Social Act: CPTPP considers the opportunity of the mainland to enter Taiwan?

Source: Taiwan Economic Daily

Economic Daily Society

The Chinese mainland economy is now facing the crisis of declining foreign capital and a small growth. Although the Statistics Bureau announced the growth rate of an annual growth rate of 4.5%in the first quarter, this is mostly due to domestic demand, and the growth of foreign trade is not as good as expected.The annual growth rate of the price index CPI was 1.3%, but it fell from the previous month, especially in March, the CPI was only 0.7%, and the industrial product export price index PPI, the annual growth rate was 2.5%.Everyone began to worry about whether economic atrophy.

Recently, Wang Shouwen, the representative and deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce of the Ministry of Commerce of the mainland, proposed to join the CPTPP at the blower., Other goals, such as attracting foreign capital, changing economic constitution, and strengthening export, they will get water.

This is not only verbal declaration. Recently, Beijing has banned the import of barley imports with Australia to achieve the favor of Australia when bilateral CPTPP consultation in the future. When Japanese foreign factor Lin Fang was visiting Beijing, the official reception was broken.And as well as the related to Japan to agree with the Chinese mainland of China.

The reasons for the favor of the mainland are clear, as Wang Shouwen said, which means that consumers of CPTPP member states have increased three times, which is a huge market access opportunity.RCEP) members, joining CPTPP will be beneficial to regional economic integration and the stable and efficient supply chain of the industrial chain.

Recent research made by Shandong University of Science and Technology shows that after the addition of CPTPP in mainland China, GDP will increase by 2.9%, and other countries with RCEP, GDP will increase by 7%, which is no wonderThe country especially supports mainland China.

But adding CPTPP is not only an economic issue, but it is more important to be a political issue.

The current new CPTPP membership members must also consider the application of mainland China after talking to the United Kingdom. The mainland has applied 20 months ago and cannot be dragged down again.If the mainland enters the meeting, it will inevitably be a cup of Ge Taiwan to enter the meeting, which is also a tricky issue that must be considered together.

Although the Trump administration has withdrawn from the TPP that has been negotiated for many years, it is impossible for the Bayeng government to join the CPTPP after the rename.Support mainland China to join the WTO, but it cannot change the physique of state -owned enterprises. It regrets that on the occasion of the US -China hegemony, if mainland China has added the most advanced trading group CPTPP, it will be as similar, and the United States will inevitably stop it.

Taiwan ’s foreign economic and trade strategy has always been piled up, and it has not changed now. On the 19th, Cai Yingwen mentioned in the Presidential Palace when he met with the chairman of the United States Association in Taiwan on the 19th.Various dialogue mechanisms, including the "Taiwan -American 21st Century Trade Initiative", and contacted the signing of the "Avoid Double Tax Course Agreement" through the "Taiwan and the United States to avoid double taxation agreements" to provide more niche for enterprises on both sides.President Tsai specifically pointed out that the next step will seek the possibility of signing a comprehensive free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States.

In other words, Taiwan's strategy is to rely on the United States. Using the United States as a stepping stalls. Once you can sign FTA with the United States, you can rely on the assistance of the United States to join other regional trade organizations.Preferential treatment of regional trade organizations as the United States.

The United States is still the hegemon of global trade. It has begun to change. Europe, mainland China and the United States have gradually formed a three -point trade force. When the competition between each other intensifies, only one of the treasures will lose the other sides of the other sides.Trade interests.In particular, India is currently the fastest growing economic area, but RCEP and CPTPP, the two largest regional economies in this place, are not members in the United States. Mainland China has joined RCEP. Now she is applying for CPTPP.Join, I am afraid it will be blocked.

Any agreement to reduce tariffs, today's political atmosphere is considered taboos, and both parties dare not mention. The United States now restarts the stove and establishes the "Indo -Pacific Economic Architecture" (IPEF), but whether the structures of each country have the structure of this structureIt is affordable and wrapped in the same way, suspecting whether it is reduced to political slogans.

Even so, the United States' support for Taiwan's joining trade group is extremely limited. Taiwan has not yet received a signing with the United States to join the IPEF. The actual reason is that if Taiwan is a member, countries are concerned about Beijing's opposition and dare not participate in participating in.Therefore, there are other agreements with Taiwan to deal with parallel architecture.

Seeing that CPTPP is going to start handling the conference in mainland China, and the United States is not in CPTPP, it cannot be dominated. Is there a chance to join CPTPP?