The popularity of
ChatGPT made people see the future dawn of GM artificial intelligence (AI). The prospect of AI replacing human work has also become a topic of extensive discussion in society.From a micro perspective, the AI alternative analysis of various industries is endless.At the macro level, from the 2020 US presidential election of Democratic candidate Yang Anze, to the forward -looking characters such as OPENAI president Aldman, they have discussed extensive discussions on the vision of unconditional basic income (UBI).However, how to transition from the distribution of today's society to the future UBI model, and whether it can achieve such a transition is still a mystery.AI has caused a large number of people to not directly participate in labor and disadvantages, where the financial support of UBI comes from, and whether the willingness to embrace AI in different economies is worth thinking about.
In the past three years, from the launch of large quantitative easing to today's suppression of inflation, it has provided us with rich clues to the world of UBI.In March 2020, the crown disease epidemic broke out, the U.S. unemployment rate soared, and the US Federal Reserve Entertainment was urgently quantified and loose. In two months, it released more than 240 billion US dollars (about S $ 300 billion).Paid money.
In 2022, the United States has soared, the labor market is hot, and the labor participation continues to be lower than the embarrassing situation before the epidemic.High inflation has prompted the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates rapidly, tighten monetary policy, and turn with previous policies 180 degrees.
Look at monetary policy first.Since the decoupling of the US dollar with gold in 1973, the Fed's goal of governance of inflation has actually set a new anchor for the US dollar, which is the living standard of the American people.When the world is turbulent, from raw materials to energy prices rising, and the cost of living rises, the Fed tightens currency, enhances the value of the US dollar, and strives to pull the US dollar to procure life costs.When globalization has led to a decline in commodity prices and a decline in living costs, the Federal Reserve is loose currency, stimulate Americans to increase consumption, reduce the value of US dollar, and still maintain the cost of living in US dollar pricing.
Therefore, when AI can increase productivity, reduce product marginal costs, and lower the cost of living in the United States, it is actually creating conditions for the Fed's loose currency.Under this logic, the US dollar is actually a tool for the daily life of measuring and valuation people.
Looking at the employment problem again, one of the reasons for the popularity of the labor market today is that the participation of the labor force is still low, and it has not returned to the level before the epidemic.As the balance of household deposits has gradually decreased in the past two years, labor participation has gradually rebounded.One of the basic facts reflected here is that quite a number of people need to obtain income through work to maintain living standards.However, when you do not work, you can also maintain a certain level of living standards to mature, and people may be more inclined to the latter between the continued labor and the basic income of unconditional.
The phenomenon of employment in the past three years and the "reversal" phenomenon issued by the dollar can give us some revelation about the arrival of the AI revolution.When AI can work instead of human work, the price of goods and services will be reduced due to the reduction in production costs.This trend further feedback to the monetary policy, which makes the Fed's energy issuance more currency.The more AI produces, the more US dollars can be issued.These mostly printed currencies can be used to solve the problem of life of the unemployment population.
It is worth thinking about how many people ’s jobs have replaced, and therefore how much living costs have reduced their costs. The two need to reach a balance.The former requires the Federal Reserve to issue more currencies to maintain people's lives, and the latter provides space for the Fed's issuing currency.
Under this system, the US dollar is actually a kind of distribution medium that distributes the products and services produced by AI to the public.AI has enhanced productivity, creating goods and services, and essentially created wealth for society.
Author Lian Qiao is the vice president of Qian Kuangshou Technology Co., Ltd.
Sun Chenshuo is the National University of Singapore
Assistant professor at the School of Computer
