China ’s economic data came out in April. In March, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by only 0.7%, and 1%fell by 0.3 percentage points in February.In March, the producer price index (PPI), from a year -on -year perspective, decreased by 2.5%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month.Consumption is full and softened, and the economy is severely shrank.In fact, in May last year, the Chinese government urgently held the National Conference to Mobilize the Economic OEMs urgently. After the 20th Congress of the Mainland Government and the "Two Sessions", they also issued a lot of economic policies.error.
It is difficult to cure, and Japan has a lesson.The difficulty is that there are not in Japan that year, and China has it.The uncertainty of the development environment internal and external development has increased risk.At present, seeing problems is more important than seeing results.
Question 1 is overcapacity.China's overcapacity is a large scale and an overcurrent technology.The world factory is once proud, and the "retreat to lock the country" is the pain of today.900 million laborers and 600 million houses. The real estate industry is already yellow flowers, and the automotive industry has set off a wave of closure.China is an export -oriented country. The foreign trade orders have decreased sharply, the factory fails, and the employment is difficult. Some people cannot find a job at the age of 35.The internal circulation cannot be done at all, so the excess capacity cannot digest.
The second is high leverage.China's high leverage world.Printing for long -term dominance of the economic leap forward. Now the broad currency supply (M2) is too large, and the bank's money cannot find a way out.The US M2 discounts equivalent to RMB 150 trillion (about S $ 29 trillion, the same below), China's GDP (GDP) is two -thirds of the United States, but M2 is close to the United States.China GDP is 12.0 trillion yuan, and more than 36.6 million trillion yuan in debt, all over the real estate, infrastructure, and cultural tourism economy, and there are many losses.Bank loans to high -speed rail and power grids are mostly dead money.High leverage cannot be solved.
Third, inadequate development is inadequate.The housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are 150 times that of rural areas in the west, and dozens of times that of fourth and fifth -tier cities.Most of Made in China is now downstream products and low -end products, and electric vehicles lag behind Tesla.In addition to the fuselage, wings, interior decoration, etc., most of China's first domestic aircraft C919 is provided by Western companies.China's manufacturing industry has lost its technical advantages, and the imbalance is not fully expanded.
Fourth, high input and low output.The extensive development is China's fate.The Chinese stalls are too large, too much waste, and too low benefits.Chips, solar energy, electric vehicles, 5G, as well as high -speed rail, ports, airports, large bridges, and a large number of new districts have occupied a large amount of investment, most of them have low returns, and some are even bad.The investment trillion yuan to develop 5G was crushed by 6G in the United States. It was overwhelmed by the trillion yuan development chip.China uses so much money to touch the river to cross the river, and no matter how rich countries, they can't afford it.
Sino -US technology difference is large
Five is the marginalization of the world factory.The manufacturing industry accounts for more than 30%of China's GDP. Today, Kunshan, Dongguan, the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Beijing -Tianjin -Hebei manufacturing are empty, and the recession speed is shocking.The engine of the world's factory is turned off. The surface is due to the plunge in orders. The deep reason is that the technical dividend is exhausted.In the 18th century industrialization revolution, the Chinese Qing government was still retreating.In the 3.0 era of the 20th century, China was still poor.The reform and opening up follow the market for marketing technology, cottage, plagiarism, and curve overtaking.
Yang Xiaokai, Australian economist in the last century, and Lin Yifu, honorary dean of the Peking University National Development Research Institute, had a big debate of a development path. Lin Yifu won Yang Xiaokai.After the establishment of a world factory in China, it was thought that the industrial revolution was so simple.Since then, it has showed off the Chinese model of the 300 -year industrialization road in the West in 30 years.The problem is that the technological revolution is an eternal institutional competition. It is difficult for China to get 3.0 technology to update, while the West is upgraded to 4.0 technology, or even 5.0 technology.
Today, Sino -US technology difference is two generations.Geopolitics makes the decourse appear politically correct, and re -industrialization makes the cost of American production lower than China. The reorganization of the industrial chain will make China's existing industries empty.The vitality of technological innovation comes from an innovative society. The Chinese government replaces the market and strengthens control. It can complete the use ofistism, but cannot complete the social transformation of innovative drive.Therefore, at that time, China ’s 3.0 industrial technology products, but now it is reduced to downstream products, products with low value of technology and economy, it is easy to transfer the low -end products of the industrial chain.Laying behind technology is not a simple technical issue.
Six is the foreign trade subsidy policy is a hammer to buy and sell.In January and February of this year, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Suzhou, and Ningbo orders for the manufacturing base decreased sharply, with a decrease of more than 50%.China Foreign Trade Engine has always relying on the government to step on the fuel door and lead a state -owned dependent enterprise that has been ordered by the government.The government's housekeeping ability is to inspire state -owned enterprises to do things with preferential policies such as export subsidies and preferential policies such as land and taxes.State -owned enterprises rely on subsidies and preferential policies to defeat high -priced capitalist private companies at ultra -low prices in the international market.
State -owned enterprises have no innovation capabilities, no government care, and there is no ability to participate in international competition with their own technological innovation skills and win market respect.Big and not strong, this is the fate of Chinese foreign trade enterprises.Taking electric vehicles as an example, from scratch, it can be made into an industry that can match real estate, but technological progress cannot keep up.Therefore, at the price war, Tras was still full of money, and Chinese electric vehicles were bloody.
