Source: China Finance Magazine
Author: Kang Kai
How to choose a difficult choice between anti -inflation and risk prevention?The Fed's answer was finally revealed.
On March 22, local time, the Fed's Federal Public Marketing Committee (FOMC) announced that it raised the federal fund interest rate target range between 25 basis points to 4.75%and 5%, the highest level since October 2007.This is the ninth consecutive interest rate hike since March last year, and it has also slowed the interest rate hike to 25 basis points in a row.
After the decision is announced, the market is expected to be close to the end of the US interest rate hike cycle.Because the Federal Reserve's statement no longer includes the word "continuing interest rate hikes may be appropriate".Since March last year, each policy statement has such a statement.
But this does not mean that the interest rate cut will come soon.The latest drawing map of the Federal Reserve has not changed much from December last year.4.1%.
After the decision was announced, various types of assets responded to a large response.By -year -old US bond yields that are highly sensitive to the Fed interest rates have decreased by more than 20 basis points.The U.S. stock market rose sharply after the policy statement was released, but as the Fed Chairman Powell began to speak.As of the closing of March 22, the Dow, the NATO, and the S & P 500 index fell 1.63%, 1.60%, and 1.65%respectively to 32030.11 points, 11669.96 points, and 3936.97 points.As of the press release of financial reporters, the yield of 2 -year US bonds was 3.944%.
Jerry Chen, a senior analyst at Jiasheng Group, said in an interview with financial reporters that the banking industry in the past two weeks has quickly tightened the US financial environment, which has essentially played a role in interest rate hikes.Therefore, the Fed's attitude is a lot gentle than the last meeting. "From the perspective of the flow of funds, in addition to the recent hedging assets from the banks such as banks and other cyclical stocks, some of them have also poured into science and technology stocks.However, the market may have time to find the impact of digestive interest rate resolutions to find a new direction. "
The "Intermediate route" of the Federal Reserve
The results of the interest conference marked the re -adjustment strategy of the Fed.Just two weeks ago, the Federal Reserve President Powell also stated in Congress that the hottest inflation than expected may force the Federal Reserve to continue to increase interest rates, and the pace of interest rate hikes may be faster.However, with the exposure of risk events such as Silicon Valley Bank, the Fed's attitude has softened.
"The 25 -basis point of interest rate hikes can not only show the determination to continue to fight against inflation, but also leave room for attention to the development of the situation. There are room for advancement and retreat, so it is most likely."Recently wrote an article.
Zhongjin Company also said in the research report on March 23 that from the results, the Fed continued to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this time, in fact, he chose the "middle route".
Guo Kai believes that the Fed is facing multiple pressures such as inflation, economic growth, short -term financial stability, and medium- and long -term financial stability.risk."Because the new loan issued by the bank and the newly purchased assets can be quickly re -priced, and there are a large amount of current deposits in the bank's deposits not need to be re -priced, and other liabilities are slowly re -priced due to the viscosity of the store. In the process, the bank, the bankThe profit of the system usually not only worsens, but also improves in the short term, "he said.
Guo Kai also said that in the US banking system, Silicon Valley Bank is not a typical bank and is not representative.In addition, the problem of some small regional banks in the United States is mainly liquidity.This means that the risk of the US banking industry is relatively controllable.
Silicon Valley Bank's financial report shows that there are obviously more current deposits on their debt. These current deposits are mostly deposits of Silicon Valley technology companies, and most of them are higher than the upper limit of US $ 250,000 covered by US deposit insurance.
After the 2008 financial crisis, the US and European regulators demanded that banks hold a certain level of high liquid assets.Data from market research institutions Autonomous Research show that the current average liquidity coverage of banks in the United States is 118%.According to market research institutions HAVER data, as of the third quarter of 2022, the US financial sector leverage ratio has fallen from 123%in 2008 to 75%, which means that the country's financial system has achieved better deleveraging.
