"I suggest that experts do not make suggestions", have appeared on Weibo hot search in December 2022. There are also Spring Festival couplets of "Ruixue Three -foot Buried Professor, Chunlei split experts" on the Internet.This Spring Festival couplet may be fake, but it still reflects the people's resistance to experts.The thunderstorms of the representatives of the Chinese People's Congress are similar to some experts.

Taking the Ukrainian war as an example, the prediction error rate of Chinese experts is more than 90 %.It is not necessary to mention the pre -judgment mistakes before and early the war, which can be described as 100 % of the error rate.Why do experts make mistakes?

First of all, it turns out that no matter which subject field, experts have a probability event.In the predicted future, no matter how tall the predicted model is, it is essentially to speculate in the future through existing theories and data. Unfortunately, the existing theory may not be correct, and the existing data may not be comprehensive.There are many factors that predict the future.If Ukraine President Zelezzki escaped like the President of Afghanistan, the Russian and Ukraine War may have ended in accordance with the expectations of Russian President Putin.Alternatively, Putin launched a war during Trump's President of the United States, and the West's aid for Ukraine may be very different.Some factors are difficult to predict and quantify, such as fighting will.

Secondly, many so -called "experts" are actually pseudo -experts.Internet celebrities are basically not experts, and even those who have experts may not be real experts.Taking crown disease as an example, an expert who has been criticized by netizens has long been in administrative positions. He has neither clinical experience in crown disease nor to study academic papers in the crown disease. It is essentially pseudo -expert.

Once again, experts have misunderstandings and non -academic factors, which performs very obvious during the crown disease.Some experts have become spokespersons for interest groups.Of course, there are also people who have made a context of the experts and unjust experts.

The following I want to focus on is that the preset position is the main reason why experts make mistakes.Because with the preset position, it will selectively obtain the facts, information, and even false news that conforms to your own position; and the information that exclude everything that is left with the preset position, so that you cannot do it.There is a preset position, which is equivalent to the first research conclusion, and then selectively find research materials.

Taking the Ukrainian war as an example, the main reason why many experts have a high error rate are the stance of pro -Russia.Due to space limited, there will be no right to discuss the right or wrong of the pro -Russian position.Those who hold their own Russia will only selectively receive information that is beneficial to Russia.In most cases, news information is often true and false.Taking the news of "Ukraine Catch Zhuang Ding" as an example, pro -Russian will be convinced.Unfortunately, the vast majority of the battlefield information, including reporters, cannot be verified on the spot.

Similarly, those who hold a pro -American standpoint must be incomplete and not objective for the analysis of Sino -US relations.Sino -US relations are still heavy in the mountains (Lianhe Zaobao · February 7), which clearly reflects the author of the author of Mr. Weida.As mentioned in the article, "instead of threatening Taiwan by the military warships across the three forks, it is better to save these military expenses and sponsor the poor areas in mainland China and children who need to go to school."In fact, you can also ask this: Why doesn't Taiwan save huge military expenses to further improve people's livelihood?According to the proportion of military expenses and the per capita military expenditure, Taiwan is still higher than the mainland.Considering the huge difference in volume, Taiwan and the mainland are much wise than crazy buying weapons.

Mr. Weida selectively ignores a basic fact: the United States is the country with the highest military expenditure in the world.From the perspective of customers, the greatest value of consulting experts is objective neutrality.Mr. Weida criticized Zhao Lijian, and the author did not agree with the wolf diplomacy, but the United States was from then President Trump, to officials and members of all levels.The malicious attacks of lawmakers at all levels of the United States were neglected by Mr. Weida's selectivity.Facing the abuse of the United States, can China only scold and spit on their own?

The article mentioned that "the situation in the Taiwan Strait is not too peaceful for a day, and Sino -US relations will not be effectively improved in one day." The meaning of the Taiwan Strait is caused by the mainland side, which is obviously inconsistent with the facts.Isn't cross -strait relations good during Ma Ying -jeou's administration?Sino -US relations are indeed very important. China needs to improve Sino -US relations, but it is by no means at the expense of core interests such as Taiwan.Japan and Germany, which defeated the country in the Second World War, are not in South Korea, which was rescued by the United States; China cannot improve the relationship with the United States at the expense of self -waste martial arts and the first prices of the United States.Diplomacy serves national interests, not the opposite.

