Ye Dehao: The ＂Dead Bureau＂ of the Russian and Ukraine War is now changing Li Hui i

Source: Hong Kong 01

Author: Ye Dehao

Li Hui, a special representative of Chinese Eurasian affairs, will visit Ukraine on May 16th and 17th as the first stop of the "political resolution of Ukraine crisis" for its Wu, waves, Germany, France, and Russia.The visit of the Russian Contest, who was the Russian Ambassador to Russia for ten years and was awarded the "Friendship Medal", has a subtle fit with the latest development of the Russian and Ukraine War.

Since the Russian army withdrew from Kherson City in November last year, and returned to the east bank of Dnieper River (also called "left bank"), the front line of Russia and Ukraine comes from the cold winter.Enter the state of almost frozen.The Russian army's offensive in Lugansk Oblast in Northeast China was only entered.Wagner Group's only attack on Bakhmut, Bakhmut, the only Russian troops in the Russian army. Almost all the details of the Russian side have laid and which streets promoted to which streets -this street -thisSince the beginning of the year, Bachmut has maintained a state of "might be lost in the next few days".

Entering May, Ukraine's spring is approaching, and it is more likely to make humans kill each other. The battlefield, which was almost dead, also began to appear various changes.

First of all, it was the black counterattack of Bach Murte.In this city that was surrounded by the Russian army for several months, the Ukraine seemed to find a way to break the wings.On May 13th, the Ukraine said that he had recaptured 17.3 square kilometers of land around the city in the past three days; the Russian side acknowledged that some troops had returned to the "defensive location" and two colonels were killed at the front line;Yevgeny Prigozhin also shows that Ukraine's supply routes are no longer attacked by Russia.

Although more than 90 % of the land in the city of Bachomot is still in the hands of Russia, if Ukraine can eventually recapture this small city that allows the Russian army for ten months and tens of thousands of people, this will seriously crack down on the Russians.Regarding this war and even the confidence in Putin, the Russian side is more willing to make a concession to the end of the war on the negotiating table.

Objectively speaking, who occupied Bakhmut has no significant impact on the battle, but due to its significance of its symbolic significance, we cannot rule out the possibility of the Bachmurt's war will be the last battle of the Russia and Ukraine War.

Secondly, it is a new wave of Russian long -range offensive that the mainstream Western media pays less attention to and analyzed.Although the energy infrastructure attack since October last year has ended, it has been slowed down for a while this year, and Russia has significantly increased its drone and missile attacks on Ukraine since mid -late April.According to the statistics of the Washington Institute of Think Tank (ISW), Russia has launched at least 10 rounds of remote attacks since April 19.

Among, Russia has greatly reduced the use of accurate missiles, and the use of Iranian drones is likely to be because the supply of missiles is not as needed, and Western sanctions have also limited the import of missile production parts such as semiconductor.The Russian attack target seems to be changed to an arsenal behind the attack on Ukraine.From the public information, Pavlohrad, a city in southeastern Ukraine, and KhmelNYTSKYI in the western cities in the western cities, respectively on May 1 and 13, respectively.Russia's long -range attack hit the Big Bang (the former was hit by missiles and the latter was suspected to be hit by drones).

Since the Intelligent Intelligence Leaks in April, people know that Washington estimates that the Ukraine air defense system is likely to collapse in mid -to -late May due to insufficient missiles in February.The unable to obtain a major loopholes in the air advantage, which is not only possible to destroy the counterattack launched by Ukraine, but also to completely reverse the war situation.

Russia has densely remote attacks in the past month. On the one hand, it may be to consume the remaining air defense missiles in Ukraine in a low cost manner, and on the other hand, it is to detect Ukrainian air defense vulnerabilities -after all, many countries in the WestThe air defense system is not enough to protect the Ukrainian territory in terms of quantity, and can only protect part of important areas.

At present, Ukraine's interception rate for Russian drones and missiles is about 75%, which seems to be safe.The Patriot missile defense system in the United States has unexpectedly shot down the dagger hypersonic missile (KH-47 Kinzhal) that Putin had once said that no one can intercept; recently, there are four Russian aircraft in bordering Ukraine.Bryansk Oblast was shot down in the air, including two Mi-8 (MI-8) helicopters made of Russia, a Su-35 (SU-35) fighter and a Su-34 (SU-34) battle.The bomber is the largest single loss for the Russian Air Force since March last year.

