Source: Wind Media "Wind Review"
According to the data released by the United Nations on Wednesday, India has surpassed China and became the country with the largest population in the world. For a while, the dispute between the dragon (China) elephant (India) became the topic.However, the pragmatic perspective, "Dragon Elephant Contest" does not need to pay too much attention. The "big drama" in the next 10-20 years is still "Dragon Eagle (American) fighting."
According to the "Population instrument panel" of the United Nations, India's population has exceeded 1.428 billion, slightly higher than that of more than 1.425 billion in China.India's population will surpass China this year. It has been announced last year. This time, according to the number of the representative disk of the population, it is even more important in India to become the world's largest country (population), and looking forward to the future.Officials from the Population Fund said: "India's population growth momentum will remain 20 or 30 years."At the same time, China has grown for the first time in nearly 61 years last year.
Some analysis of this is based on national strength and geographical politics. It is believed that India's population surpasses China, and it will have a profound impact on the focus of the world and geopolitical wrestling.The time for world factories, consumer markets, and even economic scale.
In terms of national strength and geopolitical influence, India was originally a regional hegemony in South Asia. In order to curb China's geopolitical influence, in the United States, it was a big Indian, Japan, and Australia.It is considered to bless India's geopolitical influence, which will not change in the short term.
As for industrial strength, the participation of global supply keys, replacing China's world factory status, and surpassing economic strength, India has indeed left the so -called "Indian growth" in the early years in recent years.), The Sino -US trade war and scientific and technological wars give India to have the opportunity to attract companies that are to decentralized risks to invest. Of courseProduction, it is precisely this week Apple CEO Cook visited India and met Indian Prime Minister Modi.Last year, the economic growth rate of more than 6%in India also far exceeded China's 3%.
Most of them are optimistic that India's future chasing Chinese will mention that India's population dividends compare with the aging population of China.According to statistics, India is 28 years old and 65 -year -old population accounts for 7%of the total population, and the population under the age of 25 is more than 40%. This is a very beautiful population structure.ten years.In contrast, the median population of China's population is 39 years old and over 65 years old accounts for 14.2%. If you look at the age of 60 or more, it accounts for 18.9%, and this proportion will increase rapidly."Being rich first."
Although there is a favorable factors that have changes in population and external environment, "transcendence and growth" is not "taken for granted", and favorable factors may also become negative factor -a huge young population and demographic dividend is beneficial to benefitFactors, but if they cannot create sufficient employment opportunities in quality and quantity, they will become negative factor; backward infrastructure, deep -rooted surname system, relatively backward education and public health, and political and cultural factors will be.In the future, continue to grow and enhance the level of industrial and economic physique.
Especially the "control economy" that has been in India for many years, although after the economic reform in the 1990s, it seems to have greatly relaxed the control. Economic and commercial behavior no longer requires government approval, but comparedThere are still many and heavy bureaucrats, and these factors may restrict their long -term development.On the other hand, the Chinese population is surpassed by India, and it does not mean anything, let alone whether the Indian economy surpasses China in the future. As long as you think about the U.S. for a century of global hegemony, you know that the impact of the population is limited.
From a certain level of perspective, the so -called "dragon elephant dispute", the Indian economy is going to surpass China, it is still early, and it will not happen in these decades, because the economic scale of China and India is not the same asOne level is on.In terms of economic scale, last year China was $ 17.7 trillion (23 trillion yuan), India was 3.17 trillion dollars, India had only 18%of China, and the average national income (GDP) was similar.19%of China.Indian manufacturing accounts for about 15%of GDP, and only half of China is more than half of China. It needs to be considered a considerable time.
Therefore, instead of paying attention to the dispute between the dragon elephant, it is better to pay attention to the real Dragon Eagle fight in the occurrence, China and the United States have played from trade war to scientific and technological warfare, and it still looks like it.Whether to break free of various stuck necks, sanctions, targets, etc. is really related to the changes in global geopolitical influence and economic and industrial dominance in the next decades; and this dragon eagle fight is actually related to the dragon elephant battle.As a result, India not only benefited from geopolitical influence, but also benefited from all aspects of economy, industry, and attracting foreign capital.
