In the government work report in 2023, the Chinese government will expand domestic demand as the focus of work in the next stage, and specifically put forward that it is necessary to place restoration and expansion of consumption in priority.From the perspective of short -term economic recovery or long -term development strategy, this move is very necessary.However, there are different opinions on what method to choose to expand domestic demand and boost consumption, which is related to what kind of market economy China wants to build in the future.
The strict clearance policy during the epidemic has led to the decline in consumption of residents.In 2022, the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 0.2%year -on -year, driving the growth rate of GDP (GDP) severely slowed down.As a means of economic recovery, it is urgent to boost consumption.Another focus on the government work report is to attract and use foreign capital to attract and use foreign capital greaterly, which is also closely related to expanding consumption.Since 2016, the scale of foreign sales in China has exceeded exports.In the context of the further intensification of Sino -US confrontation, whether foreign investment is willing to stay in China, it depends to a large extent on whether the domestic market can continue to grow.From a longer -term perspective, the Chinese government has proposed a dual -cycle strategy that uses domestic large cycles as the main body and two cycles promotes each other.Expanding domestic demand and forming a high -quality consumer market is the key factor to ensure the effective implementation of this strategy.
It must be pointed out that restoring and expanding consumption cannot only look forward to the stimulus policy after the epidemic, but also to be solved as a structural problem of China's economy.The GDP proportion of China's final consumption expenditure remains about 60%year -on -year, not only far below developed countries such as the United States and Japan, but also a large gap with developing countries such as India and Vietnam.The consumption expenditures of these countries account for more than 70%of GDP.Why does the 40 -year -old economic growth have not brought a significant improvement in consumption in the national economic structure?
Regarding this issue, there have been two opinions for many years, which also affects two ideas of how to expand consumption.
The first opinion believes that the cake of China's economy is not made enough, and the vitality of the economy has not been fully released.People who hold this view usually attribute the cause of insufficient consumption to the government's involvement in the economy too deep, the resources they have too much, and the proportion of investment led by state -owned enterprises. These have seriously hindered the development of the private economy.It also hinders the distribution of fruit of economic growth to workers.People who identify with this view generally believe that, as a means to expand domestic demand and boost consumption, we should further deepen the reform of state -owned enterprises, encourage the development of the private economy, and activate entrepreneurs' spirit.To achieve this goal, a moderate gap between the rich and the poor is tolerated.
The second point of view is that insufficient consumption is a problem with the distribution of cakes.The income and property distribution of Chinese society have seriously limited the consumption power of low -income people.Regarding the distribution of income, the survey of the research team of Beijing Normal University showed that in 2019, the monthly income of 547 million people in China was less than 1,000 yuan (RMB, about S $ 200, the same below), and the population with a monthly income below 2,000 yuan was as high as 9.64100 million, accounting for nearly 70 % of the total population.
The issue of China's property distribution is even more prominent.According to the latest research by French economist Thomas Piketty, in 2021, China's richest 0.001%of the crowd accounts for about 10%of the country, while the property owned by 50%of the lowest population is only 6%.
People holding the second point of view not only agree with the government's re -distribution through taxes and other means, but also firmly support antitrust.Because the monopoly of large enterprises, especially platform companies, will not only hinder the development of small and medium -sized enterprises, but also cause the informalization of employment form.The majority of small and medium -sized business owners and employees officially hired by enterprises are the main part of the middle class.
The Chinese government proposed a common prosperity in 2021 to prevent the disorderly expansion of capital and rectifying the Internet, real estate, education and training and other industries. It is obviously adopting a second point of view that the problems of China's economy are not distributed.However, the incident is contrary to their wishes, and the severe policies are superimposed to the epidemic and control, which has a great impact on the private economy, and has also led to the general decline in the expectations of entrepreneurs in the future.Therefore, at the end of last year, the government adjusted relevant policies and began to tilt from the first point of view.
In the next stage, which means China should choose to expand domestic demand and boost consumption, I have no intention of making value judgments, but I just want to point out that there are diversified options between efficiency and fairness.The ultimate picture of the market economy you want to pursue.In the final analysis, China needs to answer: In the future, it is hoped to build a society full of vitality, high social liquidity, and tolerance for the rich and poor. It is still necessary to create a middle class as the main body.Growing fruit, more equal society?
The author is the director of the Asian Institute of Economic Research Institute of Japan Trade Promotion Institute