However, Ukraine's air defense is still a potential gap that Russia can try to break through. If it is successful, it may lead to the defeat of Ukraine soldiers.

On the other side, during the visit of Ukraine President Zelezzki from May 13th to 15th, these European powers showed their determination to help Ukraine for a long time.The Italian Right Prime Minister Melonon has been serving the two ruling party who opposed the military aid Ukraine for half a year. In front of Zellennki, it shows that "our support will be 360 -degree stamped all times."Italian media, also known as Meloni, has sent the SAMP/T air defense system to Ukraine with a low -key France, and completed the related training of Ukraine soldiers near Rome.

It is worth noting that German Chancellor Affairs is aid.During his visit to Zessky, he suddenly announced the total value of 2.7 billion euros of military aid, which is equivalent to the total military aid since the Germany's Russia and Ukraine war began last year, including 30 Leopard-1 main battle tanks (Leopard I), 20 mink-rats-type infantry combat vehicles (MARDER), 100 other infantry chariots, 18 self-walted howitzers, 200 reconnaissance drones, and four sets of IRIS-T SLM air defense systems (equivalent to UkrainianlandThe existing quantity).Many analysts believe that this is a display of German Defense Prosecutor Pitleyius, which has taken office in January this year.

During the visit to France and Britain, Zelei Sky also received French President Macron and British Prime Minister Sonak promised to provide a series of arms, including infantry chariots, armored vehicles, air defense systems, air defense missiles, etc.The British, who is more willing to innovate, will also provide hundreds of new long -range attack drones (200 kilometers). Analysis is believed to be a 3D play suicide drone developed by the United Kingdom for the Russia and Ukraine War.Macron also stated that he would train a total of 6,000 Ukrainian soldiers in France and Poland this year.On the same day when Zezelki visited the United Kingdom, the US Department of Defense also announced that it promised to supply 31 M1 tanks (M1 Abrams) in Ukraine to Germany for training.

This round of European -dominated weapons 'losses, which reflects Europe's concerns about the United States' support to the United States to some extent.At present, the US President Biden and the Republicans of the House of Representatives are trapped in the upper limit of the national product. Among them, arguing about how the government cuts deficits, and Republicans have long stated that they will not issue a blank check to Ukraine.It is a question to enter a new round of large -scale subsidies before entering the 2024 election year.

At the same time, the former President Trump, which can end the war in one day and refuses to support Ukraine to defeat, seems to be getting bigger and more opportunities in the Republican Presidential Election Campaign.The victory of "50-50".Therefore, Europe must face the possibility of returning to the United States to return to isolation and exit the Ukraine.Regardless of the direction of the war, Europe must prove that it has the ability to control the situation of Ukraine -proposed long -term and powerful military aid commitmentsOne of the important parts.This development also meets the "European Autonomy" advocated by Macron.

Britain and France have played the role of taking the lead in upgrading to U -military aid, making Ukraine more likely to play a result in this year's counterattack.On May 11, before Zenderski visited Britain, the British Defense Minister Wallace stated that Britain had provided Ukraine with "Storm Shadow" cruise missiles with a range of 250 kilometers, exceeding all the past Western aid weapons of Western aid in the pastThe range of the range is obviously that the ATACMS missiles that can launch and have a range of 300 kilometers in Ukraine's export to Ukraine, which can launch, so that Ukraine can effectively attack Russia's logistics during counterattacks.

A few days after Wallace announced the news, Ukraine was using Storm Shadow missiles to fight against the target of Russia's city.Because the storm must be modified before it can be installed on Ukraine's Soviet fighters, it can be seen that Britain has long been deployed here.

On the issue of losing Ukraine in NATO fighters, although Sunak did not say that typhoon fighters used in UK with Ukraine did not propose to provide basic flight training for Ukraine pilots.On the same day of Zediski's visit to Britain, Macron also interviewed stating that he had "opened the door" for training Ukraine pilots, and would conduct discussions with the United States.

