"China's new industrial policy can help it reduce its military power gap with the United States."
The senior research analyst of the Carnegie China Research Center, Natanil Sher, USA, on April 10, in China on the U.S. National Interest Double -month website, China is strengthening its national defense industry.He believes that China's economic transformation helps to improve its strategic ability.The full text is as follows:
From the perspective of some American observer, Beijing is accelerating a lot of investment in high -tech manufacturing.The foundation of the defense industry continues to expand.In their opinion, China's new industrial policies can help them reduce their military power gaps with the United States.
As the Chinese government puts the real estate industry in the secondary position, it is increasing investment in technology and defense.In 2023, real estate investment fell by 9.6%, while high -tech manufacturing investment increased by 9.9%.The weakness of the real estate industry is being released for resources that can be used in the military and civilian dual -use industries, including land, labor, capital and intermediate investment.The growth of aviation, electronics and communication equipment is particularly strong.According to government plans, the proportion of the added value of strategic emerging industries by 2025 will increase from 13%to 17%from 13%.
In January this year, the Pentagon of the United States released its first national defense industry strategy.The report pointed out that China ’s production capacity in the fields of shipbuilding, key minerals and microelectronics is not only“ far exceeding the United States ”, but also“ the total production capacity of our main European and Asian allies ”.Another report issued by the US Strategy and International Issues Research Center said that the Chinese People's Liberation Army "obtained the speed of high -end weapon systems and equipment is five or six times that of the United States."Once a long -term conflict occurs, the United States may not be able to catch up with the speed and scale of Chinese weapons procurement.
Therefore, on the basis of nominal output, compare the economy of the United States and China. There are more covered things that are revealed: the composition of the economy is also important.According to the typical "to be a cannon or butter" model, a economy of a fixed capacity of production capacity is facing a trade -off between production commercial products and production military products.
Historically, the dominant industrial foundation in the United States enables it to play a key role in the war.During the Second World War, the United States provided two -thirds of the Allied War materials: 86,000 tanks, 286,000 aircraft, 2.5 million trucks, 434 million tons of steel and 41 billion bullets.Today, the United States is unsuitable for a large -scale war that the United States is dominated by the consumption and service industry.
In contrast, China's industrial capacity utilization rate is lower than the potential level, and it currently accounts for 31%of the global manufacturing industry.Continue investment in advanced manufacturing will only further improve China's strategic capabilities.
As the Chinese government shifts investment from the real estate industry to other industries, it aims at the "core technology" that can enhance national security.The increase in scientific and technological expenditures in China's fiscal budget in 2024, which is one of the highest increase among all expenditure categories. Others include energy and food reserves and national defense.Priority areas include artificial intelligence, quantum computing, high -end chips, biomedicine, new materials and aerospace.
China's policy of focusing on the defense industry is not new.The current approach can be traced back to the "two bombs and one star" project in the Mao Zedong era. As a result, China has successfully developed the first domestic artificial satellite and the first atomic bomb and the first hydrogen bomb.To this day, China still refers to the "magic weapon" of "concentrating strength to do major events".American scholar Zhang Daming said that China is a "technical security country."
Of course, China's defense foundation is not without challenges.The army continues to rely on certain imported components, such as aviation electronic equipment, nuclear submarine engines and advanced chips.China also lacks modern experience that puts its huge industrial foundation in the background of wartime.
However, in the final analysis, the efficiency of China's industrial policy is not so important, and more importantly, China ’s ability to deploy production capacity in large scale.The Chinese government's investment will still expand China's defense industry capacity.(Compilation/Madan)
