The dilemma of losing home has long received social attention, but the scale of this group has always lacked reliable data.
The latest issue of the Population and Economic Magazine published an article entitled by the total number of children of China ’s only child and the trend of changing trends.Researcher Wang Guangzhou has made the latest calculation of the scale of this group, and predicts future scale changes.
Studies have shown that the size of "Zeng Sheng Children Without Children" women at the age of 50 and above is about 2.888 million, which is much higher than the previous estimates of some scholars, and with the decline in fertility and delay of fertility, women in the future womenThe risk of death of the only child will increase, and the rapid growth trend of the mother of the only child of death will remain stable.
"Zeng Sheng Children No Children" is a project in the census.In order to better reflect real problems and provide policy support, this study adopts a relatively broad definition. Women who have ordered the "Zeng Children Without Children" who have already exited the childbearing age are deemed to be the only mother of the child.This definition contains all women who have many children but have no children at present, so they may be overestimated compared to strict definitions.根据王广州的研究，使用“曾生子女现无子女”这一定义替代严格的“曾生一孩现无子女”定义，会使规模估算值高出约30%，不过随着时间推移，两The gap will gradually narrow.
In view of the actual implementation of family planning policies and restrictions on data collection, the women's group cannot be accurately estimated based on the scale of women who "conform to family planning policies and do not currently have children".Therefore, this article studies a more tolerant caliber and regards all women who are no children over 49 years old as potentially dead children's mother, which helps to grasp the full picture of the problem so as to solve the elderly care facing the group of this group.Provide more comprehensive data support and corresponding policy formulation basis for issues.
This study is based on the census data of previous population. Through the recursive method, it is estimated that the scale of the mother of the only child of the age of 50 and above in 2020 will build its complete development process.Based on the "Qi Pu" data summary and the calculation of the previous census data, the size of the mother -in -law mother of the only child in 2020 and above was about 2.888 million, which was higher than that of most scholars.Judgment of 10,000 people.
For this rapid growth trend, the author analysis pointed out that if the age of women who withdrawn from the fertility queue when the family planning policy of 1982 was used as the basic national policy was the upper limit of the mother queue of the only child of death, the death of the only child of the child in 1990 refers toIt is a woman 50-57 years old "Zeng Sheng Children No Children".In the early days of the childbirth policy, the main cause of the family planning policy as the main reason was generated by the mother group of the only child of the only child.With the comprehensive implementation of the only child fertility policy, new queues have continued to join the group, and the scale of the mother of the only child of death has gradually expanded.
By 2010, the mother of the only child of death refers to women 50-77 years old "Zeng Sheng Children No Children". According to the data of the census from 1990-2010, the size of the mother of the only child of death reached 42 million, accounted forThe proportion of the total number of women in the queue also reached 0.26%.In 2020, the mother of the only child of death included women 50-87 years old, "Zeng Sheng Children No Children", and the scale was further increased.According to the data of the census from 1990 to 2020, the scale of the mother of the only child of death was approximately 2.888 million, accounting for a further increase of the total number of women in the corresponding queue to 1.19%.Among them, the size of women who entered the state of death in 2010-2020 are large, which is the main reason for the significant increase in the size of the mother of the only child in 2020.
Specifically, in 2020, the only child of the only child in the age of 50-59 reached 1.919 million, accounting for 1.73%of the corresponding queue women, and the size of the mother of the only child 60-64 years old reached 6.26 million, occupying the corresponding queue, occupying the corresponding queueThe proportion of women's scale is 1.71%, and the size of the mother of the only child of the 65-74-year-old child is about 253,000, accounting for 0.40%of the number of women in the corresponding queue.The proportion of queue women is 0.28%.
It is worth noting that the author emphasized that although the "Qi Pu" data may overestimate the currently dead child's mother, it also shows to a certain extent that the risk of rapid growth in the size of the mother of the only child in the future.Compared with the results of the "Liu Pu", the size of women who entered the state of death in 2010-2020 as high as 1.919 million, accounting for 66.4%of the size of the only child of death.These new women who have entered the group of death -only children are relatively concentrated in about 2000. At this time, the impact of family planning policy on fertility still exists, and it is during the transition period of policy low fertility and endogenous low fertility.
But with endogenous low fertility, it has gradually become dominant, the willingness to fertility continues to decline, further delay the age of fertility, reduces the level of fertility and reduces the number of fertility.The possibility of regeneration has also decreased, and the risk of "losing independence" has increased.In other words, the size of the only child of the dead child released is still the result of policy low fertility. With the enhancement of endogenous low fertility, the scale of the mother of the only child of death may increase rapidly.
The author reminds that with the decline in fertility, the scale of women who only have a child will gradually increase, which will inevitably increase the risk of death of women's overall children as a whole.In the future, the size of the mother of the only child of death may expand at a faster growth rate year by year.
In order to effectively respond to this social issue, Liu Xuyang and Wang Guangzhou suggested in the text that the primary task is to improve the level of fertility.In view of the large -scale mother -in -law group formed by history, increasing the number of children with fertility is the most direct prevention measures. The policy level should continue to focus on reducing fertility costs, covering multiple dimensions such as economy, time, and opportunities.The childcare service system, ensuring that women's ability to return to the workplace smoothly after childbirth, etc., can solve the low fertility problems of internal nature.
Secondly, it is urgent to improve and improve the support system for the family of the only child of death.The family support system for family planning special difficulties launched in 2007 has begun to achieve results, but in the face of the mother group of the only child of death that may expand rapidly in the future, policy reform must keep pace with the times, expand the coverage of assistance, ensure that the only child certificate is not received in time,The mother who still loses the only child can also get the corresponding support.In addition, it is necessary to enrich the connotation of the policy. It is necessary to strengthen the psychological counseling of family psychological counseling of the only child of death, but also establish a comprehensive pension insurance mechanism to resist the risk of pension brought by aging.
Finally, the author emphasizes the importance of building cross -department collaboration and overall plans.In the face of the trend of the scale of children's groups in the future, the scale of the size of the children's group may grow sharply, the power of a single department is not enough to meet the needs.Provide services with targeted and personalized solutions, and establish a long -term response mechanism to respond to the problem of only children of death.
Interface News Reporter | Zhao Meng
Interface News Editor | Liu Haichuan
