Source: Taiwan United Daily
Author: Chen Guanan
Recently, the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation and Zhongguang have conducted public opinion investigations on 2024 presidential candidates. Both institutions have shown that Lai Qingde has surpassed Hou Youyi, who has been leading in the past and became the leader of the 2024 election.The polls commissioned by China and China to commission Gallop also pointed out that during the blue -green and white battle, Hou's support rate had lagged behind Ke Wenzhe 0.17%, ranking third.
From the far -leading leader after the selection of the nine -in -one, to the five or five waves today, or the third, such a change of polls can't help but let many people ask, what happened?Is Hou Youyi who has not yet expressed his statement, or is it the Kuomintang?
In fact, each polling agency has its own investigation characteristics. For example, in terms of political support, the pan -green voters and middle voters of the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation are 37.1%and 35.7%, but China and China Guangguang, but China and China, China, and China and ChinaBut 20.1%and 58.5%.Obviously, the data of the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation will be more conducive to the green camp candidates because the basic market is large, and the data of China -Guangzhou is more conducive to the candidates favored by the middle voters.Therefore, the former Lai Qingde has greater advantages, and the latter Ke Wenzhe jumped to the second.
If compared with the polls of the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation in February and March, Hou Youyi's support rate has indeed decreased significantly, from 32.4%to 24.8%, Lai Qingde has significantly increased from 27.7%to 36.2%.From 19.5%to 19%.
However, what is very interesting is that Hou Youyi decreased by 7.6%, Lai Qingde increased by 8.5%, Ke Wenzhe maintained a flat disk, which was based on the basic market of political parties.The trend is close, and even the data is quite close.
Especially the imagination of all walks of life is relatively different. From February to March, even if there is a different sound inside the blue camp, the support of Hou's supporters of the Kuomintang has not decreased, and it has risen from 73.8%to 74%.The middle voters also maintained a flat disk and were still slightly higher than Lai Qingde. Only in the DPP supporters, the support rate dropped from 14.8%to 6.3%.In other words, from the perspective of political parties, the reason why the Hou Hou surrendered is not the cause of the candidate, but the changes from the basic market of political parties, that is, the blue plate shrinks, and the green market increases.
However, it is worthwhile that whether it is the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation or the China -China polls, it shows that the Kuomintang's support rate has declined, and the DPP has continued to rise.Basic political parties atrophism cannot be completely attributed to individual candidate factors, but collective responsibilities.It is not realistic to wait for the Messiah -style candidate to appear, and the basic political parties can instantly vibrate.
But it is cruel that in the election campaign of the three -footed governor, the party support of the party happened to be a key factor in the victory. As long as the basic blue of the pan is sluggish, the Kuomintang cannot return to ruling.Whoever does not solve this problem, whoever runs is lost.In order to flip the basic market, the blue camp must win the "national government" to build a policy vision for the construction of the issue of economic and people's livelihood.
It is worth noting that although the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation shows that the basic market and Lai Qingde's support rate has increased greatly, Cai Yingwen's political satisfaction has not changed much.Decoming the phenomenon.That is to say, the public did not put the misconduct of Cai's governance on Lai's head, resulting in a high support rate.This may be related to the impression of Cai Laiyi, so that Lai Qingde can get the guard card that is exempted from the burden of Cai Guan.However, when the Kuomintang attacked the issue of economic and people's livelihood, Lai could not choose whether to escort the Cai government.Cai Yingwen is the tendon of Lai Qingde.