Although different countries such as the United Kingdom and Sweden may supply Ukraine in their respective NATO fighters, the most suitable for Ukraine in various aspects such as quantity, maintenance support, and parts supply is the F-16 of the United States, and the USThe F-16 is also a fighter that Ukraine has asked the United States to supply or agree with other countries since the start of the war.Because Britain and France did not use the F-16, they also proposed to train Ukraine pilots at the same time, which is undoubtedly pressure on the United States.

Zelei Sky, while visiting the UK, re-lifted the so-called "Military Aircraft Alliance", which means that a large number of European countries used or used to use the F-16 country to export fighters to Ukraine under the United States.Among them, Poland has already taken the lead in Slovakia to bring their MIG-29 Soviet fighters to Ukraine.The Netherlands also shows that it is open to the output F-16.

At this moment, the situation is as the British and France take the lead in supplying or indicating the supply of tanks to Ukraine. The pressure of the two countries eventually allowed the United States and Germany to export their own main battle tanks to Ukraine.Coinciding with these countries' leaders this week, they will meet with Biden at the G7 Summit in Japan. Ukraine Foreign Minister also publishes articles on the influential foreign policy at the US diplomatic elite at this time, and proposes that the F-16 loses Ukraine.Five major reasons.

Although the United States really decides to allow the F-16 to transport Ukraine, Ukraine pilots may take at least a few months of dense training to send the fighter in handy, but with the support of F-16, Ukraine's ground offensive offensiveThere is a greater chance of winning, and the success rate of Russia's success in Ukraine's air defense shortage will also be greatly reduced.This will also remove the possibility of Russia's only possibility of winning for a long time and not relying on the nuclear war.

From the above -mentioned various warfare development and the recipients of the military forces of various countries, the situation of Ukraine is at least better than Russia at least in the future.

Moreover, Russia also has a very unfavorable political development inside and outside.First, from the perspective of the above -mentioned military aid upgrade, Western countries have probably seen through Putin's "nuclear intimidation" just "intimidation" forever. Therefore, in the future, there will be more room for Ukraine to defeat the Russian army.Because Western aid at this time is not much expensive, they are more likely to make up for the Ukrainian war from the cost consideration.

Second, it helps Russia to surround Ukraine Beros on both sides, but recently a rumor that President Lukashenko has a health problem (even Russian official media has made relevant reports).After "hidden" for nearly a week and absence of multiple important events, Lukashenko appeared again with official photos and videos on May 15, but still failed to doubt. If Lukashenko, who has been in power for nearly 30 years, is reallyHe is seriously ill and cannot be in charge. In addition to Ukraine, Putin also has to deal with the potential political turmoil of White Ross, which will affect his short -term deployment and long -term determination in Ukraine.

Third, the internal fighting situation of the military in the Russian internal affairs continues, and it may even be more serious than outsiders' imagination.The leader of the Wagner Corps Poligon's scolding war with the Ministry of Defense continued. Pritigo had previously fired to the "grandfather" who "may be a bastard", which was interpreted by some people as criticism of Putin.The Washington Post also quoted the previously leaked US confidential intelligence, saying that Perigo has communicated with the Ukrainian intelligence department, and even proposed to exchange the Ukraine's retreat with the local intelligence of the Russian army — Perigo Ren right right right.This first admits generously, and then denying it as a fake news, it is unknown, but if the situation is true, it can be seen how serious the disagreement between the Russian force department is.

The above situations, Putin cannot have a general understanding, nor can it be unknown that the war continues to be greater than its advantages, and he has long gone down the western aid of the Western Aid.Only half and half grasp, and the so -called "long -term" is not known.

However, the problem is that after Putin "publicly invested in Russia" in the four Ukraine states last September, Putin has tied the "special military operations" with Ukraine in Ukraine.Under the premise of the solution, any steps to be announced by the end of military operations are obtained.

At present, the leaders of major European and American countries have almost cut off communication with Putin. The only thing that can effectively talk to Russia, and even persuaded Russia, only China.What Li Hui has to do this time is to grasp the timing of changes in the Russian and Ukraine War at this moment, give play to the indispensable role of China, and adjust the equations that can be stepped down by all parties, so that the war does not have to be won by the actual victory of the bloody battlefield.The end is over.