Mr. Guo Bingyun's "Winter General" has not appeared in a post (Lianhe Zaobao Speech Edition on January 25). Talking about whether the "Winter General" that has appeared many times in history will help Russia to completely reverse the war situation.Now winter has passed, and this issue has reached the summary moment.In terms of European military history, in 1812, in the Soviet -German war in 1941, the invaders had faced the severe test of the Russian winter.However, these two wars are not enough to prove that the Russian army will win in winter.
As far as the Northern War is concerned, on November 30, 1700, Charles XII (also translated Carl 12) led the Swedish army to defeat the Russian army in the Nelva.The Campaign of Nelva was an important victory in Sweden in the early days -and Nalva and its nearby had entered the winter at the time.In addition to the Northern War, the Northern War, the 1812 Russian France War, and the Second World War, there was actually the First World War.On January 31, 1915, during World War I, the Winter Battle of Lake Matsuri (or the Battle of Lake Matsuri Lake) broke out.Beginning on February 7, the Germans rushed to the Russian army with a severe cold, and the Russian army, who was inadequate and trained, was quickly defeated.This winter battle caused huge losses to the Tsarist troops.
It can be seen that the Russian army may not be able to win in winter battles.In 1812, the victory of the Moscow from 1941 to 1942 should not be regarded as a general case, nor can it be preserved that the Russian army would win in this winter operation.
Guo Wen raised the following questions: "Why can Russia win the" Winter Winter 'against defeat for many times in history, but this time cannot be' to make the law "?" Regarding this question, there are three answers he given: First, Russia is military in the military in the military in the military.There is no support for allies in the economy; the second is that Russia does not have a home advantage; the third is that Russia has lost help, only White Ross, North Korea, Venezuela, etc. clearly support it.The first and third points can actually be discussed.
In the Northern War, the Seven-year War (1756-1763), and the two world war periods, Russia (or the Soviet Union) was not isolated.In the Crimean War (1853-1856), the then European power Prussia did not destroy its relationship with Tsarist Russia, and Tsarist Russia was not almost completely isolated like Russia in Europe today.Losting help is indeed an important factor that hinders Russia's victory.However, although Russia lacks the support of allies in military and economically (White Ross should be regarded as an allies), economic relations with China and other countries, and even specific military relations, play a role in continuing war.Wang Wenbin, a Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, once said that China and Russia are not allies and are better than allies.
As for the problem of home combat, this battlefield is in Ukraine. At first glance, Russia lacks its home advantage, and it is not true that carefully analyzing.At present, the war is mainly in Donbas, and Donbas is loyal to Russia.Before the outbreak of the war in February last year, the pro -Russian armed forces controlled parts of Donbas, and Ukraine failed to recover.Ukraine's incomplete possession of the home advantage should be one of the reasons for the long duration of this war.
Regarding why the Russian army failed to reverse the war in Ukraine in winter, it must be added here.More than 130 years ago, Engels pointed out in the article by the Russian Tsar government's foreign policy: "Russia, which is almost impossible to attack in terms of defense, is weak and weak in offensive.In terms of weaknesses.
Guo Wen also proposed that after the Russian and French war, Russia became a European power.This view can be discussed.
Late to Yekaterina II (1762-1796), Russia was already a veritable European power.Engels once pointed out that the monarchs of Austria and Prussia (then the European power) were "put themselves under the control of the Russian Tsar government" because they participated in the plundering Poland -this was happening during the Yakaterina II.Some researchers believe that Peter Emperor who won the victory of the Northern War made Russia from inland countries a coastal European power.New Cambridge World Modern History mentioned that in 1716, the Royal Yearbook published by France first included Russia in the list of European powers.
It is assumed that Russia's failure in this battle in Putin's rule, whether it will return to the previous era of Peter Emperor (he gives Russia to the "window to the West"), it is worth continuing to observe.
The author is a time -effective judge, a doctor of history
