Lu Xi
Former Taiwan President Ma Ying -jeou's visit to the mainland has aroused widespread attention from Taiwan's political circle and the public.However, there are still different views on the impact of this interview on the election of Taiwan.This article believes that the influence of some observers on the trip of Malaysia has obvious misjudgment.
First of all, Taiwan society has formed a consensus on the sense of the ruling party in mainland China and the mainland.According to the latest beautiful island poll data, the proportion of the number of negative perceptions of mainland politics exceeds 77%, of which 47%have chosen the most negative evaluation.At the same time, the proportion of support for the 1992 consensus does not exceed 10%.Under the political spectrum given by Taiwanese society, the Kuomintang can only have a reaction to Ma Ying -jeou's visit to Lu, that is, trembling, like a enemy.
In fact, the whole party was forced to unify the caliber and reluctantly support the on the day of the Ma visit to Lu to minimize the negative impact of the event.If Beijing hopes that Ma Ying -jeou can help the Kuomintang, and even to resume the strategy of Taiwan after 2008, it is obviously unrealistic, and it can even be said to be naive.I believe that the mainland should keep this calm enough and not misjudge.
Secondly, the loss of the DPP last year was not because of the political proposition of "Anti -China Baozai", but because of the disability of the DPP itself in governance.The unified faction and some blue camps tried to associate the DPP's failure to the "losing the hearts of the people in the anti -Central Poly Taiwan", which seemed far -fetched.Taiwan's local elections and presidential elections are two different levels.In 2018, the "nine -in -one" and subsequent development explained again, which determined that local elections were internal affairs and local factions.Before the local election last year, the Democratic Progressive Party was frequent, academic, and vaccine policies. On the other hand, the Kuomintang gave greater power for local forces represented by Fu Kunzheng through the "same -boat plan".The two factors were superimposed and the DPP was defeated.If you insist on interpreting the results of "nine in one" as "anti -China -China" unpopular, it is self -deceiving, not a rational judgment.
It is undeniable that the polls show that nearly 80%of the Taiwanese believe that maintaining exchanges with mainland China is conducive to Taiwan's security, but this does not deny the mainstream of "anti -China -China" in Taiwan.The most direct refutation is: From the long run, even in the eight years after Cai Yingwen came to power, the percentage of the Taiwanese people on the same issue is stable.It is good; even so, the dislike of Taiwanese society over the mainland regime during the same period is increasing day by day.As a result, maintaining exchanges with the mainland and not accepting the "1992 Consensus" is not contradictory in Taiwan.Today, in the context of the continuous confrontation between the United States and China and the sudden rise in the Taiwan Strait risks, most of the people in Taiwan are pursuing: how to fight China in a relatively peaceful form, and it is by no means the "one country, two systems" pursued by the mainland as the ultimate goal as the ultimate goal."1992 Consensus".The above is not a fact that is difficult to observe.
As for Tsai Ing -wen, even though her internal affairs capabilities are lacking, she has successfully forged the positioning of Taiwan politics in the hearts of most people in Taiwan in the hearts of most people in Taiwan in the eight years of her term.With the "Taiwan of the Republic of China", she bypassed the controversy of "in" and "yes", which objectively persuaded the independence of some green camps, and also enabled some light blue to accept.In essence, Taiwan's consensus is Li Denghui and Chen Shui -bian's "special state -to -country relations" and "one -sided state theory".Even Lai Qingde, like a "pragmatic Taiwan independence worker", had to accept or even cater to this statement, lowered the sound of constitutional independence.
At that time, Chen Shui -bian had to accept the "1992 Consensus" proposed by Su Qi. The root cause was that the theory of the two countries was too advanced compared with the political spectrum of Taiwan at that time and did not conform to social consensus.However, after 2014, the political spectrum of Taiwanese society has changed rapidly, which has made the "1992 consensus" a claim of backward society.The Democratic Progressive Party keenly captured this and made theoretical adjustment, occupying the first -mover advantage; on the contrary, the Kuomintang was due to various factors -some of them, as well as former leaders pursuing political heritage -and other reasons -- Always in the position of "engraving the boat for sword", wrapped in.
The above is not to say that the Green Camp has no hidden worries and invincible in the election next year.On the contrary, the DPP faces another major crisis: their young votes are loose.The political basic disk accumulated from the Merid Island and Wild Lily Movement has been impossible to bring more votes to the DPP over time, but the solar flower movement has not been able to continue the basic disk of the green camp.All polls unanimously show that the first choice is the people's party with a 30 -year -old age group.More than 10 years later, when the children of these people have the right to vote, the people's party will have a broader development space.As long as Ke Wenzhe is firmly running, he is extremely trying to insert a kick in the two parties, which is never the gospel for the DPP.Therefore, compared to Ma Ying -jeou and Xia Liyan's visit to the mainland, the DPP should worry about whether Ke Wenzhe will successfully put forward the reasonable proposition of "soft guard".
Since the New Year, Lai Qingde has taken black gold and academic ethics as the entry point, and strictly govern the party. The polls show that the DPP has partially reversed the image.Even though this reversal may float on the surface, it is indeed a good start for Lai Qingde's election.Moreover, Lai has not yet announced his deputy.If Xiao Meiqin's rumors come true, the Democratic Progressive Party's election still has more room for rise.
When the new discussion between the two sides of the strait is formed and who proposes it is a great difficulty.Although the "1992 Consensus" that year was adopted by both sides of the strait, from the proposed process, it was essentially to solve the political proposition of Taiwan's leaders and the problem of disconnection between the social consensus at that time.Consensus yield adjustment.Now that Taiwan has formed a stable and new consensus, if political parties want to win, they must adjust their own claims to make it consistent with the consensus of Taiwan.
Lai Qingde's publicly stated that the "four persistence" of supporting Tsai Ing -wen is a self -adjustment of yielding to Taiwan's public opinion.On the contrary, if the Kuomintang insists on engraving the boat for sword, it will inevitably run counter to the victory.Unless there are great external forces in the short term, forcing the people of Taiwan to change their current consensus, otherwise Ma Ying -jeou visits the mainland and the election of the Kuomintang can only be sharp.All parties should not be misjudged.
The author is the National University of Singapore
Assistant professor of Li Guangyao School of Public Policy