Weida also believes that China should abandon negative assets such as Russia and North Korea (the US presidential election preheat and Sino -US relations joint Zaobao · March 27).In today's US McCarthy's resurrection and anti -China has become a politically correct environment, even if China participates in the Western sanctions against Russia, Sino -US relations will not be substantially improved. Instead, China increases two heavyweight opponents.Severely worsen China's safe environment.

Russia and North Korea are independent countries, and China has limited influence on its military and foreign policy.In other words, Russia is not the assets of China.China and Russia are not all ally relations. As the Chinese ambassador to the European Union Fu Cong said, the so -called Sino -Russian relations did not stop, it was just a rhetoric.Although China and Russia do not make alliances, they cannot turn friends into enemies.After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, China -Russia friendship has completely resolved China for more than 200 years and from a military threat from the north.The Ukrainian war is essentially a conflict between the United States and Russia. It is not selected to stand on the side and maintain neutrality to meet China's national interests.

The following is a suggestion for experts.The first is to comprehensively study history.Some people think that China and Russia need to hold a group heating in the United States, hoping that Russia will win the war.Looking back at history, the Soviet Union defeated Japan during World War II, but caused China to lose the region of Outer Mongolia and Tang Nuwu Lianghai.As soon as the end of World War II ended, Stalin fought bloodlessly by the Chinese military and civilians, and dragged the fact that the Japanese army's main force was forced to force the Republic of China government to recognize the independence of Outer Mongolia on the grounds that the China -Soviet needs buffer zone.After the independence of Outer Mongolia, Tang Nuwu Lianghai area was lost.The independent referendum of Outer Mongolia was exactly the same as today's Wudong referendum.If the Japanese and Russian War won, Northeast China would have lost.

History has proven that China and Russia have never been a cold relationship with lips, and national interests are not consistent.The defeat of Russia may not be good for China, and the defeat may not be good for China.Experts need to study the lessons of Russia in the Ukrainian war, and how China responds to the international situation of Russia once defeated.In particular, after the defeat of the Russian war, it takes the sacrifice of China's interests as a bargaining, in exchange for the West to cancel the sanctions against Russia; the Russians are still in the bones of the West.The research of the Gulf War has promoted the modernization of China's defense.The study of the Russian army's corruption, light enemy, insufficient preparation, and low levels of informationization will be of great benefit to the progress of the Chinese army affected by the Soviet Union and Russia.

China has no intention of challenging the US hegemony, hoping to improve the relationship with the United States, and the two benefits.However, history has proven that the relationship will be harmonious only when there is a common enemy.Weida believes that China deviates from reform and opening up, which has caused Sino -US relations to deteriorate.This intentionally or unintentionally ignored two historical facts: one was that China and the United States broke the ice during the Cultural Revolution; the other was that Bush's 2001 in 2001, and made a statement with China.The evil occurred 20 years ago.Sino -US ice breaking is to jointly respond to the Soviet Union. After the Sino -US relations after September 11, the improvement of Sino -US relations is to jointly cope with terrorism.Ideological form is only packaging, and national interests are fundamental.

Second, we must respect common sense.Some experts suggest that the reason for becoming a strange thing is because of violation of common sense.The conclusion of the research on social sciences is not the right to contrary to common sense.Individual experts say that they can martial arts in Taiwan within 24 hours, which is obviously contrary to common sense.Cross -sea combat is the most difficult in all offensive operations; more than, the real military power of Taiwan may be stronger than Ukraine.Once again, I want to eat the fireworks on earth and get out of the book. Without investigations, there is no right to speak.When I can't tell the truth, I would rather not tell.

Fourth, experts do not cross the border.The surgery industry has specialized attacks, interlaced like a mountain, and no universal experts.After leaving your professional field, he is no longer an expert.cultureConsulting experts to talk about international politics, we must be prepared to be criticized.Internet celebrity scholars from a certain international relationship, talking about international relations and the leadership of the Russian and Ukraine War, but talking about Chinese football, real estate and other issues are speechless.

Finally, avoid preconceived preset positions, do not replace rational analysis with emotion.Unfortunately, in the field of humanities and social sciences, researchers have no preset positions and emotional tendencies, which is almost impossible.Therefore, experts will continue to make mistakes.

The author is a professor at Renmin University of China