Seventh, urbanization and real estate dividends are not there.Last year, the urbanization rate of China was 65.22%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the end of the previous year.It looks good, but the 300 million migrant workers with no urban hukou are listed as the statistics of the permanent population base.Migrant workers are urban guerrillas and work everywhere.Today, the manufacturing industry is shrinking, the factory closed down, and the city has no seats of migrant workers. The 300 million migrant workers are going to take away.In this way, the urbanization rate is destined to plummet.Therefore, the urbanization of China itself is a pseudo -proposition.
Urbanization has been done
The so -called urbanized engine is to build more houses, sell more houses, and make more land money.Unfortunately, the Chinese salary for this point for more than 20 years, the urbanization dividend of China not only exhausted, but also overdrawn, and the government's sequelae of the chickens and eggs of compatriots must at least affect generations.
Today, real estate has become an unavailable Adou.Foreigners are declining. Last year, about 25%of the Germans evacuated after unblocking in Shanghai, and the French and Italians registered in the Shanghai Consulate also decreased by 20%respectively.Shanghai has faced the crisis of decline in business confidence and loss of foreign talents.Young people do not get married and have no fertility, and the urban population is also decreasing.The new population can only come from rural areas, but migrant workers have neither money nor urban and rural equivalent and interest policies to enter the city, and do not expect the urban government to place farmers in the city and settle in the city.An ancient town costs about 1 billion yuan to invest, and the cultural tourism economy has invested trillions of dollars nationwide, which is the same, almost all of them.Urbanization has been done, and a large amount of infrastructure is serious.
Eighth is the increase in management costs for small government small society.The Central, provincial, and county regimes of the Chiang era, the central, provincial, cities, regions, counties and township regimes in the Mao era, now the central, provincial, cities, regions, counties, townships, streets, communities, and long -level regimes.Fiscal expenditure is an astronomical figure.65 trillion yuan of local government debt has trapped the local governments and is unwilling to develop debt.Can't afford layoffs, compress public expenses, introduce the open source of administrative charges, and cut people's leek, which has caused chaos.Urban management is not enough in urban violence, and now it has added a new agricultural administrative law enforcement bureau to interfere with farmers' autonomy.This is the same as that of Deng Xiaoping's small government, letting go.
Nine are the country's rich people.The lack of spending power for ordinary people is a fatal issue.The Chinese government is more rich than the US government, but the Chinese people's monthly income of less than 5,000 yuan, about 1.328 billion, accounting for 94.87%of the total population, 5000 monthly incomeOnly about 5%of the yuan, above 10,000 yuan, and more than 100,000 yuan, which is a lot shorter than the American people.Nowadays, the Chinese people are shy and have no consumption ability, and it is almost impossible to expect the internal cycle.
Ten is the risk of depreciation of the house.Most of Chinese assets are real estate assets, and they are very strange.China has a vast region and a large population, but it is concentrated in first -tier cities such as Beishangguangshen, which is absolutely a few, and the distribution is very unreasonable.The trouble is that China's first -tier cities are export -oriented economies. With the decoupling of China and the United States and the United States' re -industrialization, foreign trade orders have decreased sharply, the underlying revenue has decreased sharply, the high -end population evacuation, the fiscal shrinks sharply, and the civil servants are forced to reduce their salary.Coincidentally, the population of Beijing and Shanghai has a negative growth, while others may grow or slow down.The dual -industry and population target is ominous.
Eleven is the end of the golden age of bank huge profits.Excessive money printing is a double -edged sword, which directly causes the exchange rate uncertainty, except for the speculation, is not conducive to the development of the real economy.Unmanned loans, banks can't survive.The demand for strong currency supply and disadvantaged entities is the scourge of the money printing economy.
Twelve is the internationalization of RMB.It is a good thing to pursue the internationalization of RMB, but in the golden age, it has been struggling for eight years. All cards have finished settlement international share, which only accounts for 2.15%, which is too far from the United States, Japan and Europe, and the cost of superiority is too high!Today ChatGPT and chips have become a symbol of Western Industrial Revolution 5.0, while China's economy has shrunk, the total economic volume has declined, and asset depreciation is a high probability event.Two things are superimposed, the internationalization of the renminbi will not be better than now.
The Chinese economy is at the end of the crossbow, and more and more middle class is nostalgic for the Hu Zhao era.This year, the United States has passed the People's Republic of China that it is not a developing country law; China has believed in the prosperity of China and has become the dream of the boss, and now it is not a developed country.In fact, the so -called 21st century is the Chinese Epoch Times in the Chinese century and 2015. It is a misjudgment of contemporary elites including the Nobel Prize winner of the United States Nobel Economics Award.Hu Angang, the dean of the National Intelligence Research Institute of China, "China Comprehensive Beyond the United States", is just a doodle for Stiglitz theory.
None of the country's developed is not the result of deep cultivation of political systems and basic research, and then the result of the industrial revolution.History has never been able to expand the economy without any resource conditions without any wayward power.
The biggest incident of the 21st century is the end of globalization and geopolitical rise, and China cannot have the opportunity to "change space with time".The international game must be rely on strength. The urgent work is to solve the problem that Dengqi or the road is to take the road.At least we must solve the three major problems of protecting private property, the rule of law replacement of human governance, and the banned people's leeks.
The author is a retired economist in Sichuan China
