assist, the view of the overall situation of great wisdomTo coordinate the nation -state, or to end its dilemma of the Civil War.After more than 60 years, the Burmese elite should also give up the fantasy of assimilation ethnic minorities ...

The author is a scholar of Guizhou University