Source: China News Weekly
Author: Zheng Liying
Sudan armed conflict entered the 20th day, and the conflict between the conflict reached a new ceasefire agreement.
According to the latest statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of South Sudan, after communicating with the President Kirk of South Sudan, the Sudan Armed Forces Commander Berham and Sudan's rapid support forces Darglo "agree" for seven days.From May 4th to May 11th.The statement also pointed out that the two generals will appoint representatives to participate in peaceful negotiations.
The South Sudan government said that the "rapid worsening humanitarian situation" in the Sudan capital of KhatooMoum has made the ease of suspension of crisis.However, because the previously reached ceasefire agreement failed to calm down the fire, the outside world was not optimistic about the prospect of this new ceasefire agreement.
The worst situation
In the past 20 days, the conflict has used the country's heaviest weapon on the streets of Camemoum in the capital of Camemou. The helicopter and fighters whistled over the head. Residents could only hide at home or escape their homes.Many buildings have been turned into ruins, the water supply has been cut off, and the electricity is intermittent.For a week, Khatoum, with a population of 7 million, could not find a bakery in his business.The Sudan doctor committee issued a statement saying that the hospitals and health institutions in the city of Khamoum were "completely stopped service" by the shell."There are more and more corpses scattered on the street, which is causing an environmental disaster."
Humanitarian rescue is difficult to reach the conflict area. After the three employees of the World Grain Planning Department were killed in the conflict on April 15, the agency suspended local aid and the camp was ransacked.
The head of the Norwegian refugee committee, Wil Carter, told China News Weekly that before the conflict broke out, there were about 15.8 million people (about one -third of the total population) in Sudan.It is making the situation worse.
In the view of Alex Dwar, the executive director of the Fleen Law and Diplomacy of the Fleen Law and Diplomacy of the University of Tavz, the Sudan crisis also revealed a "dark reality", the United States and its Arabia and their ArabiaEuropean allies are anxious to rescue the people of their nations and have not made full efforts in the mediation of the armist.
In 2021, Jeffrey Feltman, a special envoy in the United States, went to Sudan to mediate and met with Bohan and Dachalo.Two days later, Sudan had a coup, and Fernman expressed "extremely shocking" for military coup on Twitter.After that, the "Four Kingdoms" composed of the United States, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE began to promote the negotiations of Bolghan and Dachalo and complete the new transition arrangements.
By the end of 2022, the Sudan military signed a political framework agreement with the Central Committee of the Sudan Military, some political parties, professional organizations and associations, and armed sports groups at the Sudan Presidential Palace.However, in the implementation of some details, all parties have fallen into disagreement again. One of the biggest differences is: whether to incorporate the rapid support forces of 100,000 people into the armed forces, including who will lead the new unit, and where is the supervision of where the party is supervised.This process.
It is said that on April 8th before the conflict, the last meeting was held in a farm in the Kagouum suburbs on April 8 before the conflict.During this meeting, Bulhan demanded that the rapid support forces withdrew from the city of Fahill, located in Darfur, western Sudan, and stopped entering Kayoumum.According to the two mediationists at the scene, Dagagal was demanded in turn and asked a friend of his Egyptian forces to withdraw from the Merwa Air Force Base.Since then, the two sides have never met again until the worst situation appeared.
In the early morning of April 15, a conflict broke out in a military base south of Khamoum. Sudan armed forces and Sudan's rapid support forces accused the other party of provoking the conflict.The two sides initially launched a fierce competition for the control of the airport and military bases. Subsequently, in the densely populated neighborhoods and adjacent Endaman City, the two sides used heavy weapons during the war, and the conflict was quickly upgraded.
At 10 am on the same day, in the presidential office in the center of Kotoumou, the three Sudan mediators were still waiting for the emergence of Bohan and Dagagal.
Hard mediation
After the Sudan situation continued to deteriorate, the United Nations, the African Union, and the National Alliance of the Arabian National Alliance have expressed serious concerns. The international community has called for the conflict to immediately stop the fire and resolve the crisis through dialogue.
UN assistant head of the United Nations Martin Griffis said on May 3 that he hopes to have face -to -face talks with all parties to the Sudan battle within two to three days to ensure the assistance team to transport rescue supplies.
After the conflict, U.S. Secretary of State Broskens, who is visiting Africa, talks with Boolean and Dachan, respectively, and urges both parties to abide by the ceasefire agreement.Kenya President Reto also conveyed clear information to the Sudans at the end of the Ramadan and took the initiative to propose a mediation conflict.
At the same time, Sudan's near Egypt and South Sudan also expressed their willingness to participate in the mediation.Egyptian President Cecil said that the Egyptian government is communicating with both sides of the Sudan in order to stop fighting and began to restore the stable negotiations of neighboring countries.He said that he and South Sudan President Kiel was ready to "play the role of mediation."In addition, Israel, Turkey, and Djibouti also issued mediation initiatives.
From the perspective of Moriti Mutaga, the head of the African project in the International Crisis, neighbors, including Kenya, are eager to help resolve the Sudan crisis as a positive signal, but he suspects who leaders can complete this alone.Difficult task.
Sudan connects North Africa, East Africa, and Southara Africa, while adjacent to the Red Sea.Although South Sudan took away most of the oil resources after independence, Sudan was still a traffic channel for petroleum transportation."Regardless of geographical attributes and energy attributes, Sudan is very important in the strategic layout of large powers." Liu Linzhi, a researcher at the Safety Room of the West Asian Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told China News Weekly.
Over the years, global and regional powers in Russia, the United States, Saudi Arabia and other regions have launched a "influence compete" in Sudan.Alex Dwar, Executive Director of the Fleen School of Law and Diplomacy at the University of Tofuz University in the United States, pointed out to China News Weekly that Sudan conflict is always in a terrible and familiar model. It is fierce.At the beginning of the confrontation, both sides vowed to quickly achieve a decisive victory, but this has never been achieved.Just as many conflicts in history, real ceasefire is difficult, because either party does not want to close it with disadvantages temporarily.As the battle continues and the supplies are exhausted, the two sides will recruit internal militia agents and seek external help.
Andreas Crigg, assistant professor at the Department of National Defense Research at the King of London, believes that the current timing of the two sides really sitting in front of the negotiating table is still immature.Only when the conflict between the conflict is aware of the failure to obtain the victory through further upgrading the conflict, will they seek political solutions.
In Liu Linzhi, the current ceasefire can be regarded as a positive signal, indicating that the two parties of Burhan and Dagaglo have not closed the door to dialogue and peace talks.However, it is still difficult to achieve continuous and peaceful situation in the short term. On the one hand, the so -called ceasefire status is extremely unstable, and the two sides are actually fighting in many places. On the other handLarge, and they all have the support of external forces. To achieve a satisfactory power distribution plan that both sides are satisfied, it is not easy.
On May 4th, on the first day of the new round of ceasefire agreement, the capital Kagoum still came out of fierce artillery.
