The survivor of the bank crisis in 2008 still survives: the Domino card effect can be

Source: Bloomberg

Author: Justina Lee, Katie Greifeld, Vildana Hajric, Isabelle Lee

Steve Chiavarone unintentionally scared anyone, but what impressed him most about the last banking crisis is that most people firmly believe that there will be no crisis.

Of course, things are contrary to their wishes.A few months later, he said that you still enter the office every day, but some things that happen at all will happen.

After the storm in 2008, the prophets of the financial industry predicted various crises.In fact, they are extremely rare in the market.However, with the closure of the three US banks and the fourth house, under the government's laboratory, after the fifth institution (in Europe, much larger) was acquired, the current situation and the incident in 2008 became a bit difficult to become a bit difficult to mutual each other.Ignore.

It is not that the scale of this crisis is enough to compare with the previous.Although the possibility of economic recession is greatly increased, officials are now more capable of dealing with the pressure of the financial system, and large banks are stronger than at the time.

Careful reason

But for the current batch of investment professionals, they seem to be unmoved to the recent incidents -maybe because of the "wolf coming" and numbness for many years -but like Chiavarone like ChiavaroneThe old man in the industry's first -hand description of the crisis was definitely the reference of the past and the teacher of the future.One of his most important information is that the situation may evolve in an incredible way a few weeks ago.He said, "This is one of the reasons I have always been careful."

In view of the speed of the evolution of the situation, and some potential problems at the moment are not at the time -such as high inflation, and the glory of the opaque private credit circle -distinguish whether investors are bold and indescribable or just complacent.It has become a more urgent thing.

Tony Pasquariello, the head of the hedge fund business, wrote in a transaction report on Thursday that the stock market considers the recent incident as a surgical blow to a specific stock group.

In order to curb the crisis of confidence, under the government's laboratory, UBS agreed to acquire Creditses Group on Sunday for $ 3.2 billion.As part of the transaction, the Bank of Swiss Bank agreed to provide UBS with a liquidity amount of 100 billion Swiss franc ($ 108 billion), and the government provided a guarantee of 9 billion Swiss francs for the potential losses of UBS's assets.

market scene is: the Nasdaq 100 Index has only performed the best week since November. The credit spread is about one -third of the level of 2008, and the US dollar is also falling.According to a transaction report from Morgan Stanley, although the volatility of U.S. Treasury bonds has reached the highest level since 2008, it is not enough to stop the hedging fund from January 2021 since January 2021The fastest speed enters individual stocks.

All this is consistent with the belief of financial pressure.It is disturbing that this is somewhat similar to the prospects that are common before the storm in 2008. The storm eventually led to more than half of the US stock market.ADAM CRISAFULLI, the founder of Vital Knowledge in New York, said one of the iconic features of banks' pressure on the bank is: the speed of the Domino card fell when the belief is disintegrated.