Source: Hong Kong 01

Author: Ye Dehao

Bakhmut, a small city with 70,000 people before the war, and now less than 5,000 people, has been against the Russian army's seven -month fierce attack, and has become the most continued to continue since the Russian and Ukraine War.Long -term single war.Since 2023, Bach Mutter has been the "fastest loss" city of the Ukraine. However, this year has been over a quarter. In the face of the Russian military aid, the Ukraine still insisted on not losing.Wars observer have been asking a question: Why do both Russia and Ukraine pay countless dead injuries for cities with little strategic significance?

In a Associated Press on March 28, Ukraine President Volodymyr ZELENSKY pointed out that this is a political issue that thinks how to fall down in Bachmart, and Putin will "to the West, to the West,"To his society, to China, and Iran's victory" "If he feels blood -he is weak to us -he will always advance, advance, and advance."

Zelezzki has always packed Bachmut as a "fortress" representing Ukraine's resistance will; "Bachurut is still there" has also become the slogan of the Ukraine.The Ukrainian flag with the name of the Bachsmart front line was sent to the U.S. Parliament; he himself also kissed the front line to inspire morale.

Although Bachurut's lost, Ukraine still has multiple defensive positions in the west, and will not lose the west of Donetsk Oblast, which is still under Ukraine, but Bachurut'sFalling will undoubtedly cause a considerable impact on the hearts of Ukraine.

As early as March, Bach Murd had been surrounded by three sides, and Ukraine once reported that it would retreat in an orderly manner, and NATO also made the city's expectations of the decline of the city within a few days.But in the end, Zerrenki decided to send people to reinforce the attack, against the attack of the Russian army, and sometimes there was a situation where each other.

During the Winter Army in November last year, I proposed that Ukraine had a "peace window" and has been driving the Russian generals from the U.S. Army to the United States Staff Joint Meeting Chairman of the U.S. Army, Mark Milley 3 3On the 29th, a optimistic assessment of the Ukrainian army was made on the 29th.He claimed that the Russian army was "damaged by a large number of personnel in Bachomut" and pointed out that the Ukrainian army was making "very effective regional defense."

"In the past 20 or 21 days, the Russians have not even made a little progress, so (the war has become) Russians' slaughter-fest ...Kreminna) to Kherson's entire front line ... Russians have not achieved their strategic goals. "

"I think Russia's offense has begun a period of time, and those who have been intermittently have no motivation and success in their expectations."

Although Milly's description is a bit exaggerated -in fact, in the past three weeks, the Russian army has also made slight progress around Bachurut, such as Wagner Group.A industrial zone -but its slow progress in the Russian army and heavy losses seem to be in line with the facts.

The update of the British Department of Defense on the 29th shows that the Russian attack has decreased compared to the past few weeks; the leader of the Walgner Corps, Yevgeny Prigozhin, also said a little pessimistic on the same day, "If Wargner private military companyHe died in the Bakhmut meat grinding machine and was with the Ukrainian armed forces (with all the time), so that we have completed our historical role. "

For Zellezki's logic of Bachmurut, many analysis believes that its purpose is to contain and consume the Russian army, and to pave the way for Ukraine's expected big counterattacks in the early summer of this year.And people generally believe that Ukraine's counterattack route will go south from Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and cut off the land traffic from the northern part of the Ashuka Sea that directly connects to Crimea from Russia.In fact, on the 29th, the Ukraine cracked down on the railway power supply facilities of Melitopol, a Himas multi -tube rocket launcher (Himars).

However, the offensive from Zapolo was as early as the Russian army's estimation, and the latter has deployed heavy soldiers and strict defense.If the Ukrainian army really did not expect to launch an attack here, even if there is a new European main battle tank support, it is likely to fall into another stuck with the Russian army.When European and American military public opinion is increasingly increasingly regarded as the war of this year's Ukraine's counterattack as "unsuccessful", the Ukraine who failed to play obvious results may face the situation of being forced to cut the ground.

Other counterattack routes that have been discussed in extensive discussion, such as counterattacks in Hermuson, or the advancement of Kharkiv-Lugansk in Harkov-Lugansk in Northeast China.There is no "surprising victory" advantage like the latter.

Recently, there is a small group of military observers who have begun to imagine a counterattack route that can be used to win with strange soldiers.The situation where the Russian army was surrounded by the city on three sides of the northeast of the Russian army, and even retired from the Russian army to the east.Oleksandr Syrskyi, the top commander of the Ukraine ground forces, said on March 23 that the Bachurut Russian army was weaker.) The same ", it seems to be implying that Ukrainian may use Bachmut as a counterattack place.

Just as the Russian army occupied Bachmut, there are still many places to be guarded to the west. Even if the Ukraine has disintegrated the Russian army's surrounding trend of Bachmut, there are still many Russian troops to the east to east.Perseverance.Therefore, the Ukraine's victory here will not objectively reverse the war.

However, if the Russian army has continued to focus on the main attack in the past six months, and the number of damage daily damage is as high as hundreds of front lines, it will end up without success, and it will even be pushed for several kilometers by the black army, which will cause the Russian army and the hearts of the people.The severe frustration -especially the results of the war in Russia for more than a year are far from expected.

Under this situation, Putin may be more likely to accept more favorable negotiation conditions for Ukraine.The sovereignty issues in the Yadong Russian region and commitments will not be added to NATO.

This set of high -risk operations, maybe it is the way that the battlefield reality can allow the fastest way to end the war at this moment.