Source: Hong Kong Ming Pao Agency Review
The crisis of the European and American banks is not overwhelmed, the problem of Credit Suisse is not a few, and it is the turn of Deutsche Bank. On the one hand, it reflects the fragile market confidence, and on the other hand, it also increases the pressure of stopping interest rate hikes.In the past year, the European and American central banks hurriedly raised interest rates, and Silver Gen tightened the reversal of the market conditions, which constitutes a significant pressure on some banks.There are problems. The financial community hopes that the central bank to abandon the 2%inflation policy goals, and change to 3%or even 4%. However, this will hurt people's livelihood. Disputes such as robbing the poor and the wealth, and the rescue of the market will inevitably rewind.The monetary policy of the European and American central banks has not been explicit. The stability of the banking system is not as expected. The fluctuation of the peripheral situation is unpredictable. Hong Kong needs to be alert to prevent the spillover impact caused by crisis fermentation.
Anti -inflation also supports bank policy contradictions to test the central bank
The Silicon Valley Bank and SIGNATURE Bank have closed down, cracking down on market confidence, and influenced to Europe. Centennial stores are trapped in Credit Suisse, and Swiss officials are officially involved and eventually acquired by UBS to avoid the "Lehman moment".All parties thought that they could be relieved. However, yesterday, the stock price of Deutsche Bank plummeted by 15%, and the expansion of credit breach rose sharply, but it made people pay attention to whether the European and American bank crisis really eased.Switzerland officially regards CSI as a bank that is "unable to fall". However, the total asset size is only about half of Germany.Similar to Credit, Deutsche Bank was also plagued by scandals such as tax evasion, violations, and poor management a few years ago. It has been losing money for many years. The difference is that Deutsche Bank has launched a large -scale reorganization of open source festivals. Since 2019, it has been profitable for 10 consecutive quarters.The financial situation is not as bad as Credit Suxin, but it is said that there is no problem with German Bank of China.
Deutsche Bank is one of the world's largest bond dealers.One of the main directions of the reorganization of German Bank of China at that time was to reduce the dependence of high -risk investment banking business, increased the proportion of small and medium -sized enterprises credit and retail banking business, and ensured that the financial stability and profitability.The large central bank pumping the Water Totor City has continued to become the biggest source of profit for German Bank of China.At the beginning of last year, major central banks of the United States and Europe tightened the monetary policy, and the market conditions reversed debt prices. The Silicon Valley Bank exploded, which was related to the sharp derogatory value of the bond assets and the customer's worry.Shake market confidence, and his eyes turned to Germany.Since the beginning of this month, the stock price of DeBay has fallen by more than 20 %, and its additional first -level capital (AT1) bonds have fallen sharply, reflecting that the market is worried that in case of German officials, German officials will be the same as Switzerland.AT1 bonds "one hook sales".
European and American banks have happened one after another, the core is confidence.There are 5,000 banks in the United States, and several small and medium -sized banks are closed down, which of course does not constitute systemic risks, but a local research pointed out that if the crisis of faith broke out, half of the depositors suddenly withdraw funds, and 186 banks in the United States will face closure. This is not a trivial matterEssenceThe Fed Chairman Powell recently sent Xin Pan to the market, emphasizing that the official has adopted a strong and powerful action to ensure that "all deposit deposit deposits are safe", but the financial minister Yellen told Congress on the same day that he has not considered or discussed to provide guarantees for all US bank deposits. "The bottom of the package; in addition, the Bank of the United States and Britain insisted on raising interest rates to fight inflation this week, which also disappointed many investors.The financial community believes that the interest rate hike is enough. Continue to add, there will be more banks in the bank, but the central bank of the United States and Britain and Europe still insists on continuing to raise interest rates.The market and decision makers are in an attempt to force the central bank to stop raising interest rates or even reduced interest rates, and promise to guarantee all bank deposits. However, decision makers believe that the two methods are not suitable, and the market conditions are inevitably turbulent.
Of course, the United States and Europe are trapped now.After the financial tsunami in 2008, the Bank of the United States and the European Central Bank long -term quantitative loose money printing the market, which seriously distorted the market environment; excessive stimulation of fiscal policy and monetary policy in the epidemic, which also opened the Pandora box for inflation.Only to raise interest rates to fight inflation. In order to chase after, the pace of interest rate hike was too fast and too urgent, and new problems were derived.In the early 1980s, the then Federal Reserve Chairman Walker "violent interest rate hikes" successfully resolved high inflation. After the financial tsunami in 2008, the then Fed chairman Bonanke successfully supported the banking industry with quantitative easing.Now Powell needs to deal with high inflation and support banks at the same time, but the policy means to reach these two goals are self -conflict: to suppress inflation to tighten the silver roots, and rescue banks must "pump water" to ensure abundant liquidity.Whether fish and bear's paw can have both are doubtful.
Since last year, the Federal Reserve has quantified and tightened while raising interest rates (that is, reduced the balance sheet), with a maximum of $ 95 billion in a monthly "shrinkage".EssencePowell claims that this is a short -term measure to deal with tight bank liquidity, which has nothing to do with monetary policy, but the market has been accustomed to cheap money for a long time. For Wall Street and investors, this is the sign of the Federal Reserve to relax the monetary policy again.The Fed emphasized that it still wants to raise interest rates and inflation, but the market has bet that this year will not raise interest rates this year, and even reduce interest rates at the end of the year.
Tolerated inflation first helps the bank to rob the poor and the wealthy rebound
In Europe and the United States inflation, although it has fallen from a high level in the past half of the year, it is still at a high level. Taking the United States as an example, the inflation rate is still around 6%, which is significantly higher than the previous 2%goal.Back to 10.4%level.Once the European and American monetary policy is relaxed, inflation is possibly possibly.In the past few months, some financial leaders in the United States believe that monetary policy should be "adapted by things", and the inflation target should be changed to 3%or 4%.Ligger "sounds in the financial and investment circles are even more loud.If the banking industry explodes a systemic crisis, the financial tsunami is indeed a big disaster, but it is also an iron -like fact.
The damage of inflation to the poor at the grassroots level must be greater than the middle class and the rich. To help the bank to allow high inflation, it will inevitably cause criticism of the poor and rich;The cause of the public order is also huge.After the financial tsunami and European debt crisis, the European and American governments were "rescued without saving people" and saved greedy bankers, but sacrificed the general public. The politics impact derived from this anger has continued.How European and American decision makers handle the predicament of the front, which affects the overall situation of political and economic, and the consequences are unpredictable.
