Source: Voice of Germany
Author: Daniil Sotnikov
It is generally believed that the Ukrainian army will launch a large -scale offensive in the near future, and Russia is also stepping up preventive measures and built hundreds of kilometers of defense work.So, where is the weakness of the Russian army?What difficulties will the Ukraine recover from the land?
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Since December last year, the Russian army began to build a huge defense work along the front line.Satellite images show that the Russian army is working on some strategic places in its occupation area to prepare for the strategic counterattack initiated by Ukraine.The British Intelligence Department said that this is the largest defensive work in the world over the past few decades.
In addition, Reuters analyzes thousands of satellite pictures after analyzing that the border between Russia and Ukraine and eastern and southern Ukraine is occupied by the Russian army.Defense work with the protective wall.
Rob Lee, a senior researcher at the Philadelphia Foreign Policy Research Institute, told Reuters that the success of the Ukraine's counterattack last year gave the Russians a lesson."After the Ukrainian counterattack won Halkov, Russia has realized that it is entirely possible to eat defeat and lose land. I think the Russians have realized that Ukraine is capable of launching counterattacks."
What protective wall did the Russians build?
The defensive work built by Russia is mainly composed of one -person trenches.The trenches are reinforced with sand bags or stones to resist bullets and shells.
Brady Africk, an analyst at the American Institute of Washington, analyzed satellite pictures that this type of work is currently built around some traffic channels and strategic towns.
Reuters reported that related pictures also showed that the Russian army built various obstacles in order to block Ukraine's heavy military equipment, such as anti -tank ditch, cement cast "dragon teeth" and "Czech Hedgehog" and other World War II.Common anti -tank means.In addition, the Russian army also buried a large number of mines.
Where will the Ukrainian army launch a counterattack?
The place where the Russian army ordered the construction of a large -scale defense offensive was obviously the place where the Ukraine was most likely to launch a counterattack.The Russian frontline defensive work is mainly concentrated in the narrow area of the Crimean Peninsula occupied by the Russian army in the southeast of Zabroe, eastern Ukraine.
Australian retired Major General Ryian said that the Russian army clearly believes that southern Ukraine, especially Zabroe, will be the focus of the Ukraine's launching counterattack.
Oleh Zhdanov, a military expert in Ukraine, also said: "The Russian army built in just six months is quite strong."Defense facilities are sporadic and not coherent.For example, there is almost no defense facility in the highway network of Melitobal.
The Russian Army hopes to use the defensive work to make up for shortness
Niklas Masuhr at the Safety Research Center of the Zurich Federal Institute of Technology, saying that the main purpose of Russia to build large -scale defense engineering is not to obstruct the Ukraine's breakthrough line, but also a delayTactics make the Ukraine consume more "manpower and time" during the offensive.Musre believes that based on the existence of these defensive work, the way of counterattack in the Ukraine will have some predictability to some extent."In addition, defensive work can also play a role in the Russian army, because the Ukrainian army is better at using flexible and motorized combat methods." However, Musar also said that the Russian army's adherence to defense work also made Wuwu Wu, so that Wuwu also made Wuwu Wuwu, which also made Wu Wuwu.The military assessment of the Russian army is easier.
Rob Lee from the Institute of Foreign Policy believes that the Russian army has gathered troops on the line of defense, which also allows the Ukraine to be in a favorable position. They can enter the rear of Russia's territory in depth, so that the various lines of defense collapse and RussiaThe army fell into a state of defeat.
The anti -air defense capacity and the low -Russian soldiers
Ridanov warned that the artillery positions of the Russian army are not yet available on satellite pictures, and they usually expose the position before the battle starts.In addition, the Russian fighter aircraft is also a factor that cannot be ignored. However, Ukraine's air defense capacity is strong, and the Russian fighter jets cannot obtain air control.Ridanov said: "What is important is that the Ukraine must have sufficient tactical air defense systems, and only in this way can provide sufficient protection for the ground forces." He said that whether to have air defense systems that can cover the entire combat area, this is this. This isIt is an important factor that must be considered.
Although some observers believe that the Russian army's defense work is sufficient to resist the large -scale offensive of the Ukraine, the Nikkanov still believes that the success of the Ukraine's offensive does not exactly depends on the Russian army's labor.Whether it is firm."No matter how deep the trenches are dug, how firm it is, the key factor that determines the winning or defeat is still the morale of the guardian." He said that after the Russian army occupied Hulson, it took three months to build three defensive defense.Working, but in the end, it was still unable to resist the offensive of the Ukraine.
The combat concept of traditional defense work and modernization
Franz-Stefan Gady, a modern war expert based in the Institute of International Strategy, London, told CNN: "Ukraine's goal must cause paralysis of the Russian command system and the panic of officers and soldiers. Tactics in tactics.In surprise, the command capabilities on the battlefield, and the morale of officers and soldiers, it is likely that it will play a decisive role within 24 hours after the attack. "
Rennov said that in the modern war, the small and flexible military units played an important role in the offensive.He said that in the recovery of Halkov's battle, small -scale motor units did not need to shot one shot and a bomb to break the gap between the defense work, causing confusion and panic in the enemy forces, and then the main forces ended by the main forces ending.fighting.
Western military aid is of great significance
Rob Lee at the Institute of Foreign Policy said: "Tanks and armored vehicles must be combined with engineering, artillery, and even fighters to defeat the enemy's defense line at different levels. This combat method is called the" multi -military collaboration ".He said that recently the military aid provided by the West to Ukraine is to help Ukraine have such capabilities.
Ridanov said Ukraine has now received a mine -sweeping tank.He also emphasized the M58 Miclic mine -sweeping equipment provided by the United States and armored bridge vehicles and engineering vehicles used by Germany to cross small obstacles.
Musl also said that the weapons provided by the West will be the key to Ukraine's ability to improve the collaborative combat capabilities. In addition, it is also important to continue to provide weapons, ammunition and related information.
Australian retired Major General Ryan said that the wit and clever combat planning may be more important than Western weapons. "The most important aid they get is not weapons and equipment, but multi -soldiers provided by camp levels and higher commanders.Training for collaborative combat capabilities. This is extremely complicated ground operation, and it is not for you to complete a picker team. "
Musl of the Safety Research Center of the Zurich Federal Institute of Technology said: "Since the outbreak of the war, we have never seen the Ukrainian army launching a large -scale attack on Russia. The previous offensives were launched for small Russian stock troops.This is an unprecedented new situation. "
