Source: Taiwan Economic Daily Society
Following the succession of the Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse in the United States, there have been problems in the United States and several regional banks in the United States and Europe, including the first and bank and signature banks.Worried about whether it will be like a global financial tsunami in 2009, a new wave of financial storms will appear.How should the government and the financial sector respond to this wave of financial turmoil.
First of all, the scale of the bank that occurs in this wave of problems is not very large, and its direct impact is actually limited.Especially these banks are different from some investment banks in the United States in 2009. At that time, the financial leverage of the investment banks played a lot. For example, the financial leverage of the Lehman brothers had exceeded 60 times.The amount and number of other financial industries or investors are much worse than the current situation.Secondly, the global financial tsunami in 2009 was due to the rapid rate of interest rate hikes, which made the sub -loan unable to repay debt, which led to a comprehensive collapse of the real estate market in the United States, and then contributed to the influence of derivative financial products, which eventually caused a global financial tsunami.However, a large part of the bank that occurs this time is the result of the bank's own operation and management.
However, this time so many banks have problems, which are still related to the great and rapid interest rate hikes of the Federal Assembly Association and the European Central Bank.According to the experience of 2009, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates rapidly, causing the real estate market to collapse, leading to the sharp decline in price -related securities prices, thereby expanding the scale of the financial tsunami.This time the interest rate increase caused the bond prices held by the bank to plummet, which caused a serious losses of the profit of bond holders, which caused losses to individual banks.Under the circumstances of the deposit households worrying about bank failure, they have proposed cash and crowded; due to limited funds for banks, they announced their failure when the liquidity was insufficient.At present, it seems that the number of related financial products purchased from abroad is limited, so the impact has a small impact.
But the problem of the bank this time is still worthy of vigilance, and it will also be an important indicator of the sound development of the financial industry in the future: First of all, this financial incident is caused by the Federal Mandrement Association's interest rate increases too fast. This is from 2009.The situation is very similar.Therefore, when changing the policy, the government should be cautious, especially the financial policy should have been stable and conservative.Therefore, even in the face of such serious inflation, the government should be more cautious when adjusting interest rates.
Secondly, there are many problems in some banks itself. For example, when buying too many bonds, the proportion of assets is too large. When the interest suddenly rises, the bond prices have fallen sharply, which leads to problems in the bank's financial scheduling.Therefore, stricter financial supervision is definitely necessary.At the same time, the additional first -level capital bonds (AT1) of this problem, although called bonds, one of the clauses requires that the bond can be canceled at any time, resulting in its repayment order even lower than the equity. This is even lower than the equity. This is even lower than the equity. This is even lower than the equity.It is very different from traditional cognition.In the future, when financial institutions sell such bonds, the relevant regulations must be more clearly indicated, so that investors will decide whether to buy.
Third, due to the development of online banks in recent years, depositors can easily transfer deposits to other banks on the Internet, causing the original bank to lack of liquidity.Therefore, some people suggest that the fuse mechanism should be set up in the bank. When the deposit households receive a certain percentage, the bank can temporarily refuse the deposit household's receipt.We think that this suggestion is not appropriate, because the purpose of banks is to provide the liquidity of depositors, and banks should not refuse to receive deposits.A better approach should be that the central bank provides a more liquidity mechanism, so that the banks that have abnormalities can obtain the funds of the central bank's funds in a very short period of time, allowing banks to temporarily pass the risk of being crowded.
In short, although the banks that have problems so far are based on individual reasons, resulting in a small chance of comprehensive financial turmoil, this also shows the importance of financial supervision.On the other hand, when the central bank adjusts the monetary policy, it is the first to be stable to avoid rapid rise.Although the international bank accident has a small impact on Taiwan this time, "the stone of other mountains can attack the wrong", the central bank and the financial management department of Taiwan should still respond with caution.
