Source: Financial Association

Almost all market participants have been guessing in the past few weeks that who will be the next Domuo card in this European and American banking crisis -there are many people focusing on other regional banks, and many big leaders in the industry.Worried about commercial real estate.

However, it is really fragile now, but it seems not very eye -catching, perhaps a lot of small and medium -sized enterprises in Europe and the United States!

Different companies that are commonly issued fixed interest rate debts and are almost influenced by short -term interest rate fluctuations. SMEs seriously rely on banks to make direct financing. Therefore, their impact on the shock wave of the banking industry crisis can be felt in real time ...…

Although the higher interest rates and potential default risks faced by SMEs in Europe and the United States, it may not have attracted the attention of investors to a large extent -especially when the performance of large enterprises is quite good, but some of them are some, but someMarket participants have begun to find any signs of tensions in this field.

Enterprise financing is becoming more and more difficult

SMEs are critical to the economy on both sides of the Atlantic.According to EU Commission estimates, SMEs have hired about 100 million people in the European Union, accounting for more than half of the EU economy.

But now, in the context of the central bank's rapid interest rate hikes and credit tightening, the days of European and American SMEs are obviously difficult to.

Jefu Rui analyst estimates that the average interest rate of bank loans paid by small companies paid by American small companies in 2022 rose from about 5%to 7.6%, and it may reach about 9.5%in the middle of this year.

The latest bank loan survey of the European Central Bank shows that before the banking industry was under pressure this month, the credit standards of corporate loans or credit quotas in the fourth quarter of 2022 reported by the banking zone bank had tightened significantly.This is the biggest change since the debt crisis of the euro zone in 2011.

Elisa Belgacem, a high -level credit strategist of generali Investments, said, "In the current worsening environment," big is beauty ', and small companies will feel interest and energy costs, supply chain interruptions, and actual disposable income revenue of the family.The greatest pressure brought. "

Guy Miller, chief market strategist at Zurich Insurance Group, said that when you think of all small and medium -sized enterprises that rely on bank financing and recycling loans in Europe and the United States, the funds are often dependent on ownership financing.Become a major problem."

British companies are the most dangerous?

Due to the weakened growth, double -digit inflation, and the increase in interest rates of the UK, British SMEs are currently considered particularly fragile.

A index prepared by

Weil Gotshal Manges shows that the predicament of British companies has risen further in the quarter of February, reaching the highest in the early 2020 epidemic.

Manx Financial Group's recent survey pointed out that in the past two years, 22%of British SMEs that need external financing cannot obtain financing due to high funding costs, long processing time and lack of flexibility.

Douglas Grant, CEO of the agency, said that although many small and medium -sized enterprises have locked the fixed period of interest rates to limit the risk of further interest rate hikes, many small and medium -sized enterprises have not done so.What small companies can expect now, only the interest rates are now in the peak.

As a response to the recent interest rate hikes of the British Bank, Martin MCTAGUE, chairman of the British Enterprise Federation, said, "inflation is bringing huge losses to small companies, and they are more likely to be rising than large companies.The impact of investment cost. The government needs to prove that it stands on the side of a small business. "

The disadvantaged group begins to show

In fact, as early as the fermentation of the banking industry's crisis in this round, the rating agency's S & P was expected at the end of last year that by the end of last year, in September this year, the breach of contract in the United States and Europe may double, and it will reach 3.75%And 3.25%.

Biz2credit, a small company's online financing platform, showed that in February, the loan approval rate for small companies in large US banks in February has decreased for nine consecutive months, and the corporate loan approval rate of small banks has also declined simultaneously.In recent weeks, small US banks have exported $ 119 billion (S $ 158 billion) funds, and they were panicked after the closure of the Silicon Valley banks.

Biz2credit CEO Rohit Arora said he expects that small companies will become more difficult now, and the biggest challenge is that interest rates may maintain a high position for a period of time.Interest rates are unlikely to decrease by next year.

As the cost of financing has soared and it is increasingly difficult to obtain, the risk of surge in breach of contract is becoming more and more obvious.

Macquarie Asset Management fixed income global supervisor Brett Lewthwaite said, "As the liquidity is exhausted, some seemingly special small problems will begin to appear. The vulnerable groups are beginning to be revealed ..."