In addition, CICC also stated in the research report that from the perspective of the supply side, the pressure of inflation in the United States is still large.First of all, the supply of labor in the United States is still insufficient, and wages are still supported.Secondly, it is completely different from the high vacancy rate before the subprime loan crisis in 2008. At present, the housing vacancy rate and rental vacancy rate in the United States are at a historical low.The toughness of inflation is stronger.
In a new policy statement, the Fed has abandoned the wording of inflation "has relieved", and replaced by announced that inflation is "still at a high level."At the same time, the Fed said that employment growth is "strong".The institution is expected to have a business loss rate of 4.5%in 2023, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from December.
Liduo China Stock Market, Hui Market
Affected by factors such as the US -reserved interest rate hike 25 base points, Wind (10,000) data show that on March 23, the three major A -shares indexes rose in the afternoon in the afternoon.As of the close of the day, the Shanghai Index rose 0.64%, the Shenzhen Index rose 0.94%, and the GEM index rose 0.83%.The semiconductor sector erupts across the board, software stocks are strong, and 6G concepts, precious metals, and consumer electronics sectors have increased.
Not only that, the northbound capital accelerated the market in the afternoon, and bought 4.808 billion yuan (RMB) for a net purchase throughout the day.Among them, the Shanghai Stock Connect net purchase was 2.758 billion yuan, and the Shenzhen Stock Connect net purchase was 2.051 billion yuan.
Tao Chuan, chief macro analyst of Soochow Securities, said in an interview with financial reporters that the Fed slows down the pace of interest rate hikes to facilitate the Chinese stock market.The reason is that the global liquidity tightening cycle will be exhausted, which will promote the weakening of the US dollar and will also increase US debt interest rates to the highest point.The impact of this is: first, it drives the RMB exchange rate to strengthen and facilitate RMB assets; second, to alleviate the pressure of capital outflows from emerging market pressures; third, create space for Chinese monetary policy.
He also said that capital -intensive industries such as semiconductor, AI, biomedicine and other funds will benefit more.Because a large amount of capital investment in these industries requires interest, it is very sensitive to interest rates.If the market interest rate decreases, it will help reduce financial costs.In this way, a lot of performance can be released, which is conducive to stock prices.
In the precious metal sector such as gold, CICC said that the risk aversion caused by bank risk exposure in the near future does support the performance of gold. If the short -term risk aversion is improved, it is a bit overdrupGold) The next opportunity.
On March 23, the offshore RMB rose more than 400 points in one day.As of the press release of financial and economic reporters, the exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.8235.A -share semiconductor chip stocks rose again in the afternoon, Jingjiawei 20cm daily limit, Xinyuan shares, Obel rose over 10%, Yueling shares were previously sealed, Baiwei Storage, Hengshuo, Fa Guang Guowei, Jingchen shares, Jingchen shares, Guoxin Technology, Lanqi Technology, etc. rose more than 7%.On the same day, the spot gold had risen to 1975.92 US dollars/ounce, which was approaching the 2,000 integer level again.
For the future trend of A shares, Liu Jinjin, chief Chinese stock strategy analyst of Goldman Sachs, stated at a recent media press conference that the current high -end suggestion is still maintained for A shares.It is lower and China's economic recovery is good.
Liu Jinjin believes that since the beginning of this year, the net inflow of funds in the north has reached 23 billion US dollars, exceeding the total number of last year last year, which reflects that overseas investors are more optimistic about A shares.He believes that China's stock profit growth is expected to reach 17%this year.
"In January, (China Economy) macro data is higher than expected, followed by epidemic prevention and control and adjustment is faster than expected. Therefore, the power of China's economic recovery will be reflected from 2024 to 2023, and the economic growth is expected to be expected to be expected toIt will be adjusted from 5.5%to 6%, but lower from 5%to 4.6%in 2024, which is a trend of "front height and low". "He further explained.
However, compared with the stock market, Tao Chuan believes that the Chinese bond market may be slowed down by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes."The Fed said that it will not cut interest rates in the short term. The end point of the long-term US debt interest rate may point between 3.3%-4%, presenting a high-level shock. This means that the spread of China and the United States will be difficult to reverse in the short term.Foreign investors may not return to the Chinese bond market in the short term. "
