Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
Economic Daily Theory
U.S. Treasury Minister Yellen on the 16th warned that economic sanctions on Russia and other countries would bring risks to the dominant position of the US dollar in the world because the sanctions countries are actively seeking to replace the dollar currency.Yellen, the former chairman of the United States Federal Reserve and the current financial minister, has always been confident in the US dollar status. This tone has begun to loosen. It is believed that it is related to the recent "going to the US dollar" that has appeared around the world and has been prosperous.
The trend of"Go to the US dollar" is specifically reflected in more and more countries decided to abandon the US dollar when bilateral trade, and switched to settlement with local currency.After the French President Macron visited China a few days ago, he advocated that the European Union should pursue strategic autonomy. France should not be the vassal of the United States. Although it has not obviously touched the US dollar, the subtext of the US and the US dollar hegemony has been exposed.Brazilian President Lula, who visited China later, was more direct. He attended the former President of the BRICS Bank "New Development Bank" in Shanghai to attend the former President of BRICS Bank in Shanghai.Use US dollars? Why not renminbi as a currency exchange in the world? Why can't our BRICS banks use our own currency to provide loans to these countries? "The US dollar seems to be the target of criticism overnight.
The dollar is like Zhou Tianzi in the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period. After the Zhou Dynasty entered the Spring and Autumn Period in 19800, the authority of the hegemonic authority began to shake.Among the heroes, the earliest climate was the yen, followed by the euro, but so far, it has not been able to successfully challenge or replace the US dollar.Now all parties are concerned about RMB, but obviously only see a little bit.According to statistics from the Global Bank of Financial Telecommunications Association (SWIFT), in January this year, the US dollar still includes about 85%of financial transactions in the world, with only 4.6%.
The reason why the US dollar hegemony is loose, in fact, there are three influencing factors such as far, near; and future uncertainty.Far because it refers to the long -term non -monetary discipline in the United States.Since the United States announced the decoupling with gold on August 15, 1971, it has the only monopolized banknote printing right in the world.The change is even more intensified, countries around the world have been harmed, and resentment has continued to accumulate.
Recent causes, which is pointed out by Yellen, sanctions on some countries including Russia, so that all countries are afraid of the United States' sanctions against the United States as weapons, especially sanctions include frozen or confiscatedThe US dollar assets of the sanctioned countries have made countries even more fear, and they have chosen the "de -US dollar" risk aversion method.
The third is Yellen's problem of expansion of US debt.Yellen wrote to the leader of the Parliament on the 13th that the federal debt had reached the upper limit, and the Ministry of Finance had begun to take special measures to avoid government payment of breach of contract.Any behavior that does not fulfill the obligation to pay for is a breach of contract, which will not only trigger economic recession, but also cause debt rating to reduce, weaken the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.
Due to the far superimposition and the near -reasoning of the far, plus the uncertain debt letter breach factor, the US dollar hegemony has finally begun to loosen. Once these situations appear, it is difficult to reverse, and the difference is only fast or slow.
As the latest currency challenging the US dollar hegemony, the RMB has a more favorable situation than the Japanese yen and the euro.Three factors, such as near, and debt are getting closer to the limit or critical point.However, the probability of Renminbi will eventually replace the US dollar to become new international currencies is not absolutely affirmative.
The world's first argument in the world's global argument occurred in the Bretton Forest City Conference in 1944. The British chief representative and world -renowned economist Kainez opposed the currency of any sovereign country as an international currency, becauseThe sovereignty state must have its monetary policy standing on the stance of its own country, and logically may not be compatible or consistent with the global overall interests.However, as the end of World War II was about to end, the comprehensive national strength and international prestige of the United States had override the United Kingdom. Kaidis's outstanding opinions arrived in international reality.The foresight of Ince.
In this sense, as the sovereign currency of a country, RMB is naturally not the most ideal international currency.However, if a change of angle, China's official leading countries have been committed to researching and developing digital renminbi, which has also launched a wide range of experiments. Digital currencies that can be more trustworthy in science and technology may be a new direction for reconstruction of international currency order in the future.In other words, the renminbi still has a relative advantage.
