Source: Hong Kong Zhongtong News Agency
Looking back in the past 2023, global geopolitical politics continued to be tight.The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not stopped, and the Palestinian -Israeli conflict has resurrected, and the global security and development issues are even more prominent.
In October this year, Hamas suddenly took military operations against Israel, and Israel immediately announced that it entered a state of war.
The Gaza Strip Health Department issued a statement on December 18, local time, saying that since the outbreak of the Palestinian new round of conflicts on October 7, the military operations of the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip have killed 19,453 Palestinian deaths and more than 52,000 more than 52,000People are injured.
Although the conflict of this round of conflicts has been suspended, the complexity, diversity and different stances and attitudes of the international community on this issue have increased the difficulty of resolving the conflict.
Is Pakistan -Israel Conflict this time a black swan incident?Niu Spring, a professor at the National Academy of Arabia of Ningxia University, affirmed this.He believes that before October 7, no one could think of such a major conflict.In recent years, the focus of the Politics in the Middle East in recent years is that Arab countries have established diplomatic relations with Israel, and they want to put on the Pakistani issue aside.Now it proves that it cannot maintain the status quo and cannot be put on hold.In addition, Israel has always believed that Hamas is a threat, but it is controllable.Then after the October 7 incident, Israel changed his view, and he believed that there was only one way to deal with Hamas: that is to completely eliminate it.
What will happen to Israel's next step? Cow Spring Festival predicts that for Israel, large -scale military operations will continue for a period of time, but it will not last indefinitely. It may last for several weeks or one or two or twoOne month, it will become small guerrillas.
When mentioning the role of the United States, Niu New Year said: "The United States is not supervising and mediation. The United States is obviously standing on the side of Israel and supports Israel to fully destroy Hamas.In the war of Mas, pay attention to protecting civilians and reduce humanitarian disasters. "
On the other hand, according to the data of Hamas, among the 20,000 people who died in war, more than 8,000 children, about 6,200 women, and 310 medical staff.More than 52,000 people were injured and more than 6700 people were missing.
The UN Humanitarian Affairs Coordination Department estimates that about 85%of the population of the Gaza Strip, that is, 1.9 million Barstinians, was forced to be displaced.With the continuous advancement of the Israeli Army to the south, more and more Palestinians flood towards the southern cities of the Gaza Strip. The existing asylum facilities cannot meet the surge in demand at all. Most of them can only sleep on the streets in the cold winter.
Nevertheless, Israeli Foreign Minister Elli Kyoto said on December 13 that at this stage, it would be a mistake to stop fire in the Gaza Strip. Regardless of whether it was supported by the international community, Israel will continue to do Hamas's military operations.Essence
If Pakistani conflict is over in the short term, it seems unlikely.
and another Russian -Ukraine conflict, which has attracted worldwide attention, is still in the tension, and has not yet stopped clear signals.
After nearly two years of conflict, Russia, Ukraine, and the West behind both actually showed a certain amount of fatigue. The peaceful negotiations were going to be carried out sooner or later, and it may even be carried out in secret.However, it is reported that once the suspension negotiations have begun, one of the biggest losers is Ukrainian President Zeelianzki.
Ukraine should have been elected in March next year.However, in November this year, the Lada of the Supreme Parliament of Ukraine reached a consensus: the presidential election was not carried out before the end of the war.However, the poll data in November showed that the Ukraine's confidence in Zellezki has dropped from more than 90%at its peak to 32%.Once the armored war was reached, the election was proceeded, and Zelei would probably step down.
Some domestic critics in Ukraine have accused Zellennki from using the "long -term war" to escape the election.In the list of potential competitors of Zellezki, there is the Ukrainian commander of the Ukrainian Dali Zali, and Ukraine and Western media have reported his conflict with Zellezki.
Wang Yili, director of the Institute of International Affairs of Renmin University of China, said in an interview with the Hong Kong News Agency recently that Western has previously criticized Russia as a non -democratic country, but Russia has announced the election and Putin will participate in the election.From the perspective of the West, Russia can be elected in the war, why can't Ukraine be?Once the election, Zellezki will probably step down, the commander -in -chief of the Ukraine will replace it, and then be able to compromise with Russia.Because Zessky has been portrayed as a "hero", he could not compromise.
As for the biggest beneficiary of this conflict, Wang Yili believes that it is the United States.He explained that the reason why the United States is constantly arching is actually weakening Russia and cutting off Russia and Germany's energy connection. Now "Beixi No. 1" has been blown up, so that Germany will not become an industrialized opponent in the United States.The other is the purpose of continuously selling weapons to sell weapons to achieve the return and industrialization of manufacturing, so Ukraine is a victim.The purpose of the United States in the Russian -Ukraine conflict has basically been achieved.
