The Russian and Ukraine War seemed to meet Russia and Ukrainian soldiers. In fact, NATO, headed by the United States as Russia.Careful observation is not difficult to find that nuclear deterrence is an important sign to judge the strength, confidence and confidence of both parties.The author pointed out more than 10 years ago: Since the Cold War, there have been nuclear countries confrontation, and the disadvantaged party has always issued a nuclear threat.
This seems to be a little regular.Who is the real advantage on the battlefield?Instead of paying attention to the gains and losses of the city, it is better to observe who threatened to use nuclear weapons first.According to reverse speculation, whoever intimidates the atomic bomb first is the lack of confidence and lack of confidence in victory.From this point of view, Russian President Putin seems to repeatedly verify this "law" in this war.
Putin first finger NATO before the war, and a nuclear war exercise was held, which conforms to the weak of the weak in the nuclear military era.What's more distinctive is that whenever the Russian army suffered a severe frustration on the battlefield, Putin waved a nuclear stick, always reminiscent of the child who often shouted "wolf comes".Putin not only fully inherited, defended, and developed the "weak person to issue a nuclear threat" behavior, but also raised this behavior to a brand new stage.Nuclear threats are not only a symbol of strength, confidence, and lack of confidence, but also further become a sign of the situation of the conventional battlefield warfare situation, and it has become a expression of despair of war prospects.This also makes the war observation an additional ruler.
Nuclear threats are effective. After all, NATO countries are only on the side, and they dare not end. Otherwise, Poland, which was destroyed by the Russian country, could not hold back.The Eight Banners of the Eight Banners of the Emperor Taiji who suddenly killed in a stone battle.But having said that, Russia has no nuclear weapons and will not send troops in Ukraine. NATO is Sven, and it will definitely be like Russia to Ukraine: "What about I hit you?"
Putin's nuclear threat also obtains other "privileges" of conventional battlefields, and Russia can bombard the Ukrainian target without differences, but Ukraine cannot use NATO long -range weapons to attack non -military targets in Russia;In the Ukraine territory, the Ukraine can only fight inside the country and cannot enter Russia to fight; NATO provides weapons for anti -tank missiles, rockets and other anti -tank missiles such as "javelin", "poisoning", "starlight", "iron fist",Light weapons, tanks and other offensive heavy weapons can only be provided by dodging flashing toothpaste.These conventional combat privileges are given by Russian nuclear deterrence.
However, nuclear deterrence also has marginal effects, and it is impossible for nothing.Russia's use of nuclear weapons in any case is a problem that causes headaches around the world.With personal opinion, this answer exists in the law of behavior in daily life.Generally, robbers on the street cannot grab their wallets, or they are taken away after grabbing their wallets, and they will not be with the victims.It may be robbed by life savings, buying house money, marriage costs for children, and so on.One is that the wallet did not belong to the robbers himself, and the other was that the robbery failed, and there was another opportunity in the future.Regardless of history or mythology, there are very few stories that cannot be grasped with others.This metaphor is based on the basic behavior determined by human nature, and will definitely be reflected in national behavior.
What should I do if that is the land that belongs to my ancestor?Then you can ask: Who is the land before the ancestors get?In the end, the confusion of "there is chickens or eggs first": It can belong to me or he can belong to him.This is the deep meaning of diplomatic resignation "historical latitude and latitude and right and wrong."
Therefore, according to normal rational operations, if Ukraine has the ability to recover the inherent territory including Crimea and stop here, it will not directly threaten Putin's personal and Russia's survival, and the other party will not use nuclear weapons.Whether Russia uses nuclear weapons depends on the extent of NATO's pursuit of victory.In the nuclear military era, we must not pursue a comprehensive victory.Remember the famous saying of the Romans: "Live yourself and let others live." This is the secret of the Roman Empire for thousands of years, and it is also the highest principle of their internal affairs and diplomacy.
Of course, the premise of the above inference is that the decision makers are accepted.
