Internally, facing the big situation of Chaoto, it is necessary to face the pressure from the mainland. It can be described as internal and foreign difficulties.Therefore, Taiwan under the rule of Lai Qingde is more likely to continue air rotation and internal consumption, which is sad.
Lai Qingde's vote rate is 40.05%, Hou Youyi has 33.49%, Ke Wenzhe is 26.46%, and Taiwan elections have settled.At the same time, the Legislative Yuan (parliament) election, the Kuomintang has 52 seats, 51 DPP, eight seats, and two other seats.
Although the self -proclaimed pragmatic Taiwan independence worker Lai Qingde won, the voting rate was 17 percentage points less than the previous votes in 2020.The DPP's Legislative Yuan also dropped from 61 seats to 51 seats in the previous session.The Kuomintang has added 14 seats this time.The Taiwan Legislative Yuan has a total of 113 seats, and the Democratic Progressive Party has only half a time, so it must face the situation of the Dae -wanda.
The voting rate of this election is 71.86%, which is not much different from the 74.90%of the Presidential election in 2020, but obviously there are some young votes.Judging from the voting rate, the blue -green iron plate supporters have not changed much.It is generally believed that Ke Wenzhe has attracted quite a lot of young votes, which may be considered as the loss of people's livelihood issues such as inflation and employment, which leads to the loss of youth votes of the DPP.Many young people are also tired of blue -green fighting for many years.The emergence of the people's party is a bit like the third largest party in the UK.
Compared with the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party, the foundation and resources of the people's party are relatively weak. This is also the same as the Liberal Democratic Party.Before the election of the people and the people, they wanted to cooperate before the election. As a result, because the positive and deputy was unable to talk about it, they broke in public.This time, the number of votes of Hou Youyi and Ke Wenzhe added more than 60 %, which was originally enough to get off Lai Qingde.Of course, it is unknown whether there will be such a voting rate in the blue and white alliance.
The US player will not step on the red line
As far as it is concerned, Taiwanese voters have further split from the two major sectors to three pieces of blue, green and white.If the supporters of Baiying are like supporters of the blue -green sector, they will eventually become relatively solidified, and about various local forces, then Taiwanese society and public opinion will become more different and tear.Next, the Green Camp cannot be ruled out to try to win or buy some Baiying war generals.Therefore, whether there will be any changes, it is worthy of attention.
But the reason why elections in Taiwan are concerned is that it is related to the development of the Taiwan Strait.The Taiwan Strait issue is said to be a game between the United States and China.Although a person who has been elected by a self -defeated Taiwan independence worker as the president and continuing the DPP's administration for eight years, the road of Taiwan independence must be difficult to do.Although the United States will continue to play Taiwanese cards, it will never step on China's red line.
Of course, the DPP continues to govern by the United States. This is equivalent to saying that Taiwan's chess piece will continue to stay in its control.The President of the Democratic Progressive Party, which is obviously weakened, needs to be old and beautiful; from the perspective of the White House, it is also easier to linger, which is conducive to continuing the strategic goal of "maintaining the status quo" that the United States wants.
If the Taiwan Strait can always maintain the so -called status quo -unique and unique, each is politically, the United States will have room for political control.US military fire merchants can also take the opportunity to sell more military fire to Taiwan.However, the White House will not condone Taiwan independence at this moment, not to mention that the US election is imminent, and the Bayeng government does not want the Taiwan Strait to upgrade.Therefore, before the election, the White House warned that no country must interfere with the presidential election of Taiwan, and immediately stated that it would not support Taiwan independence after the election.
The United States hopes to control Taiwan for a long time to deal with China, but how long can China tolerate it is unknown.In the next four years, the mainland may see the slight convergence of Taiwan independence forces, because Lai Qingde is actually a minority president, and only 40 % of the voters are supported, which can not be said to represent mainstream public opinion.If he cannot do anything during his term, the next election may be abandoned.Unless you can acknowledge the 1992 consensus, it is difficult for Lai Qingde to restart the dialogue channel with the mainland, and may also face various restraint measures from the other side.In this case, it will become more difficult to revive the Taiwan economy.In the face of the big dilemma of the small field, it is necessary to face the pressure from the mainland. It can be described as internal and foreign difficulties.Therefore, Taiwan under the rule of Lai Qingde is more likely to continue air rotation and internal consumption, which is sad.
Is there no other way out?Looking back at the past, history has actually given Taiwan a good time to get rid of the predicament, but unfortunately missed.When Jiang Jingguo was still in power, the mainland appeared on the reform and opening up promoted by Deng Xiaoping.Deng Xiaoping is a very flexible and visible leader. He put forward the idea of one country, two systems, and opened a door for the peace and unity of cross -strait sides.Unfortunately, Jiang Jingguo, who was in charge at the time, hesitated, and did not dare to take a brave step based on the righteousness of the nation.At the same time, there is also another favorable factor of peace and unity on both sides of the strait, which is the great strategy of the United States and the Soviet Union.
Taiwan independence capital has shrunk
Friends who know the secrets are deeply regrettable, because it is a chance.Imagine that the economy of Taiwan was booming at that time, while the mainland was treated by hundreds of wastes. In fact, the Kuomintang had good negotiating chips and bargaining in Beijing.Under the framework of one country and two systems, Taiwan can maintain its own army and political system and enjoy highly autonomy. These may be accepted by Deng Xiaoping.
The opportunity is fleeting.In 1988, Jiang Jingguo died during his tenure and was succeeded by Vice President Lee Teng -hui.Unfortunately, this is a blue -skinned character.Singapore's political leaders may not have fully recognized this person at that time. Therefore, although it was greatly goodwill to promote the talks of Wang (Daohan) in 1993, he did not obtain specific results after all.Soon he brought Taiwan to a no return path.Of course, some people also held him as the father of democracy in Taiwan.It was a crime of Qianqiu Gong, and Ren Ren commented.
What are the results of cross -strait relations in the end, no one dares to make a conclusion, but from the perspective of a Singaporean, unless there is a shocking change in the mainland, the civil unrest and the collapse of the Communist Party will definitely be hopeless.If the mainland can continue to develop and develop peacefully, the economic strength will become more and more strong, and the military forces, especially the navy, will naturally grow stronger. The gap between the two sides of the strait will become bigger and bigger, and the support for the United States to Taiwan will become weaker.Although Taiwan independence workers have become presidents, it is difficult to have a dialogue with the mainland. It is very good to maintain the status quo in the short term.As for Lai Qingde, we can only wait to see.
We hope to be peaceful on both sides of the strait, and we also hope that the mainland and Taiwan will continue to develop peacefully. Therefore, we also eagerly hope that the Taiwan Strait can avoid an incompetent incident, because this will affect the security of the entire area.Theoretically, pragmatic Taiwan independence workers should pragmly understand that they have not received the support of most voters. Therefore, they will be more careful in dealing with cross -strait relations.After all, the capital of Taiwan independence has shrunk, and most people want peace and economy.
The author is a former journalist, a former member of the Congress
