Source: Hong Kong 01
Author: Ye Dehao
In the early morning of June 6, the damage of the Dam of Kakhovka's dam was still doubtful. Russia and Ukraine accused each other, and both sides had their own gains and losses.The flood flooded dozens of settlements in the Delta area of Kherson and many cities including Hermuson City. Large areas that rely on reservoir water sources nearby suddenly stopped water, and Crimea's water supply was threatened.Irrigation water breaks can absolutely reduce the exports of Ukraine's agricultural exports by 10 %, and fuel, coastal chemicals, and mines are widely spread by floods. At least tens of thousands of people are forced to leave their homes.Nuclear power plants may also be affected.This is undoubtedly the people's livelihood, economy, and ecological disasters brought by war.
But how will the torrential floods from the dams of the dam affect the counterattack that Ukraine has just launched?
The progress of "better than expected"?
Regardless of whether it is Russia, Ukraine or the West, Ukraine has began to launch an offensive one or two days before the dam was destroyed in the dam.
The Russian Ministry of National Defense has continuously declared that the defeat of Ukraine's "large -scale" counterattacks has been announced. After two or three days, thousands of soldiers and hundreds of military vehicles, including tanks.The credibility of this number seems to be questioned -its announcement is to explode the fragments of the U -military "Leopard" main battle tank, which was revealed by Russia's military blog.The film calls on the Ministry of Defense to carefully verify the true nature of its release.
Although European and American countries rarely publicize the specific military operations of Ukraine, the Washington Post has a foreign affairs columnist quoting official Joe Biden officials said that Washington has counterattack against Ukraine on June 5 "The progress of better than expected "is encouraged, saying that Ukraine has advanced 5 to 10 kilometers on the front lines of some mines.The major military blogs or frontline military commanders such as Rybar and Alexander Khodakovsky also reported that the Ukrainian army did have a certain degree of advance in many places in the front line.
From the perspective of the war situation in recent days, Ukraine's counterattack is still in the stage of testing each other's weaknesses.It has extended from the northernmost road of the Russia and Ukraine to the south of Hermone, and has varying degrees of military activities.
Test on the Qianli front line
First of all, Belgorod, a "cross -border invasion" in Belgorod, which is bordering of Kharkiv, Ukraine.Two Anti -Puki Corps organized by Russians- "Russia Volunteer Group" and "Freedom for Russia Legging" -still move in the local area.The army was deported.
On June 7, the longest ammonia gas pipeline passing through Halkov was also destroyed. Both Russia and Ukraine were accusing each other, similar to the destruction incident of the Khahofka dam.
Secondly, in Lugansk, the Uchura, the Ukraine continued to push forward to Svatove on the main point of traffic.
At the same time, in Donetsk, the Russian army just won the small city Bakhmut last month.The Ministry of National Defense of Ukraine also called it "the earthquake of war."Russia's military blog acknowledged the counterattack of Ukraine, and the Wagner Group leader, the leader of the Wagner Group, who had previously played the main force of Bachurut, said that he would defend the defense to the Ministry of Defense, but the regular army was after the next day.Continuously lose land, so as to expand its discord with the Ministry of National Defense.
The new battle opened in the counterattack at the beginning of this counterattack occurred in the eastern part of Zapolo and southwestern Donetzk.The first place to start the counterattack was south of Velyka Novosilka, about 80 kilometers northwest of Mariupol, the city of Aceka.Secondly, the area of Orikhiv, about 85 kilometers northeast of Melitopol, southern transportation hub of Zapolo.Mary Ubol and Melitobol are both Russian traffic fortress to Crimea on land. Renyi will be recaptured by Ukraine. It will also cut off this "land bridge", causing Crimea, which is extremely critical to control the Black Sea.Dangerous situation.
In addition to the advancement of the front line, Ukraine has also increased long -range attacks on Microtopol and its northeast city TOKMAK.
However, people have long known that this direction is the "must attack" of the Ukraine. Therefore, it is the most stringent region of the Russian army.Ukraine's weakness or gap.
Hermone is okay?
The southernmost Hermone of the Russian -Ukraine front line, Ukraine's potential offensive is a "mystery".Before Khahofka was suddenly blown up in the early morning of June 6, the Ukraine moved only on the small islands or shores around the East Shore of Dnipro (also known as the left bank or the south bank) to fight against the Russian army. Among them, of which, of which, of which, of whichThere are also sporadic military bases.However, analysts generally do not expect that the Ukraine will attack the Russian actual control zone on the East Coast here.The Ukrainian Army was not enough to make its equipment crossing the river.
The bizarre explosion of the Carhofka dam has made the Ukraine cross the river to counterattack the dream. In the short term, both sides of the river can only be concentrated in disaster relief. To some extent, the war is more focused on the front lines outside Hulson.(Press: After the dam was destroyed, some Russian military blog claimed that before the dam was bombed, the number of Ukraine Crossing Crossing Clip in the Ukraine also estimated that Ukraine was trying to compete for the control of the dam itself, but the news was not widely accepted.)
Overall, the flood caused by the damage of the Khahofka dam has indeed hindered any potential Yuehe offensive of the Ukrainian army and also made the local government distract the disaster.Below, the short -term impact of the incident on Ukraine's counterattack is very limited, but the side branches of the counterattack.
The "flood" that can truly disperse Ukraine's counterattack is not in Hermone, not even above the front line of Ukraine, but on the Mountains of the Capitol of Washington, and at the conference venue of the NATO summit in July this year this yearVilnius, the capital of Lithuania.
Return and defeat?
Although everyone said at this moment that the counterattack of Ukraine has begun, the 23rd and 31st motor brigade of Ukraine, which is "named" by the Russian Ministry of Defense, is actually not a nine brigade forces established by Western training in the past six months.one.It can be seen that Ukraine is still in the tentative stage.As the Western military reserve is continuously offset, as long as Ukraine does not want to go in and retains its strength, there will be no major frustration in the short term, and it can even increase the chance of future counterattack.
The question is whether Ukraine has no capital.
On the one hand, in Washington, the Republican House of Republican House Congress Kevin McCarthy has stated on June 6 that even if the Senate passed a new round of aid funds, he would not send it to the House of Representatives to vote for votingEssenceUnder the risk coercion that US military aid this autumn or winter is about to interrupt, Ukraine may choose to seek a quick battle on the battlefield.
On the other hand, at the NATO Summit held on Lithuania on July 11, member states will focus on how to giveA suitable "security guarantee" for Ukraine, as an induced Ukraine's downstream of negotiations to Russia when it failed to recapture the territory, also gave Ukraine a way out to solve the war outside the battlefield.French President Emmanuel Macron recently proposed to add a roadmap for Ukraine to join NATO, and mentioned that Ukraine would give Israel a long -term military support commitment to the United States.
However, NATO countries have different opinions on the security assurance of which intensity should be given to Ukraine.The strongest is of course the status of NATO members, the weakest is a paper -like paper like Budapest Memorandum in 1994.Among them, there are also helping to enhance the local defense industry in Ukraine, the above -mentioned Israeli model, and the so -called "Kyid Security PACT" initiative provided by some NATO member states.With their own opinions, countries will probably not reach a clear consensus at this NATO summit.
Without the steps of the peace talks, there is no strong security guarantee in the West, and even the majority of the United States, the majority of the military aid, also signs signs of shake. Ukraine may choose to be lonely at the time of being unsure, bid farewell to the temptation, and fully counterattack.This is the biggest risk that can lead to farewell to Ukraine's counterattack failure.
