Source: Bloomberg
Author: Alice Gledhill
A survey by Goldman Sachs Group on customers found that they have regarded geopolitics as the biggest risk facing the market and global economy this year, and inflation is no longer a major threat to it.
About 54%of the responders are the number one risk regarding the politics of the ground.The survey is part of the Goldman Sachs Annual Global Strategic Conference held in London this month.The US election will be second in the United States election on November 5, with a proportion of 17%.
This result highlights a major change in the global market emotions.In recent years, inflation has been greatly affected by the target level of the central bank.Although the recovery is still one of the threats, Goldman Sachs's investigation shows that investors are becoming more and more worried that when the tensions of mainland China and Taiwan have intensified, if the war in Europe and the Middle East spreads how they should lay out.
"Geographical and political events are the main risks facing investment portfolios, but it is also difficult to lay out for them." Guillaume Jaisson and Peter Oppenheimer wrote in the research report released on Tuesday, "Timetable and market impact are often difficultForecast. "
They pointed out that in the long -term geopolitics uncertainty, the allocation of commodities, especially oil and gold, and the configuration of Swiss francs in currencies has always been "reliable diversified tools."The analysis of Goldman Sachs shows that Swiss francs are usually more able to hedge such risks than the yen, because the latter is often more sensitive to interest rate trend.
Investors are also preparing for Donald Trump's return.This week, he won at the Evanian Republican Party Meeting Conference, and went further before winning the nomination of presidential candidates in the party.If Trump is re -elected as the President of the United States, it may lead to a sharp policy reversal in 2025, including increasing tariffs on imported goods and may withdraw from NATO.
